Future Share Discussion Threads

[smokeyjohnson] 19/4/2024 13:44

Will the gap from the 4th April be closed here? Shorts seem to have increased slightly. Perhaps taking advantage of the middle east worries.

[rimau1] 04/4/2024 09:10

I also firmly believe that GoCompare is worth the entire marketcap. Thats all from me.

[rimau1] 04/4/2024 08:38

I very prudently have revenue FY revenue growth of 1percent which is low single digits organic H2. Net profit i assume flat on 2023 so around 140p eps trading under 5x - they should outperform this. The free cash flow is crazy and debt should be down to under 1x so expect acquisitions in H2 once our new CEO is happy advertising has bottomed

[alotto] 04/4/2024 08:22

what is the "expectations for FY 2024" in terms of revenue and net profit then?

[northwards] 04/4/2024 08:16

Feels that way.

[rimau1] 04/4/2024 08:12

Yes, returning to net growth in H2 as forecast. This is very good news, the price action here recently clearly showed the market did not believe that futr would return to growth in 2024. The golden nugget in todays update is the recovery in US direct advertising squirrelled away towards the end. This update could not have been much better IMO. Ridiculous valuation priced for failure.

[alotto] 04/4/2024 08:10

Revenue improvement, ok, what about the bottom line?
Trading update is confusing. The market opened well though

[valhamos] 04/4/2024 08:06

"The expected revenue improvement to the Q4 2023 exit rate has continued, resulting in a return to organic revenue growth in Q2 for the Group."

​

[northwards] 04/4/2024 08:05

Looks like the MMs are trying to figure out what the update means ...

[alotto] 04/4/2024 08:00

Does this mean that there is no net growth?

"The return to growth has been driven by a strong performance in Go.Compare,

alongside good growth in B2B, and a resilient performance in Magazines. This

has been offset by a more challenging performance in affiliate products and

digital advertising as macroeconomic pressures and low visibility continue to

impact the wider sector."

[northwards] 04/4/2024 07:18

So, confirmation that FY 24 expectations will be met. Current PE of c 4.

[harry_david] 23/3/2024 07:35

This little bounce presages a lift to £10, there are so many recovery signals at last. Most important is retail of course, we need ad revenue to return in force.

[alotto] 13/3/2024 20:07

What has dented sentiment after the bounce a few weeks ago?

[rimau1] 09/3/2024 10:53

Interesting discussions, good luck all

[daz] 09/3/2024 09:43

I share the view that the company is too far spread and needs to slim down through disposals but also think the shares are too cheap on a forward P/E of 5 and as mentioned above the advertising cycle will turn at some point and I think probably will be triggered by a fall in interest rates. Markets though look ahead, so I would expect a re-rating ahead of that.
What prompted me to buy yesterday was that the shares reached previous support at 600p and with the RSI so low, look ripe for a bounce from this point

[alotto] 09/3/2024 07:46

My approach with speculative stocks is different. I take a small position and I add on good news, even though the returns are not as good, but I mitigare the risk.
When s stock is genuinely undervalued, with no adverse market conditions and no negative trading updates, I average down. I have a very small position at the moment of £2.5k.

[rimau1] 09/3/2024 07:18

Indeed. However i have found that good research to form a solid buy case at a specific price and drip feeding/averaging down mitigate most of the speculative risk. The uncertainty risk is how we chase alpha returns and hopefully outperform markets. My maiden position was at 5.98 and i have regular limit order set all the way down. Consumer cyclicals need to survive 2024 and 2025 will be good and since we can't time the market this is the year to start looking at such depressed valuations. All IMO of course and this is a higher risk stock

[alotto] 08/3/2024 22:21

Too much uncertainty around this stock, very speculative.

[ggrantsu] 08/3/2024 21:19

After a lot of internal deliberation...I'm of the view that this valuation is now ludicrous. There are many issues with the company...risks around technological disruption risk (not saying it is absolute - but there are clearly risks), the people involved (Jon seems good but the wider board is useless and there is not really anyone properly incentivized in the same regard as shareholders), macro environment (particularly in gaming and tech) is weak.

However...GoCo, as pointed out, is now surely worth at the very minimum 70-80% of the entire market cap...based on the fact that a 10x EBITDA multiple in line with Moneysupermarket doesn't factor in any takeout premium (of course, as we all know, all the UK takeovers we are seeing right now are being done at hefty premiums). EBITDA for GoCo in FY23 was 54.2mm pre any corporate overheads (which one has to assume for - I try to be vey conservative with a figure of 10mm). Unless the rest of the business really is going extinct, there is an opportunity here clearly.

Not sure it will be a smooth road, but one would think this is clearly a candidate for being taken out (a multiple of even just 6x EBITDA would see shareholders handsomely paid) or some kind of major corporate transaction like the sale / spin out of GoCo.

Alongside GoCo, there are some good media brands in fashion/homes/womens/lifestyle. the gaming/tech stuff in my opinion is very weak and unfortunately prime for disruption - their websites are not very functional and just filled with digital ads. my experience using ChatGPT vs Toms Guide really was not particularly encouraging. But either way, there is surely now a relatively strong margin of safety on offer here, and there is a jocky bet on Jon Steinberg to be wagered.

Good luck all - happy to send across my analysis to anyone who messages me on the GoCo valuation. Quite striking visually!!

[rimau1] 08/3/2024 16:48

I have started buying, my assumption being that the sum-of-the-parts conglomerate discount is way too wide, GoCompare has to be worth the entire 700m marketcap. US private Equity could be interested. I will continue averaging down, 2025 recovery deep value play IMO.

[listillo] 29/2/2024 16:14

Why do you say the sites are awful? I disagree, they seem good, but would like to hear why

[takeiteasy] 29/2/2024 07:16

I guess if the market sees your concerns over the fundamental product quality, things will not change until a new product road map is prepared that is more than investing in the comparison web site.

So simply watching this get cheaper and cheaper may not trigger this moving to an entry point. This will take time so may have to wait many months until something tangible to base a decision on. The hedge funds may then have plenty of time to drive this a lot lower.

dyor and no advice etc

[ggrantsu] 09/2/2024 09:43

there is a lot of moving parts at this company atm...the AGM was an awkward experience with mgmt looking very very dismal and not engaging at all with each other.

i think over long run it will recover under steinberg, but not burying my head in the sand. it is a business facing not just cyclical headwinds, but potentially very severe structural ones. the hedge funds, of which there are now a good few, shorting this will have done their homework and unfortunately now I possibly think that they may have found something the rest of us don't know about. if i were to guess...its the fact they will be able to pay 250k or whatever for granular website traffic analysis...and potentially this has shown them weakening audience trends/time spent on websites etc...i have to say, post buying the share was when i really went through the websites and I was quite shocked at their poor quality e.g. Toms Guide or Tech Radar...they are truly awful.

we have to hope steinberg is the man to turn things around.

[takeiteasy] 08/2/2024 13:11

Back above 7 (for how long?)

Message to the hedge fund shorters the gap from 7 down to 5 has been cleared down so comprehensively a while back there is no mileage in my view of constantly doing all these false drops under 7, surely after 5-10 attempts the bot machine can work this out :)