Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

[george stobart] 23/4/2024 10:04

Are the news regarding the ponzi scheme and the undeclared relationship with the CEO's secretary legit?

If so, that practically means that NAV falls to 11.69p

[spectoacc] 23/4/2024 09:52

"Below replacement cost".

[cc2014] 22/4/2024 16:37

Excellent. I'll have another 8.5% rise tomorrow please Mr. Market.

[newbold120] 22/4/2024 08:02

I wonder how the newer NEDs of SONG would deal with this situation?

[nickrl] 19/4/2024 19:57

@CDV they never uploaded the previous presentation when the divi was cut which is a shame. Best we pester them as i would like to have listened to the analysts ones as well.

[cruelladeville] 19/4/2024 17:37

Does anyone have a link to a recording of today's investor presentation please? Nothing on the GRID website or YouTube. Thanks.

[cc2014] 19/4/2024 16:05

#811 That's stretching my imagination.

GRID is the largest in the UK by some margin and that includes everyone, not just the quoted funds.

[cruelladeville] 19/4/2024 15:42

I think there's a window of opportunity open for a predator. Both GRID and HEIT are too small to stay as independent businesses in my opinion.

[jane deer] 19/4/2024 14:36

Gresham House has been really poor at communicating. For years an excessive focus on NAV - too little useful data beyond that. Now they are beginning to give a bit more operating data (but still restricting that with claims that things can not be disclosed because they are commercially sensitive). I have not really followed HEIT that much - but I went to AGM yesterday (as I hold a handful of shares for monitoring purposes) and management were open and readily discussing operational issues (positive and negative). That was an eye-opener, as well as their RNS being more informative. On the call today, Gresham House I think realised they have got the level of disclosure badly wrong and, if I read the tea-leaves correctly, you can expect more disclosure when the FY23 numbers are released on 29 April.

Having said the above, I have bought GRID this morning. I see its market EV (proforms for completing the 1,072MW build out at c£375k/MW vs HEIT (preforma for its c395MW build out) on c£575k/MW. Both comfortably below replacement costs of £700-800k/MW. HEIT (despite its higher leverage) arguably demands a premium for the better disclosure and all the batteries being 2hours. But GRID's discount to replacement cost just seems too big.

[cruelladeville] 19/4/2024 14:26

Thanks. That's a great peg in the ground. Regarding affordability of future dividends.

[willywonka12] 19/4/2024 14:10

Was very tempted to take a big loss but it started to rise. I will wait and see .hopefully all.bad news is out .now

[nickrl] 19/4/2024 14:02

Watched the second Ben Guest show this morning which didn't tell us much more than the RNS but did answer three of my questions answered. I was trying to understand what revenue is needed to restore divi and he mentioned that for 7p need to be at 70k/MWh/mth i believe. I did like the way he thought that it was more an analysts question so clearly they don't realise how genned up private investors are. Anyhow with declared intention of not paying divi in 24 this is just a watching game for now.

[george stobart] 19/4/2024 13:44

Thank you jpatara319 - The Rt Hon Sir Keir Starmer approves your comment so must all vote for him to get the job done

[jpatara3] 19/4/2024 13:24

I still believe battery storage will play an even greater part of our energy infrastructure, after all we are not going to reduce our energy consumption. Question is whether management is competent to navigate through rough times. Other factors at play is the U.K. is an unloved UK market, in four months £2.5 billion pulled from investment trusts, while at the same time £6.7 billion was poured into US markets. I also hold REITS, both U.K. and US. Over the last year I have doubled my money on US REITS yet I am still 20% down on UK REITS.

[marktime1231] 19/4/2024 12:07

Backed out with a bloody nose, no point being here if they are not paying out any income for another year. Lost more money more quickly but only once and that was in a casino.

If NAV was genuinely in the 120's an infrastructure fund or sovereign wealth or activist ought to be swooping, but it isn't so they aren't. Good luck to everyone finding a positive way to look at this predicament.

Right, down but not out, move on. Where to try and repair the damage I wonder.

[george stobart] 19/4/2024 10:14

The Rt Hon Sir Keir Starmer loves this country more than anything in his life and will bring massive investments in Green Infrastructure to revolutionise the UK renewable and energy storage space.

The Rt Hon Sir Keir Starmer will also open the Boarder to our friends and partners over in the EU to come and stay here in the UK and bring their incomes here which will be massive for our economy and stock market.

[williamcooper104] 19/4/2024 09:58

Incoming Labour government might change things

[spectoacc] 19/4/2024 09:02

Surely more a case of on 1st Feb, removing the divi but using that amount for buybacks.

Subsequent to that, with a further month of cr*ppy pricing in Feb, the buyback is done and now it's on to capital preservation.


"....The commencement of a Share Buyback Programme. The Company will review the Share Buyback Programme on an ongoing basis in the context of its capital allocation decisions, as well as the discount to NAV at which the shares are trading at any given time." [2nd Feb]


Edit - could do with some decent director buying, averaging down their small buys from c.50p.

[willywonka12] 19/4/2024 09:02

I have loss confidence in the management. And so as everyone else .They better come up good news today .

[jpatara3] 19/4/2024 08:50

Same occurred to me - buybacks v preserving cash!! Maybe they will explain it today in the 11am call

[jimbox1] 19/4/2024 08:44

If the priority is deleveraging and preserving cash for current constructions, why was the company continuing to buy back shares until yesterday? Did this only become a priority last night?

[cc2014] 19/4/2024 08:43

I think the situation is now as follows for the UK:

GRID, HEIT and GSF complete all projects which are under construction meaning a bunch of new batteries come on line between now and October

And that will be it. These funds are not ever going to raise any more capital and any expansion of batteries in the UK is going to be down to others. There's plenty in the pipeline for the "others" just as there is for GRID/HEIT and GSF but I doubt even a fraction of it will get built now. The cost/benefit analysis has changed.

So, if the ESO want batteries on the GRID and a progression to net zero the price incentives are going to have to change. I suspect that won't happen, low volumes of new batteries will come online after October and income will start whipsawing back the other way about a year later.

Anyway, my view is of course that of someone now sitting in a losing trade and writing a bull case for the future. My average is 43.4p so not a million miles away from breakeven but I suspect I'm stuck here for a while unless I take a loss.

[spectoacc] 19/4/2024 06:43

I won't be a holder of HEIT at any price, but I'm comfortable in GRID & GSF. RNS read well to me.

They've recognised the market isn't out of the woods yet, and are prioritising cash/paying down debt. Yes, I like GSF's huge yield, but there's no way they weren't heavily effected by the Jan/Feb UK market (at least a third, arguably 40%, of GSF). But still too cheap to ignore.

GSF will be paying out some of their NAV, GRID will effectively be accruing it.

NAV's a moveable feast, but consider HEIT/GRID are more or less in the same market, and compare those RNS's.