Toluna Share Discussion Threads

[kenmitch] 16/2/2011 08:46

A brilliant deal for TOL shareholders - all the better for being in cash thanks to the arrangement by EVT and Invesco to make that possible.With short term risks for Toluna and the need for more investment this looks an ideal time to take the Company private and I'm very pleased with the price too. Without such a deal now, and bearing in mind the trading update, it is unlikely that the Toluna share price would have done much and might even have come under short term pressure. OK that would have provided TOL investors with a chance to top up lower ahead of strong performance, but that could have meant another year or two, instead of which we get a 30% uplift in the share price now and are able to realise the profit.

This is all good news for EVT shareholders too, and EVT will now have more time for their other very promising investments and they are going to have a lot more cash from June too. EVT shares are far too low even after the bounce following the TOL news and look well worth buying and there should be very little downside risk with that substantial discount to NAV. And if the share price does drift lower then EVT will be an even better buy.

This is yet another example of Richard Bernstein's deal making and Management qualities.

Yes, the EVT share price performance has bee disappointing but in the end again they have pulled a rabbit out of the hat.

[wjccghcc] 14/2/2011 13:43

I suppose the market never really fell in love with these. The MBO will allow them to increase Asia Pacific investment at the short-term cost of reduced profitability.

A 40% gain isn't bad and the prospects of getting more in the next few years aren't that high so I'm happy to take the cash. Farewell TOL.

[kenmitch] 28/10/2010 16:07

Tipped in Shares Magazine today. Nothing much new - the same positive case. Story of the brilliant Greenfield/ISS buy again + suggestion that TOL will improve their 8.7% margins in 2008 nearer to their own 21.8%. House broker Numis predicts overall operating margins will recover to 17% by 2011. EPS they say should go from 12.5p in 2009 to 19.3p next year. That, says Shares looks cheap given the £128 market cap's growth prospects.

Needless to add that has done nothing for the share price - yet! Achieve (or better still exceed) those targets and then surely the shares will respond.

[kenmitch] 23/9/2010 17:38

Yes, surprisingly little discussion of outstanding results - profits tripled, dividend doubled, big increase in cash and Greenfield confirmed as a bargain priced acquistion that has already been successfully integrated.

Broker Numis has initiated coverage with this buy note.

Numis: ToLuna (Buy, TP: 374p) Social Engagement

ToLuna is one of the world's largest online panel and survey technology providers to the market research industry. The group offers market research and media agencies and corporates access to a panel of respondents across 34 countries, and products ranging from 'sample only' to custom panels allowing clients to develop and maintain their own branded, bespoke online communities. ToLuna employs a community approach to panel recruitment and management through toluna.com; a social media site where members can create profiles, interact with each other, complete surveys for reward points and generate their own surveys. This has several advantages in our view. First, by providing benefits above and beyond financial rewards, ToLuna achieves a high level of panel participation and engagement, which leads to lower recruitment costs, higher response rates, lower churn and higher quality data. Secondly, as well as these cost and quality advantages, the community approach to data collection also increases the range of products available and in turn the potential market size. The unique approach to panel recruitment and maintenance is supported by a best-in-class technology infrastructure that was significantly strengthened through the acquisition of Internet Survey Solutions (ISS) division of Greenfield Online from Microsoft in 2009. ToLuna now has a diversified portfolio of panel respondent technologies, providing multiple channels of survey completion. These direct the right survey to the right panellist efficiently and, where possible, automatically. In our opinion the depth of ToLuna's respondent technology gives the group a competitive advantage and forms a key part of the investment case. We believe that with the transformational acquisition of ISS now integrated, ToLuna has achieved critical mass in a fast growing market and expect its innovative approach to online data collection to be reflected in strong organic growth; we also see further upside from bolt-on acquisitions. We initiate with a target price of 374p and a Buy recommendation.

[dd776] 20/9/2010 14:35

so much discusiion
'

[nellie1973] 16/9/2010 17:03

Broker upgrade today-BUY rating

[dd776] 10/9/2010 04:35

not much to discuss on this company

[kenmitch] 11/6/2010 12:48

Yes, and he got them cheaper than me too, and bought a lot more!

Richard Bernstein is Chief Executive of Eurovestech and it was possibly thanks to him that EVT bought Toluna in the first place, and he has now doubled his holding.

The shares look an excellent longer term lockaway at this price. It's the sort of Company that could attract a bid in time too, though the Director buy today means that's unlikely to happen soon.

[theophilus] 11/6/2010 08:15

Clearly one of the directors agrees with you.

A purchase of 50,000.

Th.

[kenmitch] 10/6/2010 20:30

Despite a recent very positive trading statement the share price has continued to fall until today when there were quite a few traded too. The share price has now lost all the gains since January.

I bought some yesterday - just ahead of the price falling even further! - as the share price now is back where it was ahead of the transformational Greenfields buy.

Since there has only been good news and more of the same is likely, the current buying price in the mid 230s looked too good to miss.

Anyone else here who either agrees or disagrees?

[kenmitch] 19/3/2010 19:40

Your timing could be very good. Results due fairly soon. These might be the trigger for a re-rating. Considering the upbeat pre close statement a negative surprise is very unlikely.

[ambuchanan12] 18/3/2010 21:20

any body out there? just dipped my toe in...

[kenmitch] 02/2/2010 09:50

There is a good chance that profits will continue - maybe by increasing amounts too - to beat forecasts to bring that PE down well below 15.

Also imo quality wise and for all sorts of other reasons TOL is in a different league to RNOW.

e.g TOL, unlike RNOW and YOU has not put a foot wrong so far. It deserves a premium rating and a forward PE in the mid teens is quite low for such a fast growing Company.

A successful bid would have to be at a significantly higher price surely? Perhaps more likely is that TOL will continue to be very successful, profits will rise increasingly fast and the shares will perform very well over the next two to three years. As should the shares of Eurovestech who still hold 29.6% of Toluna.

btw. Invesco Perpetual also hold 29% of Toluna - a real vote of confidence.

[wjccghcc] 01/2/2010 21:14

Even after the upgrade, they're on a current year PE of 24 dropping to 16 next year. RNOW was bought on a PE of 15 and their performance was comparable so it's hard to see the immediate value here. Having said that, they're vert well run and there's unlikely to be much downside.

[kenmitch] 01/2/2010 20:05

A bit surprising to see no posts on the excellent Toluna trading update today.

Key details

Underlying ptp expected to be over 10% ahead of expectations at £7 million.

Confirmation that the Greenfield Online acquisition - see original post for more on this - at a bargain price, is bedding in well with "significant synergies being achieved ahead of management expectations."

Strong cash flow with net cash at the year end in excess of £10 million.

Results expected in April.

Share price reaction? A gain of just 4p for Toluna and a token 0.25p for EVT.

That's a shame for those holding. Maybe a solution for more recognition of two outstanding Companies is a move to the Main Market?

Also broker Cenkos have issued another Toluna buy note today. And they anticipate upgrading their profit forecasts when the full year results are issued in April.

Aside from the better than expected profits forecast and the big increase in cash - Cenkos I think had anticipated £2.2 million for end 2010 and they have over £10 million - the other big plus today is confirmation that the Greenfield acquisition is bedding in so well and will be a key driver of future profits.

I dont know what it will take to get the EVT and Toluna share prices really moving - but at least with both in such fine fettle the downside should be very limited, and if it happens with another big market tumble then it will be a chance to buy more shares in two very successful Companies. More likely surely is that the share prices will move up further soon - and it isn't long now before EVT update on what they intend doing with the surplus cash from their recent sale of KSS Retail.

I'll post this on the Toluna thread as well - though there may not be much here that regular readers of the two threads didn't know already.

[theophilus] 05/1/2010 21:35

A few years ago this one was part of a group of 'glamour stocks' but then the sector appears to have fallen out of favour.

Some had really large falls but Tol did not fall anywhere as far as You and in fact there has recently been some interesting buying which has produced quite a sizeable rise in share price.

Not cheap in terms of PE but one worth keeping any eye on.

Cheers


Th.

[theophilus] 19/11/2009 07:51

I know that this is well out of date but it does deserve a mention and underlines some of the comments above re. the acquisition.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

---Award Win (Toluna)

TIDMTOL

RNS Number : 9859A
ToLuna plc
19 October 2009

ToLuna plc
("ToLuna" or the "Company")


ToLuna receives the AIM Award for Transaction of the Year!


The Company is pleased to announce that at the annual AIM Awards Dinner held on 15 October 2009 it received the AIM award for the Transaction of the Year.


This prestigious award recognises a company that has been transformed by a
single financial or commercial transaction during the period under review.


According to the judging panel: "The company chosen to receive this award must
have displayed a significant achievement in transforming itself, literally at a stroke, and thereby creating significant shareholder value."


The Company received this award following its recent acquisition of the business and assets of the Internet Survey Solutions division of Greenfield Online Inc from Microsoft Corp. in July 2009 for $40 million.


Frederic-Charles Petit commented:


"We are pleased to receive this award which is showing the recognition of the
AIM community of the strategic value of our recent acquisition of Greenfield
Online ISS. Creating the world leader in our industry and being rewarded for it is both an achievement for our staff across the globe as well supporting our goal of being the company that can answer from 1 to hundreds of questions by anyone, anytime and anywhere".

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Th.




----------------------------------------------------------------------------

[kenmitch] 08/10/2009 21:06

Thanks longshanks.

I did look at BJU a long time ago but didn't buy - can't remember why not - and haven't really looked at it since so can't give any opinion remotely worth taking any notice of. Might have another look after your prompt.

Interesting points in your first para that I hadn't thought of.

I agree that TOL has enormous potential and unlike YOU has not disappointed so far. But you're right. Brilliant though the Greenfield buy almost certainly was - and at what a price - the share price will not take off until they have proved that it was, as you call it, an inspired buy.

[longshanks] 07/10/2009 07:23

Thanks for the excellent research kenmitch. Came to this via EVT - but looking generally at firms involved in Market Research. I think this market is one that will change radically over the next 20 years and evolve into a completely different beast. Companies like WPP will sweat under their massive corporate belly - just as B.A. is struggling now with competition from the likes of Ryan Air and Easyjet. Just as financial leverage was the key to exceptional profitability in the 80's and 90's - I firmly believe that human leverage (the ability to get more out of fewer human resources) will be the main driver for the most successful business of the 10's and 20's.

TOL looks to be one of those companies growing nicely - good FTSE250 or even FTSE100 potential over the long term. The acquisition of Greenfield online looks inspired - though I guess it will take 6 months figures from this for the market to "believe the story".

Looking wider than ToLuna, I think YouGov will struggle to maintain/gain market share - because they just don't appear to be adapting fast enough. One other firm I have looked at (and invested in) is relative tiddler, BJU. Is this on your monitor list at all - and if so - would appreciate your opinion.

[kenmitch] 29/6/2009 10:51

I've posted on the ADVFN Eurovestech bb about the recent good Toluna and EVT (KSS) news. That bb has a bit more life than this one.

Surprising to see so few TOL shares traded following such news, and the confirmation of what a bargain it seems to be. See the EVT bb for the Daily Mail Geoff Foster market comment on it, if you haven't already read it.

[ninjatnut] 22/5/2009 16:11

Wow 130k shares sold and the market did not move! Who is going to buy them?

[kenmitch] 16/4/2009 11:43

Yes excellent results, and they make a nonsense of the idiotic posts above suggesting, without giving any reasons, a share price of 20p.

Very impressive too when compared with the problems YOU faced going down the dangerous big acquisition route.

Increase in the dividend again too. Can't find any obvious minus points and they are coping with the downturn as well as expected...... except that the shares have done superbly while so many others have tumbled. The share price rose from January to December last year - not many others did that. And they have held on to those gains this year.

These results show that that impressive share price performance is fully deserved.

But unfortunately it also means that share price upside potential is more limited compared with some others that have fallen massively and now have huge recovery potential - or have already recovered and multi bagged.

The best way in to TOL is to buy EVT as their share price has halved from the peak on no bad news and EVT still own around 50% of TOL.

What EVT need to get their share price moving up again is proper good news from Magenta, KSS and MIST especially. The first two have already proved excellent investments, but despite that so far Magenta especially, and more recent investment MIST have not done as well as hoped. But that could easily change so monitor and look to buy EVT on the first whiff of good news as then their share price could fly.