Supreme Share Discussion Threads

[dexterburt1] 26/3/2024 13:58

Finally moving again, with some decent volume.

[monet] 06/3/2024 16:52

No reason now why we shouldn't go back up to £1.30

[boonboon] 06/3/2024 16:44

A bit more detail. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/06/jeremy-hunt-tax-vaping-products-raise-tobacco-dutyAlso more money for enforcement which should help crack down on illegal vapes.Overall a positive for us I'd say.

[slopsjon2] 06/3/2024 14:27

"Duty to be introduced on vaping liquids for the first time in October 2026. A one-off increase in tobacco duty will be made at the same time."

[boonboon] 06/3/2024 14:23

Did tobacco go up straight away or not till 2026 either?If straight away could mean more people switch.

[dr biotech] 06/3/2024 13:47

Will be interesting to see how it will work. Vape liquid is mostly propylene glycol (not to be confused with ethylene glycol which is antifreeze) and a few flavours etc. Its not going to be that difficult to make your own - or buy the flavours and just dilute with the glycol. Its easy to tax tobacco as you can't grow your own leaf.

Thats probably one of the reasons why its going to take so long to implement.

[aishah] 06/3/2024 13:28

Yep, just backed up the truck here.

[dr biotech] 06/3/2024 13:26

Vape tax in Oct 2026. Thats kicked the can quite a long way down the road..

[dr biotech] 04/3/2024 15:32

From what I've read they want to tax it to put it out of the reach of children (and to squeeze milk vapers for what they can get). But its got to be cheaper than smoking. And have a way of controlling it. Probably won't be as bad a the drop in the share price suggests, but will take a while to find out.

[gb904150] 04/3/2024 14:03

Good points boonboon. In which case it will be interesting to see the detail.

As you say....some trading down so perhaps the overall effect is difficult to gauge.

One of the things I like with 88vape is they are a middle-aged vaper brand. I'd say those demographics aren't going to quibble over some price rises and are probably quite happy with their vaping choice.

Consolidation will be the main advantage. SUP have already shown their capability to integrate cuts ice and liberty flights seamlessly.

The downside are the low barriers to entry in the vaping market...but the extra regs also help the larger players.

[boonboon] 04/3/2024 13:58

Whilst I agree with the majority of this. I don't necessarily agree that it is the lower priced brands that will benefit.If it's like alcohol the tax will be per unit not on the resale cost.Let's assume it's £1 a unit. That will double the price of 88vape to £2 a 100% increase.A brand that currently sells for £4 will see it's price increase to £5 which is only a 25% increase.Now we might see some trade down to the lower cost brands which will benefit us. However as we also supply elf bar I think we've got good diversification across the price points.

[gb904150] 04/3/2024 13:36

I like that line Kevph "This secures future earnings as the govt gets in on the act and removes the armagedon scenario"

yes....the government want in on this vaping action. They want it for the taxes.

So now we have

Tiny vape co's who can't/won't comply with regs will get bought up and integrated.
Importers will be hit by vape import taxes. Favours domestic producers like us.
High cost vape brands (£4/10ml) will get hit.
Low cost vape brands (88vape) will benefit.
Big tobacco who want to buy us (need to rapidly increase revs from NGP's).
Big government who want to a share of our revenues via taxes.

Looks like a lot of tailwinds.

I think 88vape will get bought up eventually by big tobacco. It is an attractive way to acquire a large number of vapers quickly as well removing a threat from the market (low cost producer).

[kevph] 04/3/2024 12:24

Agree with all this. The big threat was to make Vapes prescription only IMO or outright ban. The fact there will be a tax is a huge positive. This secures future earnings as the govt gets in on the act and removes the armagedon scenario. Strange reaction really...

[gb904150] 04/3/2024 12:15

JohnDoe23 - you are calling this right.

I've added a few more.

It seems there is a familiar pattern.

SUP announces great results, trading volumes, profits, buybacks etc. share price adds 30%.
Government threatens legislation, taxes, complication. share price loses 30%.

The point is regulation, taxes and govt complication favours big players like SUP who can respond, comply and consolidate by buying up the weaker players. SUP have already done that.

Tax on vapes isn't going to lead to any less vaping until taxes hit a critical point where vapes are no longer be affordable. What was that price point for a pack of cigarettes? £8? £10

But vaping is starting out such a low cost it will have zero effect.

Sell price on 10ml 88vape liquid - £1.


What do we think cost price is on that? 30p? So 88vape make 70p.

If the govt makes it so there is 50% tax. The new RRP is £2.

The govt now makes £1.
88vape (SUP) will still be making their 70p.

It is the consumer who will pay the tax. Not vape manufacturers.

I doubt the tax will be as hefty as that to start with.



Here they suggest an extra £1.40 tax on a £4 bottle of 10ml liquid. For an extra £72 or so cost for the year.

Compared to cigarettes vapes are so cheap so i think the impact is minimal and it's all for show.

I think around 85% of cigarette price is tax. Back in 2015 it was 83% according to this:




hxxps://news.sky.com/story/spring-budget-2024-what-to-expect-from-tax-cuts-to-vaping-duty-13081493


Vape duty

The same report said Mr Hunt is considering a "vaping products levy" which would be paid on imports and by manufacturers of vapes in an attempt to make the habit unaffordable for children.

The tax will be specifically on the liquid in vapes, with higher duties for products with more nicotine. However, to ensure vaping remains a cheaper alternative to smoking, there will also be a one-off increase in tobacco duty, with the two measures expected to raise £500m by 2028/2029, the report said.

Downing Street confirmed to Sky News that the levy is being considered "as an option".

[boonboon] 04/3/2024 10:02

We had one less than 6 weeks ago.I expect we're currently down as there is a chance vaping will be taxed in the budget this week. I don't expect this will have a significant impact. It might even push authorities to clamp down harder on illegal vapes as they'll lose revenue.I expect we might get an update from the company within the next week or so if any tax is introduced in the budget.

[cestnous] 04/3/2024 09:56

Getting close to my stop loss. We need a trading statement asap

[johndoe23] 04/3/2024 09:17

Trading range buy 100 sell 130

[dexterburt1] 04/3/2024 09:17

Sentiment is destroyed in this stock. I feel for management as they're doing an excellent job. You have to wonder at what point would they take this private again.

[dr know] 04/3/2024 09:01

Trading significantly ahead of current FY 2024 market expectations, FY 2025 outlook unaffected by proposed changes in Vaping laws, share buyback started, yet it continues to fall. Is this a huge bargain or do the sellers know something we don't ?

[basem1] 29/2/2024 12:25

Is Shore capitals office closed this weekI thought we would see some buybacks at this stupid level

[basem1] 28/2/2024 15:20

Just added a further 15000 at 118

[adamb1978] 27/2/2024 08:40

Agree with Aishah. A tax on vaping won't dent demand at all IMO

[hammergaumet] 27/2/2024 08:28

If anything would be positive because the more reliant on vape tax that govt funding becomes, the less likely they would be to try something more fatal like prescriptions

[hammergaumet] 27/2/2024 08:26

Of course there will be more taxation on vapes in future. Govt always target addictive items, and they will want to replace lost tax on cigs. If you study history of taxing cigs, the tax is not bad for industry.