Macfarlane Share Discussion Threads

[pireric] 29/3/2024 17:27

Good to see some more sustained interest in MACF over past months

Eric

[bsdjj] 17/3/2024 15:29

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mailplus/article-13204473/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-UPDATE-Market-leader-Macfarlane-stays-ahead-pack.html

[nchanning] 13/3/2024 12:07

It's really hard to lose making acquisitions at this price . Perhaps there are not enough left in the UK to use all of the cashflow, but Germany offers a new pipeline . After the economic brutality of the last couple of years perhaps there will be a few more vendors around in the UK anyway

[cwa1] 11/12/2023 10:35

Double apologies here, as EC says it was McBride(up 10%) rather than Macfarlane that was mentioned in SCSW tipsheet. Mixed up my MACS, sorry! As I said, back to sleep now...

[effortless cool] 11/12/2023 08:50

That was McBride (MCB), which has had a good morning!

[cwa1] 11/12/2023 08:35

Saw a poster over on Stockopedia saying that it was tipped by SCSW(NAP for next year or something similar) but if this is the type of response that engenders then it's not exactly price moving!

[effortless cool] 11/12/2023 08:24

I didn't know whether to be excited or alarmed .... and then it opened flat!

[cwa1] 11/12/2023 08:13

Looks like nothing! I'd read elsewhere it was tipped by a tipsheet-but there seems to be no sign of the usual interest that that engenders. Apologies and back to sleep :-)

[cwa1] 11/12/2023 07:37

Will be interesting to see how this performs today!

[pireric] 31/10/2023 08:59

Crucible Clarity Fund takes over 3% holding

Eric

[pireric] 26/10/2023 07:36

Moderately positive implications for MACF from DS Smith today

" As expected, like for like corrugated box volume performance has improved quarter on quarter, albeit remaining below the prior year.

· Pricing has remained more resilient than expected, reflecting our strong customer relationships, ongoing innovation and high service levels. Reduced input costs and cost mitigation efforts have broadly offset the price declines."

This should not be an 8x P/E stock, which is the market is currently putting it on.

Eric

[effortless cool] 21/10/2023 12:59

pieric - good call. Consensus figures on Stockopedia now fixed at the levels you quote.

[nchanning] 19/10/2023 10:22

I like the acquisition too , if Macfarlane was trading on 15 times earnings . MACF on about 5.5 x EV/EBITDA , so very comparable to the acquisition and a 300m revenue business with multiple revenue lines is considerably higher quality than a tiny 3m revenue packaging company and should command a much higher multiple . At the very least every textbook on capital allocation would tell you when your stock falls to incredibly cheap levels stop paying a dividend and start buying back stock . I genuinely think if the stock was half this level management would continue to say 'we know the dividend is important' and 'we have been successful with acquisitions in the past so we're going to do more.

[illiswilgig] 19/10/2023 10:04

I liked the recent acquisition. Good to see management still thinking out of their box :-) I suspect defence will be a growing sector for a few years unfortunately.

Perhaps the drop in consensus is partly cause of more weakness in the price? On the other hand it sets the oompany up nicely for beating market expectations in a few months time?

I'd be topping up if I had spare cash around. But I don't - partly because so many good companies are getting cheaper.

cheers

[nchanning] 19/10/2023 09:56

Can only wish I had more cash to invest in Uk small caps now , so many attractive opportunities sitting in plain sight . The only shame is that UK CEO's don't seem to understand buybacks at all . At these levels Macfarlane should be hoovering up it's own stock , surely far better value than any acquisitions they're going to make . A 12% free cash flow yield , for a group with the track record ,the scale and diversity of Macfarlane can't be beaten

[spooky] 12/10/2023 11:25

Thank you Effortless

[effortless cool] 12/10/2023 10:50

No. The change in consensus forecasts is due to Berenberg initiating coverage (with a 'buy' recommendation).

I suspect that they are using unadjusted earnings, compared to adjusted earnings used by Shore Capital and Investec, thus causing an apparent reduction in consensus expectations when they have been added in.

[spooky] 12/10/2023 10:32

Earnings downgrade last week?

[effortless cool] 02/10/2023 10:37

Shore Capital have put through some small upgrades to forecasts on the back of this acquisition.

[effortless cool] 02/10/2023 08:47

NChanning,

The benefit from operational gearing is the foundation of MACF's whole "buy and build" business model. Add top line/profit but hold OpEx (and pension liabilities) relatively constant.

Another nice little addition today: B&D 2010 Group.

[nchanning] 06/9/2023 14:28

Don't see Macfarlane as particular operationally geared as lowish central costs and low gross margin , mostly just bolting on revenues and profits of acquired businesses and leaving them intact

[effortless cool] 30/8/2023 14:40

NChanning,

The operational gearing effect of the acquisitions means that their benefit to MACF's bottom line is materially greater than you imply. I do agree, however, that a share buyback programme would be well worth while at the current price.

[bscuit] 30/8/2023 13:29

I was underwhelmed. About 9 years ago there was a suggestion that Bunzl might target it.it. Seems attractive again.