Rtw Biotech Opportunities Share Discussion Threads

[rambutan2] 07/4/2024 19:39

Latest addition to the unquoted port via a "significantly oversubscribed" $160m C round:

[makinbuks] 28/3/2024 11:13

Yes I agree Post balance sheet events focused only on completed transactions and some general market commentary. We'll get another factsheet in about two weeks.

The number of holdings is quite small. I wonder if they will sell some Avidity to avoid over concentration. These are the problems we want to be talking about !

[rimau1] 28/3/2024 07:21

Results out as expected nothing new particularly even in the 2024 outlook. However at the AGM in May there will be a 2024 portfolio update and shareholder Q&A.

[rimau1] 27/3/2024 15:56

Avidity up another 6percent today or 67percent since end Feb. Now that is interesting...

[makinbuks] 26/3/2024 18:01

True, but the commentary can be interesting and "as of" the date of publication

[rimau1] 26/3/2024 17:33

Results y/e 31Dec on or around Thursday 28th March. Still pre Axis so potentially not very interesting given we get a monthly factsheet

[rambutan2] 26/3/2024 14:04

Apogee was 2% of nav at end of jan, but in feb the Arix assets joined so all percentages changed.

Avidity was 1.9% at end of jan. So they must have bought in big time in feb, likely as an insider in the fund raising at $16.50.

I think the y/e results are out this week or next. Will be interesting to hear what they've got to say.

[makinbuks] 25/3/2024 17:12

Avidity is up 26% from the end of Feb, and was 9% of the fund

Apogee is up 94% since Feb, not clear how material to NAV that holding is, could be c.1% (last stated position I can find is 0.6% last June which was at IPO)

And they've bought back 2.25m shares in March or 0.6%

Discount around 33% at this level

[rambutan2] 23/3/2024 20:39

Apogee (APGE) is another big, up 50%, riser this month on the back of trial news and subsequent raise. RTW was a backer from pre IPO at multiples lower.

[rambutan2] 21/3/2024 22:09

Yes, very wrongly priced currently. The sector trades on around a 10% discount, so this has got really out of wack. And especially so considering it is a top performer and has a quality manager. It offers a rare opportunity to buy a real no brainer. imho.

Sector stats:


I note that in the last fact sheet, Avidity came from nowhere to be 9% of nav. Since then, it is up approx 40% on good news and a fund raise in which RTW participated. This just illustrates one of the great advantages offered by being part of the RTW platform, one of the elite bio investors in the States.

[rimau1] 14/3/2024 10:37

Discount is much too wide here, accretive buybacks and plenty of cash, 1.40 looks about right in the short term.

[ntv] 14/3/2024 08:32

Increase of 5c since last update
A couple of larger holdings have been on the move since the end of Feb

[ntv] 08/3/2024 07:53

Cargo T going for open sky

[rimau1] 21/2/2024 19:10

Its a good question, not really small single digit accretive was it!! They have set out all the reasons why a downward revision could have occurred since 31 Jan. Most likely is that they have now applied the RTW valuation methodology to the Arix privately held assets. I also think the the Jan 31 NAV of $1.94 was artificially high since it included the 25.5% stake in Axis that they had purchased for £1.37 which was worth £1.44 at 31 Jan. Just a guess.

[jaf111] 21/2/2024 15:10

Agree that it certainly looks attractive but have to admit being very disappointed with the $1.88 proforma number.
When the “merger” was announced last November RTW stated it was expected to be immediately accretive to RTW NAV per share……
But the end Jan (pre merger) NAV was $1.94 per share……..
Have I missed something??????

[rimau1] 21/2/2024 14:30

Added this morning, unaudited nav is $1.88 proforma combined. 30% discount is too large IMO.

[rimau1] 14/2/2024 09:55

Agreed, add that to my shopping list under Macro! You raise a good point and a key buy case here is if you are bullish on Biotech having a good year after the prolonged bear market. All indicators point to this being the case and is a big contributor to RTW's NAV shooting up from the mid $1.60's to $1.90's - look at the quoted holdings price action since Dec (RCKT, IMCR make up 20% of NAV pre Arix)

[weatherman] 14/2/2024 09:45

Its partly due to the depressed market, where investment valuations in unquoted companies are not fully trusted by the market. As confidence returns, then the gap to NAV should close.

[rimau1] 14/2/2024 08:19

Of course there are Weatherman, its much more complicated than that as you know. Quality of management team, composition of holdings, sector, exit opportunities/realisations/news pipeline/cash available for new investments/accretive buyback appetite/historic performance. I would venture that RTW ticks all the boxes for me personally.

[weatherman] 14/2/2024 08:14

There are lots of investment companies selling at large discounts to NAV.

[jaf111] 14/2/2024 07:56

Yes that sounds about right….but it really shouldn’t take long to calculate 🤔
Certainly concur regarding compelling entry point….time will tell 🤞🤞🤞

[rimau1] 14/2/2024 07:47

I may be shooting from the hip but I recall the official word at the time being "low single digit accretive impact" of the pro forma group. Compelling entry point at $1.26 IMO

[jaf111] 14/2/2024 07:39

As useful as the Jan NAV is the more interesting figure will be the pro forma NAV which they will publish “at the soonest opportunity”

[weatherman] 14/2/2024 07:17

January update - $1.94 NAV

[weatherman] 13/2/2024 10:23

A very predictable movement today - trying to lock-in ARIX shareholders from selling.