Octopus Renewables Infra... Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 11/4/2024 17:28

I think it's cheap, & I hold, but agree it's likely getting even cheaper first. No support left on the chart, other things around on similar or better metrics.

[gopher] 11/4/2024 17:16

No hurry to buy in here, the 6p dividend is the temptation but the Aquila takeover still to be navigated. No surprise that stock dips below 70p in face of modest selling most days since results at start of month.

[trcml] 02/4/2024 15:18

For those who are customers, it might be worth buying to use the yield to help pay the electricity bill.

[gopher] 28/3/2024 12:06

The Q and A session of Investors Meet seemed to be for industry professionals and I suspect the source of the Citywire article.

[pj84] 26/3/2024 21:29

Just to add to the comment in the Citywire article in post 244 pointing out "ORIT's 'exceptional earnings visibility" in the presentation it was mentioned that even if power prices slumped that wouldn't directly lead to a cut in the dividend as ORIT has entered into long fixed price contracts with end users one example being a 15 year contract to supply electricity to Microsoft at a fixed price for 15 years.

[pugugly] 26/3/2024 21:26

Personal marker at 72p. To research further.

[pj84] 26/3/2024 19:33

Just listened to the presentation and didn't hear anything that raised any concerns for ORIT specifically.

For those who aren't traders, buying now at these lows of more than a 30% discount to NAV whilst locking in a prospective dividend yield of over 8% (which is targeted to increase in line with inflation) with the possibility of falling interest rates improving sentiment in the sector and possibly reducing the discount, this could be a good time to buy if you are patient.

[pj84] 26/3/2024 13:27

"Liberum’s Alex O’Hanlon said the results were very much in line with the sector, which endured a perfect storm of rising discount rates, falling inflation and low power prices combined with low wind speeds, making for an ‘annus horribilis’.

On the bright side, O’Hanlon pointed to falling discount rates in 2024 if interest rates were cut that would lift the portfolio, while pointing out ORIT’s ‘exceptional’ earnings visibility. He gave a ‘buy’ recommendation with a target price of 115p. The shares stand at 72p at a 32% discount to NAV."

[gopher] 26/3/2024 00:38

Worth catching up with yesterdays presentation and QA on Investors meet to see ORIT response to some of the question raised here.For those of you who don't want to devote 45 minutes, ORIT came across as competent but sector is going through a difficult period and I think less savvy operators may get into trouble.

[yump] 25/3/2024 16:29

Re wind speeds: are there any climatologists out there ? Only climate change might mean more turbulence or more stuck calm weather systems - who knows!

[topvest] 25/3/2024 15:35

The Irish acquisition for 160m Euro. Looks like a good asset, but what was the capital allocation rationale versus a 7.5% RCF being used to finance? The average discount rate of 7.2% looks a tad low as well in today's results. Not hugely impressed, but priced in already, I guess. Power prices are still falling-off post year-end, so will keep watching until the summer.

[spectoacc] 25/3/2024 15:20

BISA a non-starter, but Labour's plans will certainly be interesting.

Noted this on wind this morning:


I rated ORIT management, but the whole AERI/AERS palava put me right off - should stick to their knitting. They may yet attempt a high bid but if it's for paper, good luck.

Agree insts are selling down the sector, but suspect as much due to us entering a 3rd year of retail withdrawal from the market. Had never previously been two consecutive calendar years before, even in the GFC.

Is creating bargains but bargains that are getting still cheaper. Chart on ORIT does not look pretty.

[gopher] 25/3/2024 15:17

I would say ORIT sits in the middle of the sector risk premium. The infrastructure sector is under the cosh as a whole with renewables in particular focus as power prices and wind speeds fall. Maybe it’s safer with the sector heavyweights but ORIT is a worth considering with some flexibility in its mandate both geographically and technologically.

One of the challenges for the Labour government is turbocharge green investment, the sector does offer reasonably secure cash flows and should be attractive to the pensions industry who appear to have sold down the UK very heavily in recent decades. British ISA is a sign that politicians are waking up to problem.

[spectoacc] 25/3/2024 11:29

The results haven't bounced it, so looking like going through support.

A lot of value out there IMO - but not sure why I'd choose ORIT over the many others.

[petewy] 25/3/2024 09:11

Optimistic resuts.

[pj84] 25/3/2024 08:57

From the above article:-

"REF claims that operators overcharged for constraint payments, the cash given to electricity generators to switch off wind farms and other assets when the national grid risks being overloaded.

On windy days, the output from Scotland’s turbines surges to an unmanageable level because there are too few national grid links to carry their power to England’s cities.

When this happens, the National Grid Electricity System Operator (NGESO) tells wind farms to “constrain” their output – meaning they must switch off, and therefore earn less money from the subsidy system that underpins renewable generation.

The farms are then allowed to claim compensation for this lost income, with the costs added to consumer bills. However, the complexity of the system has given rise to multiple opportunities for overclaiming."

Along with the lacklustre results it looks like this won't help sentiment until it is resolved. Best to just collect the dividends until sentiment improves.

[spectoacc] 24/3/2024 16:48

Agreed @ammons, seen no talk of nationalising - indeed, how could they? There's no money for new investments, let alone buying up (even on the cheap) what's there already.

Whether Labour are as favourable to private capital is another matter - but nationalising anything isn't on the table.

[ammons] 24/3/2024 14:16

Not a Labour fan at all but I dont recall seeing anything to indicate that Labour will nationalise companies already operating in the green energy space. Having rowed back significantly on thier own green energy investment proposals I would have thought that they need to encourage the private sector to invest heavily in it?

[yump] 24/3/2024 13:33

Labour will have some fun “working with private business to improve blah blah”, while talking about nationalising stuff in the renewables space, while talking about renewables being an integral part of their future plans, while doing more windfall taxes etc etc.

All election talk though. From both parties.

[hope1815] 24/3/2024 12:56

I used to be in Renewables but sold Blue Solar etc last year after reading Labour's view on this sector and Nationalizing it. Looking at it now people wonder why it is still falling General Elections Labour win.

[gemlotte55] 23/3/2024 11:56

Results Monday, lets hope for a positive uplift

[spectoacc] 22/3/2024 15:03

Think the daft AERI/AERS tilt has knocked them - I liked ORIT before that, but empire-building doesn't appeal. Sold up most of mine after the first news of it, but irritatingly kept 50k bought at 90p, which now seems a very long way off.

Difficult to say they're dirt cheap yet, looking at that comparison with GSEO.

Still - you'd think they wouldn't have kept going down in this market.

[speedsgh] 22/3/2024 13:38

New all time lows. It's certainly unloved at present along with most of its peers.

ORIT FY24 target div 6.02p gives 8.4% yield at current 71.9p offer. 32% discount to unaudited Dec 23 NAV of 107.02p. Final results to be released on Monday.

GSEO FY24 target div 5.68p gives 8.5% yield at current 67.0p offer. 42.5% discount to unaudited Dec 23 NAV of 116.46p. Final results also due this month.

[gemlotte55] 22/3/2024 10:16

Thos doesn't seem to be participating in rally