Ip Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 11/4/2024 19:05

October low was 44p. Ont was about 2.40 at the time.
It reached 40 in 2020, an historic low, so we're near as.
I think it will continue to fluctuate within a band up to 60p, before any take off.

[p1nkfish] 11/4/2024 16:27

Each to their own but prefer to find something that is already trending higher with a macro back-wind and management that know how to steer the ship. Makes life a little easier and less stressful. This will turn but no amount of my trying to predict it has succeeded so I've given up trying.

A catalyst needed that might be a sale of a holding etc.

[brucie5] 11/4/2024 12:21

Bought a few this morning, which I will probably trade until the new trend becomes clear. We can probably quite reasonably expect a rise to say, 53p level just on white noise?

[brucie5] 09/4/2024 15:37

Oakbloke is a fan. This from his recent musings. He doesn't always get it right, but he does put in the research. I think personally the question about FL is whether/to what extent it is actually accretive of value, without the kind of breakthrough that would see it producing commercial energy. I imagine far more likely that its IP would be sold off to help a larger entity get to that point.

IP Group
I recently spoke about the IPO FY23 results. A reader speculated that Nuclear Fusion is “commercially still way off in the distance - even 20 years is optimistic.” They may be right. But does that mean a holding like First Light Fusion cannot prosper while governments pay to make it happen? Like the US did this week. And especially if you can demonstrate progress. This week IP Group’s First Light Fusion announced a world-record pressure achievement of 1.85 Terrapascals (vs a previous 1.5 TerraPascal) using a US “Z machine” which has a 80 Terrawatt peak power - using the amplification technology of First Light.

First Light is pursuing a form of inertial confinement fusion called projectile fusion, which creates the extreme temperatures and pressures required to achieve ‘fusion’ by compressing a target containing fusion fuel using a projectile travelling at a tremendous speed. This differs from approaches pursued by other mainstream fusion companies in that it doesn’t involve using complex, energy-intensive, expensive lasers, or magnets. Without the need for hugely complex and expensive lasers to facilitate the fusion reaction, this is a simpler, cheaper, more energy-efficient approach to achieving fusion with lower physics risk. The amplifier massively increases the pressure delivered from the impact of the projectile, necessary to achieve fusion. First Light has had its first shot on the Z Machine and later this year gets two more shots and believes it can further increase pressure. More TerraPascal records to follow, reader!

I firmly believe this is a great opportunity - and people like Bill Gates thinks Fusion a great opportunity too. Where Gates open, others follow through.

[bamboo2] 09/4/2024 13:31

Discount on NAV could be removed if management accepted the current market valuation.

Any reason why they shouldn't do this?

Apart from their NAV based free shares that is...

[p1nkfish] 09/4/2024 13:14

Not convinced it would yet. Needs a catalyst or event. Either specific to IPO or holdings or some macro outside of IPO. Discount has been substantial for a while. Whats new about that?

[dennisbergkamp] 09/4/2024 12:48

Question is what sort of discount do we have on nav.

That’s what would get us moving back up.

D

[p1nkfish] 09/4/2024 12:44

Not for me that one.

[brucie5] 09/4/2024 11:45

Add CWR to that list - a former stable horse at IP, I believe. Results due shortly.

[p1nkfish] 09/4/2024 10:28

Keeping an eye on the ski-slope, yes.
Have an idea of what indicators to watch to signify a possible turn.

IPO and ONT are victims of the market, they just have to stick to their knitting until sentiment changes. Have learnt the hard way not to be a martyr to a good idea/company/product if the wider market doesn't care. A recipe for capital erosion and substantial opportunity cost. Sadly. IPO and ONT are both really neat.

[brucie5] 09/4/2024 10:13

Thanks, will watch.
You looking at ONT?

[p1nkfish] 09/4/2024 09:53

Brucie, there is much to be optimistic about on the deeptech and bio fronts but certainly doesn't mean it will move soon. The market doesn't care and has bigger fish to fry. First signs the market does care I will look to jump in but who knows when???
Keep eyes on the price vs volume and see what that indicates. Until then it's dead money when you can get a decent lower risk return elsewhere. This has illiquid holdings, risk and not a good cash distribution. Why rush in until there is a sign of change in market interest?

I held this too long last time, made money time before. Don't want to repeat the poor performance again.

[brucie5] 09/4/2024 09:25

Thanks pinkfish, good to see someone long term optimistic. It's easy to forget that this chart did go up several times - as well as down! Are you able to share the link please?

[p1nkfish] 08/4/2024 13:12

CEO interview out not partly touching on validation of valuations by 3rd parties. EDISON.

Make of it as you will.

One day it will recover. When it does it will probably have a long period of appreciation toward 150p or higher. No need to rush to buy as less risky once trend is confirmed as there can be many a false dawn. Prefer to miss the first few per centage points if it saves a few months or years trapped.

[p1nkfish] 05/4/2024 17:27

The buyback is to offer some liquidity else no one would exit without driving this into the ground. If there was decent liquidity I doubt there would be a buyback in process.

Weinstein is working on 2 main principles imho.
1) He's buying where there is a large discount,
2) He's buying where the underlying holdings are themselves undervalued too - some quality UK listed mid caps held in the funds.

IPO meets 1 and fails 2.
He has more sense than work on IPO as it's a trap.
It's illiquid, it's holdings are illiquid and, largely, valuations of holdings are not market proven. He's not stupid.

[brucie5] 05/4/2024 16:57

Yes, aware of the technical breakthrough at FLF, though I'm not yet convinced that this brings it much closer to being a 'business' so much as an important contribution to experimental advances in the science of NF. I expect this will be the eventual value of it an acquirer.
While I get your point about buybacks, it would be nice for shareholders to be rewarded to some degree in some way! How about some special dividends based on profits of any next sales? Normally, investors are agreeable to taking share price growth in lieu of income, but as we all know, that advantage hardly applies here!
One for believers only!
In the meantime ONT travels forever southerly to where I expect it to fetch up at £1 quite shortly.

[apple53] 05/4/2024 10:07

1) BBC article on First Light Fusion

2) 'Weighing in' on the div/buyback debate. I believe last year's div totalled c. £13m. As long as it really is true that very very few shareholders require a dividend (and let's be honest it wouldn't have been in many income funds), then I prefer to see this money spent as buybacks, instantly creating 6-7m of value (more if you believe the NAV). Clearly I would like to see buybacks of 5-10x this figure. This would really make a difference. Most boards have come to the conclusion that buybacks are relatively ineffective at narrowing discounts, and it is hard to find good evidence for it. The silver lining is more opportunity to create a lot of value by buying at high discount. However, I think PIN (pantheon) is a good example - a massive tender and consistent buybacks seems to be having an effect.

3) Does anyone know Boaz Weinstein? - surely IP Group fits his bill at Saba.

[brucie5] 23/3/2024 10:00

I think it's just a very slow burner;the underlying top 20 shares are progressively building out value, while absolutely nothing in it for the rest. And meanwhile, ONT is still to reach absolute nadir. One for the patient.

[p1nkfish] 19/3/2024 17:46

Makes no difference.
Until money flows this way it's dead in the water.
Catalyst(s) needed.

Hope I'm wrong but I see a very extended period of lack of money flow.
My previous thoughts/projections appear to be wrong with respect to IPO.

[brucie5] 18/3/2024 18:07

44p was last October low.
Oakbloke has put out a new note.

[halfpenny] 18/3/2024 17:48

Now Testing 40p level support as falls increase. Too Risky at these levels, How Low!

[bamboo2] 13/3/2024 14:38

ONT's LAT shares expire mid June 2024.

[houseofpain1] 13/3/2024 14:35

Istesso has strong potential to drive a share price recovery in the near term. Phase 2b data fairly imminent by the sound of it and likelihood is that it is positive which should drive a significant valuation uplift. Bear in mind that Hambro Perks were looking at IPO'ing this at a valuation of "several hundred million pounds" this time last year. It is currently held at £200m and represents 11.0p of NAV.

Nanopore. Share price lows are likely in now I reckon. CEO's golden share falls away at the end of this year so potential for some corporate activity after that.

Hysata obviously had a stellar year and there could be much, much more to come there.

Oxa and FeatureSpace both appear to be progressing well.

If some of this "good stuff" happens, then it will make a decent difference at the NAV level and should make a very significant difference at the share price level.

[bjfanc] 13/3/2024 11:09

The market is saying, I don't believe the current NAVs of the unquoted portfolio.