Savannah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 18/4/2024 15:18

Work to repair Sudan oil pipeline progressing well - South Sudan Finance Minister Chuang.


South Sudan eyes Dar Blend export restart in 6-8 weeks - Argus / 17th April 2024

'South Sudan aims to restart exports of its heavy sweet Dar Blend crude grade within six-eight weeks as it works to repair a pipeline in war-torn Sudan, finance minister Awow Daniel Chuang told Argus.

Problems along the Petrador pipeline since February have prevented around 100,000 b/d of South Sudan's Dar Blend from reaching Sudan's Bashayer terminal on the Red Sea for export.

This has seen South Sudan's crude production almost halve to around 80,000 b/d because of a lack of alternative outlets for the grade. But production of the country's medium sweet Nile Blend grade continues as it is transported to Bashayer through the separate Greater Nile oil pipeline.

Landlocked South Sudan is entirely reliant on Sudan to export its crude and depends on oil sales for more than 90pc of government revenues.

Chuang, a former oil minister, said work to repair the pipeline was progressing well despite logistical challenges, and that unless something unforeseen happened, flows "should resume" within six-eight weeks.

The pipeline has suffered from gelling issues — solidifying crude — leaks and pressure drops for months. One key issue has been a lack of diesel, which is typically used to heat the crude or dilute it to help it flow.

Repairs have been complicated by the civil war in Sudan, pitting the army against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The conflict passed the one-year mark on 15 April, with no end in sight.

While production and exports in both Sudan and South Sudan held up surprisingly well at the start of the conflict, problems have begun to pile up over the past few months. South Sudan is sending diesel to Sudan because of the closure of the 100,000 b/d Khartoum refinery, which has come under repeated fire.

Sudan typically produces around 50,000 b/d of mostly Nile Blend crude, but this is thought to have been impacted by the civil war. Argus assessed Sudan's crude output at 20,000 b/d in March.

South Sudan's crude production was trending at around 150,000 b/d before the pipeline outage. Argus assessed South Sudan's crude output at 80,000 b/d in March.

Crude exports from Sudan's Bashayer port averaged 130,000 b/d in 2023 and stood at 168,000 b/d in January, according to Kpler. But exports have only averaged about 65,000 b/d since February.

South Sudan's crude production stood at around 300,000 b/d in the first few months following its independence from Sudan in 2011. It has a short-term target to grow output to 230,000 b/d and 450,000 b/d in the longer term — something the country's leaders acknowledge will require political stability and a surge in foreign investment.'

[gooseman1979] 17/4/2024 14:49

Niger uses Turkish trader BGN to pressure CNPC over state-owned oil sale

The junta has managed to obtain a cash injection of $400m in pre-financing from China National Petroleum Corp by playing oil traders off against each other.

Niger's Prime Minister Ali Lamine Zeine received a cheque on 12 April for $400m in pre-financing from China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) in exchange for which the Chinese major will sell the Nigerien state's 25.4% share of the around 90,000 barrels a day of crude oil exported via pipeline from Agadem to the Beninese port of Sèmè.

According to our sources, Zeine was however still discussing the sale of the same Agadem barrels in early April with managers from Turkish trader BGN International, headed by Ruya Bayegan. The Nigerien government had suggested to BGN that it was best placed to market the oil, and new talks between the prime minister's office and BGN had been due to take place this week ahead of a possible final agreement. BGN was in competition with Emirati trader BB Energy.

No guarantee of renewed contract
However, CNPC, which operates Agadem, did everything it could to keep control of the sale of the state's share of the oil by agreeing to have its Niger director, Zhou Zuokun, sign the 12 April agreement. The junta has been in power since July 2023 and wants to limit its dependence on the oil behemoth, making a point of reaffirming that the 12-month agreement may not be renewed if other traders offer better terms.

CNPC has controlled Niger's oil sector since its arrival in 2008, when it developed the Agadem fields, which came on stream in 2011. It set up the Société de raffinage de Zinder (Soraz), before starting to work on the crude oil export pipeline to Benin in 2019. Oil began flowing through the pipeline in March, and the first cargo is expected to be offloaded in May.

[mount teide] 16/4/2024 12:12

Interesting to have confirmation from Savannah's website that the Cameroon Export Transportation System includes both the export pipeline from Chad together with ownership of the offloading FSO(Kome Kribi 1) and related port infrastructure at Kribi in the Gulf of Guinea. This should provide SAVE with a very strong position to secure payment of any financial compensation awarded by the ICC Tribunal, should(as is likely IMO) they find in SAVE's favour with respect to the Chad Government's illegal Nationalisation of SAVE's Doba assets bought from Exxon.

'Cameroon Export Transportation System - comprises the Cameroon export pipeline, the Kome Kribi 1 floating storage and offloading unit (“FSO”) and related infrastructure. The Cameroon ETS, combined with the export pipeline in Chad, is the only international export route for oil production in Chad, which is used by the Doba Consortium and other third-party shippers including CNPC, Perenco and OPIC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of CPC Corporation and Taiwan.

The Cameroon pipeline has a diameter of 30” and a total length of 903 km with a nameplate capacity of 250,000 bopd which can transport relatively heavy crude. It includes two pumping stations, a small pressure reduction station, as well as three maintenance areas and is equipped with a leak detection system. The pumping stations are located at 215 km and 880 km along the pipeline.'

Construction of the pipeline, which is buried below the ground, started in 2000 and was completed in 2003, a year ahead of schedule. The total cost of the pipeline project was US$2.2 billion and several US and European Export/Import Credit agencies and the World Bank supported the construction and implementation of this major infrastructure project.

The Kome Kribi 1 is the offshore moored FSO vessel and is part of the ETS infrastructure. The FSO is a converted crude tanker with a nameplate storage capacity of 2.5 MMbbl and is connected to a single-point mooring system. The Kome Kribi 1 FSO is able to accommodate tandem-berthed export tankers up to 320,000 tonnes deadweight.




AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 16/4/2024 11:41

Header updated with changes to assets held, links to latest presentations and shareholders with a notifiable interest.

Shareholders with a notifiable interest as at 31/1/2024:
10.60% - Ingalls & Snyder LLC
8.88% - TT International Investment Management
7.33% - Capital Research & Management
7.00% - Premier Miton Investors
6.14% - JO Hambro Capital Management
5.85% - Phoenix Life
5.26% - Cavendish Fiduciary Limited 6
4.91% - Aberdeen
3.60% - RWC Asset Advisors

4.70% - Savannah Board - of which AK holds 48.55m (3.70%)

64.27% - Held by notifiable interests and Directors.

[1madmarky] 13/4/2024 21:42

It is anticipated that, within 12 months following completion of the SIPEC Acquisition, Stubb Creek gross production should increase by approximately 2.7 Kbopd to approximately 4.7 Kbopd through implementation of a de-bottlenecking programme.
So if the oil price does get to $100, stubb creek could become quite significant.

[gisjob2] 13/4/2024 20:00

Nigeria is mainly gas, Niger has still not been developed, Chad went t@t's up and South Sudan hasn't been signed off by the Government and has issues with the supply pipeline. Happy Days.

[1madmarky] 13/4/2024 18:48

Oil looking likely to rise further.
Just need to get the damn stuff to the market.

[mount teide] 11/4/2024 14:14

Yes, similar to early Jan - some large trades totalling close to 10.0 million changed hands at mostly 28p or more.

Probably one institution selling to another in an off book transaction.

[1madmarky] 11/4/2024 12:22

Yeah, it's screwed up the suspension price being displayed on the other site. Up a couple of pennies... yippee 😁😁😁

[upwego] 10/4/2024 21:44

Anyone notice them trades go through yesterday?

[interzone] 09/4/2024 08:53

Blimey ash, don't let yourself get so worked up, you'll do yourself a mischief. Nothing you can do about it so suggest you forget about it till it comes back and enjoy the summer. If you think it's a scam then you might feel better if you write to the FCA and explain why. That might ease some of your frustrations.

Meanwhile, some top class racing at Aintree this week if you want a distraction :-)

[ashkv] 08/4/2024 16:46

AK is the worst CEO - enriches himself and penuries share holders.

SAVE appears to be a scam - permanently suspended.

AK / SAVE need to be investigated by FCA / Authorities - SAVE appears to be a scam.

What about the Accugas/Nigerian refinance!!!

Absolute shambles - Friday evening RNS

Third rate corporate governance - and absolute basket case / self serving / self dealing incompetent CEO!!!

Hopefully SAVE doesn't go belly up with our money!!!

[andrewsr] 08/4/2024 12:51

Disappointing as the latest RNS was, it still comes down to government approval, which could presumably still come in the next month or so. The wait for the rest (audited accounts) would be just due process, rather than ministerial whim, and so, much more bearable than the wait for a signature.

[rockyride] 07/4/2024 20:25

I don't know but SH told me that they met key personnel and that they were happy that SAVE people had all the right relationships in place and that they were happy that things were progressing in the right direction. However, getting a final signature remains very much a binary situation!

[e43] 07/4/2024 19:28

RR,who did Strand Hanson meet in SS?

[rockyride] 07/4/2024 12:14

Strand Hanson have recently been to SS more than once, liked what they saw and reported back to AIM accordingly. It has been their activity which has had large inputs to get the extensions agreed by AIM.

[fft] 07/4/2024 12:08

RR, I want a chance to sell before SAVE enter another RTO !

[fft] 07/4/2024 12:06

I am concerned that AK is now on a 'mission' and doesn't want to back down. Chad isn't going to happen and any settlement will be years away after appeals etc. Niger ? Who knows. SS ??The lack of any indication of meetings with SS or any indication of anything concerns me. Most companies/individuals at least put up some pictures when suggesting that something is going to happen. Even SRT :-)AK wouldn't be the first person to effectively bully the rest of the board into going along with bad ideas, or making them unwilling to oppose it. The takeover board rely on info from the company and the brokers. AFAIK, they do not go off and actually verify anything.The RNS last Friday was, to me, someone having a laugh at shareholders after raising their hopes of real info only a week earlier.If he doesn't want to give out info about the projects going on, he should take the company private.

[rockyride] 07/4/2024 12:00

I see the 2 RNSs as contradictory as AIM have only agreed an extension until 17th May but the 2 sets of accounts and AD would surely come after that. In which case a further extension from AIM will need to be sought.I see the main message in the latest RNS to be directed to the SS Government. Post this RNS how could the SS Government possibly run a credible oil conference at the end of June if they had not signed off on this by then?Noted that we cannot be certain but it feels as though all other parties (Petronas, CNPC and whoever else may be involved) apart from the SS Government seen to be happy with the deal structure. Over to you Mr Kiir - get your pen out matey.If there is another large deal being worked up, we know there are many ways to deem whether RTO or not. One of the ways is by Market Cap and with the current 1.312bn shares in issue, our relist price could well be very relevant:-Fx 1.2615p = $248m25p = $413m47p (first hurdle price for staff options) = $777m68p (second hurdle price for staff options) = $1.124bnSo even if we came back at 68p another M&A deal >$1.124bn (highly likely as big dels come with as much hassle as small ones) we could once again come back in another back to back RTO.Finally, it seems at though production from SS is still at zero so our headline figure will not be currently be reducing. That said, I'd hope that with the Sudan war and pipeline risks / disruption that we have negotiated a lower headline price from the original $1.25bn. And then with economic interest hopefully from 1/1/22, I'd hope that we could be about break even by deal closure with no debt or equity listing needed.

[mount teide] 07/4/2024 11:48

Post 2795 - Apologies - posted on the wrong thread.

[captain james t kirk] 07/4/2024 10:28

Zengas

On reading the final part of your post 2794 - "As it stands from the latest update and AIM extension to 17th May" onwards - my interpretation of the latest rns is different.
My take is that the date has now been extended to the publication of our FY23 accounts and the FY23 financial statements of PCNL, which will be included in the Admission Document. It is only after the publication of said document, or cancellation of the deal, that we can re list.
To my mind the 17th May date is now redundant, not withstanding that the S. Sudan government approval may well come before or even on this date.
My conclusion is that something has progressed between the dates of the latest 2 rns's
to facilitate this flexibility on the part of the regulators.
I believe that this is an extremely positive development, which has not been fully appreciated, judging by some of the comments both here and in the other place.
The only other interpretation would be that SAVE would have to re list on 17th May if government approval wasn't granted by that date. The latest rns gives no indication that this is the case and given the present travails of the LSE, it wouldn't be a very good look if they did instruct SAVE to relist regardless.

[mount teide] 06/4/2024 16:32

Azule Acquisition - some thoughts:

554 days and counting of accrued revenue at an average $85/bbl Brent price from 1 Oct 2022, the effective economic date of the Azule deal - should have generated circa $118m of gross revenue to date to Afentra (Circa $35m of free cash flow).

Azule Deal - Total consideration of up to $84.5m, split $48.5m upfront and up to $36m in contingent payments:

* Up to $21m in contingent payments payable on a sliding scale above Brent price of $75/bbl with an annual cap of $7m over the years 2023, 2024 & 2025; and

* Up to $15m in contingent consideration linked to the successful future development of the Caco-Gazela and Punja discoveries (split $7.5m equally), payable 1 year after first oil subject to a Brent price of $75/bbl and production hurdles

So, likely payment due to date on completion: $48.5m - $35m + $7m = $20.5m

"We see opportunities for ESPs [electric submersible pumps], infill drilling, water injections really improving. Just all the classic things you'd be doing with an old mature field to offset decline and boost production. We think this asset with the fullness of time, between 3/05 and 3/05A has got the potential to go up to even as high as 30,000 b/d." McDade August 2023

30,000 b/d is circa 80% ABOVE the reported level of production when the deal for the assets was first announced.

Food for thought - Block 3/05 has a STOIIP of 3.15 billion bbls, with a 43% recovery factor as of 30 June 2023. The new fiscal terms significantly incentivises a higher recovery factor from the block - at a 30% working interest, a 10% increase in recovery would equate to an additional circa 93m bbls net to AET.

AIMHO/DYOR