CROATIA VENTURES tourism and property investment

Chill Pill"
by Alexander Green, Chairman, Investment U
Investment Director, The Oxford Club

Dear Investment U Reader,

Think the best investors are the smartest investors? Think again.

In 1998, Long Term Capital Management, a hedge fund created in 1994 with the help of two Nobel Prize-winning economists, blew up. The geniuses in charge of the fund used a statistical model that they believed eliminated risk from the investment process. And if you’ve eliminated risk, why not bet large?

So they did, accumulating positions totaling $1.25 trillion. Big mistake. The fund’s investors lost billions. To clean up the resulting mess, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan had to orchestrate a buyout by 14 major investment banks.

If only this were an isolated example…

Mensa is a society that welcomes people from all walks of life, provided their IQ is in the top 2% of the population. Unfortunately, these folks could stand to pick up a copy of “Investing for Dummies.” During a recent 15-year period when the S&P 500 had average annual returns of 15.3%, the Mensa Investment Club’s performance averaged returns of just 2.5% percent.

That isn’t just lagging performance. It’s more like getting left on the station platform.

Use Your "EQ," Not Your IQ

It turns out Daniel Goleman was right. In the 90s, he was the guy promoting the notion that success is more closely tied to emotional intelligence than education or knowledge.

In his book “Emotional Intelligence,” he writes, “As we all know from experience, when it comes to shaping our decisions and our actions, feeling counts every bit as much – and often more – than thought... Passions overwhelm reason time and again.”

Goleman argues that two key aspects of emotional intelligence are impulse control and persistence. And these are exactly the two qualities that will keep you from abandoning your investment strategy in a panic.

Take the last four months, as an example. The market began a meltdown in early August when it became apparent that rising defaults in the subprime market were creating a liquidity crisis in world credit markets. As stocks sunk lower, many investors feared the worst and bailed out.

Then the Fed began cutting rates aggressively and the market rebounded smartly. Investors began to feel optimistic again and piled back in. The market promptly went back into the tank. Many of the same Nervous Nellies sold out again in mid-November. Only to see the Dow soar nearly 700 points over the next three weeks.

Don’t look for logical explanations of what’s going on here. It’s not rational behavior that causes these dramatic short-term swings. It’s fear and greed, plain and simple. And, as we’re still in the early innings of this credit crunch, the volatility is likely to be with us awhile.

What does this mean for you as an investor? It means you need to use your EQ, not your IQ:

1. Do a reality check. Recognize that investing in stocks means your account value is bound to sustain wide fluctuations from time to time. It’s unrealistic to think you’re going to earn the superior returns only stocks can give while watching your brokerage account rise as steadily as a savings account.

2. Automate your investments. If you’re in the early stages of wealth accumulation, use a discipline like dollar-cost averaging – investing a consistent amount at regular intervals – to take advantage of the market’s occasional swoons.

3. Follow a trading discipline that negates emotional decision-making. Trailing stops, for example, don’t feel fear, greed, hope, envy, pride or jealousy.

4. Resist the urge to “do something.” It’s one thing to feel fearful about the market. It’s quite another to let that fear trump your well-laid investment plans.

Studies in Behavioral Finance clearly demonstrate that it’s not your store of market knowledge that is most likely to determine your success as an investor. It’s whether or not you let your emotions dictate your actions.

I’m not saying you shouldn’t feel emotional from time to time. After all, we’re only human. But it’s safe to say that if you let those emotions control your investment decisions, eventually you’re going to feel something entirely different…

Regret.

Good investing,


As always, TMF is a wonderful educational tool regarding financial matters. What follows is a random collection of points I've learned from other posters over the last 6 to 12months or so, on how to maximise your profits on your short positions...




1. Being Effective

To succeed in shorting there needs to be a catalyst. If everything's rosey, you'll get nowhere. You need a smokescreen... there's no smoke without fire. Choose a share or sector where there are known issues.

2. Identity

To have an effect, you don't want to be seen as having a negative history. Your current negative stance shouldn't look like your normal stance. If you already have an established profile on a message board, you can use that, although any attempt to push things beyond the sensible may wreck your profile, that may not bother you (it may help your credibility for enough time to achieve your aims ... you may even have been intentionally building up your profile for just this opportunity), but if it does it's easy to set up a new profile. This won't have any history, either postive or negative.

And, afterall, message boards get new posters all the time, so a newbie posting won't in itself raise suspicions. In fact, why stop at one?

3. Choice of name

If you're creating a new profile, everyone expects share rampers/derampers to have quite macho or dynamic names. To hide your true intentions try to think of a name that's cuddly, or ideally has a feminine aura. This will keep other poster's guards down. Also, when posting coming across as a naïve newbie will help keep peoples guards down. If anyone questions why you've suddenly appeared and taken an interest in a share when you are so negative, see section 13.

4. Negative Image - Pushing via repetition

Once you've got your persona, the simplest thing to do is just state your opinion. Over and over and over again. One liners are more than enough. Just keep repeating... this company is going out of business. Again, and again, and again. Don't worry if others respond with reasons to the contrary. Don't engage. Just keep repeating. This puts doubt into other reader's minds about whether they should be risking their money.

5. Negative Image - Enhancing Third Parties

In section 1 you chose a sector with problems. This helps. There will be respected posters who will post about the problems, warning others of them. These posts will be genuinely meant, and conatin genuine reasoning and fact.

Recommend these posts. The more people that recommend them, the more people will read them. You will also achieve the effect of elevating those poster's egos, potentially encouraging them to post more. Again keep recommending them. Get a virtuous cycle going.

You can also add your one liner insusbtantial comments to their threads to increase the apparent negativity. (Section 4)

6. Negative Image - Incorrect Information

Message boards are full of incorrect information. Add your own. For example who would trust directors with no shares in their company? Whether true or not, keep repeatedly (section 4) stating that the directors mustn't have confidence if they don't own shares in their own company. Repetition is the key. Very few would bother to confirm these facts, and if anyone posts a correction, just ignore it. Keep repeating the message. Any corrections will soon fade by the wayside.

7. Negative Image - Rumours ... the shorters friend

The slighest whisper of bad news, make sure people know of it. You don't need to provide a reference for it to be effective. In fact, who knows who starts rumours? Just make up a story, and if anyone asks where you got the info, just say it was offline and be vague to prevent anyone checking. People will be unsure whether to believe you or not, but that doesn't matter, it will still put doubt into potential investors minds helping them hold off.

8. Negative Image - The Trend is your friend

Whenever the shareprice drops this is a godsend. Make the most of it. Increase your postings of one liners stating the company is going out of business. This will increase the fear in potential buyers causing them to hold off their purchases. Keep fueling the negative cycle.

9. Facts - Lies

Others will post facts trying to stipulate why things aren't as bad as is being made out. Circumstance change for companies, and you can captialise on this. How would anyone know what the directors knew in advance? Make the most of it... keep claiming the directors are liars. No-one can prove otherwise... you're basically saying that any 'facts' that anyone could use against you are fabricated... and they can't prove otherwise. This stops those with a positive stance getting that killer point across that kills your required bearish stance. This is your safety. If you take this stance, no-one will be able to rationally kill your stance.

10. History - Evoke the middle ages

Well almost. There are plenty of examples in history that are now seen as extremely bad. Just look at the soup queues in the US in the 1929/1930s depression! Since predicting the future is almost impossible, keep eluding to such periods in history. This will help increase the fear and doubt. All it needs is potential buyers to hold off their purchases... fear of the future is your amunition.

11. Lead By Example - Manage your herd

People like to see others doing the same to sort of validate their decisions. Pretend you have bought (or you may even have genuinely bought a rally to day trade!). Then post that you are selling. This then adds more weight to your rationale, irrespective of how weak that rationale may be. And remember, no-one can actually tell what your trades are, so you can make some up.

In fact, emphasise your losses so far. That way people are even less likely to accuse you of bravado, and therefore think you're on the level. If anyone tries to convince you otherwise, you know the drill... fear and doubt. Keep fueling their fear of the unknown... it's future losses that matter, not historic profits. If anyone tries to present facts to help you 'change your mind', refer to section 9.

12. Teamwork

With a bit of practice you'll straight away spot other like minded posters. Join in with them. Recommend their posts, add your own posts (section 4) agreeing with them. Build up a critical mass of people. With enough fear and doubt across posts, uncertainty and lack of individual strength of charactor regarding their investment decisions will help put off many potential buyers. If you play it right, no individual could be seen as trying to manipulate the market, but as a collective, your goal will be achieved.

13. Motiviation - Admit nothing

Don't let people know your motives. Remember section 3? Play on this by pretending your presence is out of concern for shareholders and their finances. You don't afterall like seeing others lose money do you? I said, do you?

Potentially you could pretend to be a buyer in waiting, but expecting much cheaper prices. This has the advantage in the psychology that no-one likes to think the next man has bought the same thing cheaper than they have. If they think another poster looks like they're going to get their shares cheaper than the current price, this will cause current potential buyers to hold off, because they will also want that better price, no matter how (un)likely that price is.

Again, the trend is your friend. Whenever the price drops, bring this one up again to stop the bottom fishers halting the slide. Why buy toady when your fellow poster is going to be buying the same thing cheaper tomorrow! What a Fool you'd be!

If the price turns, just remind everyone it's a sucker's rally. Again, eluding to the fact that their neighbours/fellow posters will again be buying cheaper in a few days time. Afterall, what a Fool you'd be to buy the peak of a bounce in a bear trend.

14. Facts - Be careful

Facts should be avoided at any cost. Never use a fact in your rationale. This is critical. A fact would allow a context to be put on your position. And that's bad. You want to always be able to make things out as being worse than they are. Facts would put a stop in that! If anyone else uses facts, or asks you to use facts, refer to section 9.

You could pretend to use 'facts' but make sure these are tangential to any point of substance. For example, when stating how bad the economy is going to be, don't use sensible facts like IMF predictions, etc. Instead use 'facts' like how long the queues to the bread kitchens were in the great depression. Even if those facts weren't asked for or relevant. Think like a politician.

15. Subtlety

A good card counter will ensure they don't play the perfect game. Likewise, selectively and strategically throw some decoys. Don't make your intentions too obvious by giving away too many clues. In fact, an occasional forray into the bulls camp will help give you a genuine appearance, and make it look like you're basing your opinion on real time facts and events. Making your imminent and inevitable switch back to the bears camp seem all the more genuine.

16. Finally...

Whatever you do, make sure to report this post as soon as possible. Others mustn't be aware of your strategy. Ignorance on the part of others is (financial) bliss (for you).