Colefax Share Discussion Threads

[woozle1] 11/2/2024 12:09

If the interest is that low it would imply either (i) treasury management is poor or (ii) that net cash balances are only high at period end.

[salver2] 30/1/2024 15:27

I agree with all your comments Jane , the management usually under promise and overdeliver and I suppose it suits them to have the share price ridiculously low to buyback another large slug later in the year -this share should in my opinion be north of £10 a share -a post tax earnings figure of around 5.5 million plus around 20 million cash at the end of the year at 8 times earnings would make them just over £10 a share

[jane deer] 30/1/2024 14:52

Salver 2

I agree with you. Strip out the cash (£17m) and the PE looks around 4 times FY24 (maybe lower). My only two concerns are: 1) the weakish outlook statement for FY25, although management always seem to be cautious; 2) I cannot understand how interest earned can only be £40k on an average cash balance of c£20m during the half year - that implies they are getting around 0.4%pa interest. I would think they should be getting 10x this amount.

[salver2] 01/9/2023 10:32

Exactly but for long term privates not so much -they run a mean tight ship here-they get the buyback done on the day of the agm -when they will probably announce trading is better than expected!

[essentialinvestor] 01/9/2023 10:04

Parsimonious!, but another wedge of equity retired. It's an easy out
for institutional investors.

[salver2] 01/9/2023 09:20

An unattractive offer -I’m keeping all my shares-at this price the Co with 6.2 million shares has a market cap of about 46.5 million-which by the end of the year will still have over 15 million cash -so this luxury goods company has a pe of around 6 on current forecasts plus its cash-it should be north of 10 pounds a share

[essentialinvestor] 30/1/2023 13:57

This was my end of year target, bloody hell!, turned out lovely.

[salver2] 30/1/2023 10:14

Still rising but even now not even 7 times earnings plus cash

[salver2] 29/1/2023 19:16

I normally hate the word no brainier and at risk of upsetting disco - who seems to spend all his time worrying about rampers rather than actually buying anything- but to be able to buy as you did a luxury goods company on a pe of 4 plus it’s cash is truly a gift horse and to be honest even at say 9 or 10 pounds a share would still be cheap ( my own opinion)

[essentialinvestor] 29/1/2023 14:53

My last buys nicely timed for once Salver.

It was worth starting a new board following the fall in the share price to highlight the longer term value. Consistent share count reduction a big factor in the value case.

[salver2] 27/1/2023 09:04

Bargain shares disappearing fast -!

[essentialinvestor] 24/1/2023 13:03

Dave, yes I did, but my last lot sold at 68.88, well under the 70 plus high point
and also sold the bulk in the mid 60's - so definitely no cigar on timing those.

[disc0dave45] 24/1/2023 12:56

Hi EICOA - hope you made a profit. Shares are going sideways and my concerns are reducing profit due to fx and their strategy for focussing on athleisure. Not too certain eggs in one basket is the way to go, but like yourself I'll wait and see what their prelims are like in March (no reason to think the shares will do much between now and then).This IMO looks decent. Good luck.

[salver2] 24/1/2023 11:59

I’m suspecting a lot of hotels need refurbishment after Covid and so a lot of companies are busy on contract work - I also suspect that there has also been a sea change in tastes - comfort seems to be back less white walls more carpets ( although I realise Headlam do the lot)with respect to Cfx and Sdg more fabrics and wallpaper

[essentialinvestor] 24/1/2023 11:45

Dave, on COA, my one concern is last year's 3 acquisitions
which arguably raises the risk profile ..did they buy well etc.
So I'm minded to wait for the next update and accept paying a higher price
if the statement looks good.



Salver, Headlam's recent update stronger than I expected.
They operate at the other end of the market!.
UK's largest flooring distributor.

[salver2] 24/1/2023 11:20

Interesting but these forecasts are just fantasy figures- they will beat this easily- previous forecast was 57.5 eps expect around 90 p ( for what my opinions worth)

[essentialinvestor] 24/1/2023 11:15

On the move, lovely.

[disc0dave45] 24/1/2023 11:13

Forecasts have been updated, now 76.2eps for the current year, falling though to 65p next FY.

[essentialinvestor] 23/1/2023 19:12

Yup merger, only one possibility.

[salver2] 23/1/2023 19:00

The only problem I suppose is that Sdg haven’t enough firepower to take Colefax out - but maybe take the form of some sort of merger perhaps

[essentialinvestor] 23/1/2023 18:47

Dave, I would expect a takeout here, but that is speculation my part.

Current BOD no longer spring chickens (with respect) - a larger business could likely strip out a significant wedge of annual costs.


For example, SDG has manufacturing capacity where CFX do not.

[disc0dave45] 23/1/2023 18:41

Hi EIAgree, exceptional H1 no denying that. Should definitely beat expectations for the year but by how much is the million dollar question. IMO H2 won't be like last year, if you look at their previous H2 to H1 weightings but guess you never know!. They did have a fair amount of tailwinds too in H1 (mainly the share buyback +8.8% in eps, and fx, I make circa +10%). Looking at CER growth it paints a different picture.....but whose to say what H2 impact will be and for some reason Mr Market hasn't reacted as though they will be blowing the lights out.Well done though.

[salver2] 23/1/2023 14:59

I thought like you they might do 7 to 7.5 m a little bit higher than you essential- so this is mad cheap even if the market slows -if a modest 9 pe say were to be applied on say 8.5 million pre tax this would be in the 11- 12 pound a share category-if it ever got a pe like Burberry it would be 30 quid a share!-well no doubt it’ll just hoover up some more cheap shares -the share count is down about 78 percent since 1998