Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[dunns_river_falls] 23/4/2024 19:55

Looking more positive in Canada today

[king suarez] 23/4/2024 09:07

Indeed. I added more at the start of the new ISA season. Just pointing out that in the (very) short-term, these kind of shares get buffeted about by things like a 1-2% drop in oil price etc.

[mount teide] 22/4/2024 22:37

$87 Brent is more than $12/bbl higher than the average price when the O&G industry reported an all-time record free cash flow in Q4/2021 - at more than two times the previous record set when Brent averaged over $140/bbl adjusted for inflation during a four year period between 2011 and 2014.

Even at a production level of 3,000 boepd, at $75 Brent, AXL could probably generate sufficient cash flow to finance the remainder of the 2024 production development and exploration drilling programme, without any production contribution from the wells yet to be drilled.

From a fundamental perspective, with the oil price up circa 20% YTD, a net oil market deficit forecast for the remainder of the year, and the imminent commencement of the high impact horizontal drilling programme at Carrizales Norte.........on the balance of probabilities, the improved risk/reward generated by this 15% pullback from the recent new high, is likely to be of more interest/attraction to investors with a 18-24 month investment outlook than traders.

AIMHO/DYOR

[king suarez] 22/4/2024 15:42

We're in a brief no news period, with a falling oil price after a disappointing production update. Doesn't need a conspiracy story to figure why the share price is not yet rising?

[rockyride] 22/4/2024 15:28

Wonder if we are being held around these prices while Canocol do whatever they're doing. It feels similar to last year when we were held at 18p while the warrant saga was in full swing.

[ashkv] 22/4/2024 14:35

Thank you for the responses.

[here and there] 22/4/2024 14:25

quarterlies/results due soon. around month end

[eaglehaslanded] 22/4/2024 13:38

Ashkv May from the week around 8 th May?

[ashkv] 22/4/2024 13:30

Any idea as to when we should next get an update from AXL? Thx

[mount teide] 20/4/2024 11:22

Chart many have been waiting for Bloomberg to publish for years - Oil Price Adjusted for inflation from 1970 - 2024.

Confirming that the oil price today in real terms would have to nearly double to reach the level it averaged for 4 years between 2011 and 2014, and would have to go up by 122% to reach its all time inflation adjusted high price in 2008.

[mount teide] 19/4/2024 11:03

ConocoPhillips hold 80% of the VMM-2 and VMM-3 unconventional oil and gas blocks in the Middle Magdalena Valley, while Arrow shareholder Conacol hold the remaining 20% of this huge potential resource. The key target is the La Luna geological formation which is thought to hold up to two billion barrels of conventional oil reserves.

Industry insiders and analysts compare the La Luna formation to the prolific US Eagle Ford shale, where the geological body is estimated to hold up to 10 billion bbls of oil. If true and correctly exploited, it would significantly boost Colombia’s proven oil reserves, and alleviate the economic hazards posed by the country's dwindling oil reserves, short production life, and deteriorating oil output.

A left wing eco fanatic President, shifting regulations, an unclear legal environment, and widespread community nervousness of fracking have combined to make unconventional oil operations in Colombia an unappealing and hazardous investment, despite the long US history of oil and gas extraction by fracking demonstrating that environmental and health risks can be suitably managed.

While the resumption and expansion of unconventional oil exploration and fracking pilots in Colombia could resolve the country’s energy security and developing economic woes, it will prove impossible under the renewable energy mindset and policies of the current President and Government.

The best hope ConocoPhillips and Conacol has of changing Colombia's Policy on unconventional oil and gas exploration activities, including appraisal drilling targeting the La Luna formation, is a change of President to someone with a more right leaning political persuasion and energy security at a reasonable price mindset, and that is unlikely to occur before the next Presidential election in summer 2026.

AIMHO/DYOR

Source: mostly from the research of Matthew Smith - an investment management professional based in Latin America.

[eaglehaslanded] 18/4/2024 21:52

PldazzleI think that most of the work is already done, permit applications and such. So it may not be affected so much I think.Of course if Canacol has no board member it might be some less expertise.

[pldazzle] 18/4/2024 21:20

@EHL, in post #7535 you reported this from Joe:

"We met with the new ANH President when we were in Bogota last month. This is the 3rd ANH President in the last two years.

He is very supportive and said he would help us with the process. The ANH wants the process to move forward because the extension will create jobs for the community in the Oso Pardo area.

The hold up continues to be ConocoPhillips. So far they have been unable/unwilling to write a letter stating that our shallow oil project will not interfere with their deep La Luna rights. ConocoPhillips has told us that they are waiting for the anti fracking legislation to be passed by congress so they can best understand their options in regards to their La Luna mineral rights.

Our Director, who is a member of the Canacol executive team, seems to be making progress in his discussions with ConocoPhillips. Canacol is a partner with ConocoPhillips in the VMM2 block La Luna project.

We are still expecting a positive conclusion to the process but can not confidently put a time line on receiving the extension approval.

If news does come out of recent discussions we will let investors know.

Thanks
Joe"

How will the Oso Pardo application be affected if Canacol sell their stake (they will presumably no longer have a representative on the AXL board, but even if they do, they won't on the face of it have the same incentive to support AXL in its efforts to extend the OP licence)?

[rockyride] 18/4/2024 15:13

Q - There is a lot of speculation re what Canacol are doing with their holding. Are you working with them to transfer them to somebody else and is this being done off market?A - Canacol is going through a process. We hope to hear from them soon.Also Updates on the CNB pad and spud of CNB H1 will be given soon along with a water disposal update and production update.

[here and there] 18/4/2024 06:52

Thanks Henley. Read the article now. According to the article

The headline says it has sold 10 million (dated March 3rd)

but the article states

'announced today that it intends to sell ten million shares of the oil company Arrow Exploration Corp.'

So something of a contradicition. I will enquire. Whatever happens Canacol will sell their stake in blocks off market to a new II investor.

[nicosevos] 17/4/2024 08:41

C&P X

Highheat@2020Upstream

18h
Canacol Energy (big seller of Arrow Exploration) is down 79.45% in last 5 years.


Robin Mayes@Robin25461631

18h
Block seller to be precise…nothing on market

[henley2] 17/4/2024 08:33

Well if you had attended the most recent Proactive presentation at the Chesterfield Hotel in London and then read the most recent RNS from the company you might feel differently! There is an article on the Telegram group stating that Canacol sold 10 million shares.

[here and there] 17/4/2024 08:20

What article is that Henley? I don't believe they have sold a single share

[buffythebuffoon] 17/4/2024 08:01

Is it just me or has the zeitgeist on this board changed from MA being a serial winner and on target to succeed with a ninth company to being a lying manipulator who can’t be trusted?

Or perhaps some came on board looking for a quick buck and are angry because they will have to wait for more than a day to make money and feel better venting their spleen.

Buffy

[henley2] 17/4/2024 07:52

A recent article highlighted that they had sold 10 million shares in early March and currently hold about 50 million shares.

[nicosevos] 17/4/2024 07:39

How many shares OF AXL does Canacol Energy hold?
tia

[henley2] 16/4/2024 23:06

The CEO says a lot of things….that then never happen, e.g. recompletion of Oso Pardo wells was due to take place in Q124!

[the_gold_mine] 16/4/2024 21:34

Hopefully the horizontal rig is setting up onsite as we speak with spud on the first horizontal CNB-H1 imminent.

[taurusthebear] 15/4/2024 12:14

Probably because of the largely ineffectual response of Iran (who probably anticipated such an outcome). But they may have stirred up a hornet's nest now...