Ironveld Share Discussion Threads

[ladeside] 11/4/2024 12:34

There seems to be some strange stuff going on as regards SP, as it appears to be held at 0.10 irrespective of the amount of selling (and there's been a lot).

I'm wondering if some sort of funding deal is being done behind the scenes with 0.10 as the strike price ?

Maybe just wishful thinking on my part, however they've had lots of opportunities to take it down to 0.9 / 0.8 etc and I don't think anyone would have any complaints if they did ?

As I say, it does seem strange to me.

[ladeside] 05/4/2024 14:16

Yes, once again I'd agree with that and I've always been a sucker for all or nothing but at this point I'm 100% prepared for total wipe out and have in fact factored it in already.

As regards averaging down again, I'm undoubtedly daft but I'm not completely stupid....

[rec0very stock] 05/4/2024 12:39

In terms of current liabilities, the £261k of borrowings are certainly soft and some of the £3.818m trade and other payables will be directors' salaries which can be considered soft. Some will be wages for people who have probably been laid off now (they will want paying as soon as the company has money, but are probably prepared to stay quiet until then), some will be payments to mining and transport contractors and some will be payments for overpriced generator hire (all of these could start legal proceedings or at least threaten to, which would unnerve any loan provider). £680k is smelter debt repayment, defaulting on that could lead to the smelter being repossessed. I am guessing the increase in non current payables of £128k is 6 months worth of interest on the non current part of the smelter loan (works out at just over 6% so not as bad as it could have been).

My guess is JW may have cut new cash burn to £50k per month, while the company spins its wheel going nowhere, but it would take a placing in excess of £1.5m to keep all the wolves from the door for the months still to wait before there is some certainty, one way or another, about the loan. I don't see any realistic prospect of getting new generators and restarting production before any major loan. Indeed I can't see anyone doing anything for the company without cash up front.

You seem to have decided to go down with the ship, hopefully you are not tempted to average down again, as you have in the past. There is no point losing money if you do not learn some lessons from it.

[ladeside] 05/4/2024 11:15

Yes, I don't disagree with anything you've said there Recovery, the only thing maybe, is that quite a portion of the liabilities are soft loans / in house but of course we DO still owe the money on the smelter purchase.

From my own perspective I've already taken a large hit and could obviously still salvage a few grand but fortunately my main (mostly safe if a little boring) investments are doing fine and ultimately it's not life changing in any way should I be wiped out, apart from perhaps delaying my retirement by a year or so.

I suppose there's always drug dealing if all else fails as every criminal I know seems to do pretty well out of it.....

[aceuk] 05/4/2024 11:12

On that last point big and total are now so similar it makes little difference ;-)

[rec0very stock] 05/4/2024 11:04

Ladeside,

A lot has changed since 2013/4. In my view none of those changes help IRON to ultimate success. Even the failed attempt at production is evidence that the resource really is not all it was cracked up to be.

It is far easier to look back and see what went wrong, but investing is about trying to look forward and to do that successfully requires taking off the rose tinted glasses. I honestly believed at the time that the Grosvenor offer of finance would be different this time. But as soon as it became clear that that was just an illusion created by GC's lies, my rose tinted glasses were consigned to the bin. Whilst we had our disagreements, hopefully you can see that I called this pretty well from the point I sold the majority of my remaining holdings onwards.

So looking forward now, you are correct that that is the only real hope, but it is a very slim one. The dire net current liabilities position, which has been made much worse over the last 6 months, is potentially what will kill the company before any loan comes and will certainly put off any genuine financier - a big proportion of any loan would need to go straight to other creditors and not into the investment needed to give the company a chance of becoming genuinely cash generative at PLC level. It will also make getting a placing away very difficult. If TPI do manage to get another one away it is likely to be at a massive discount, not be for very much and be gone very quickly.

There is no evidence (eg an independent up to date D/BFS), only biased hope, that, even if there was enough money to get to full HPIP production, the company would be cash generative and able to service a large loan. I therefore believe that if any loan comes, it will not be from a credible standard financing source, but would have so many onerous conditions attached that it would itself lead to failure.

In my experience the proceeds of fire sales have a nasty way of finding themselves distributed to everyone except shareholders.

My 28k shares are worth so little they will go down with the ship, however you need to think seriously about what you are going to do with your holding - taking big losses is painful but not as painful as taking total losses.

[malcolmmm] 04/4/2024 19:32

MALCOLMMM4 Sep '22 - 19:44 - 7019 of 8221 Edit
0 0 0
IMO all the money will go in employees' wages, bonuses ,share options ,payments for the licences and farmers rentals and maintenance of the land etc etc I give it 12 months.

Key Executives
Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born
Mr. Martin Wentworth Eales CEO & Director 175k N/A 1972
Dr. Peter John Cox BSc Min Eng, Dip Civil Eng Technical Director & Director 101k N/A 1955
Said Izagaren Sr. Account Mang. N/A N/A N/A
Ms. Keneilwe Ndala Chief Exec. Officer of Ironveld Mining N/A N/A N/A
Mr. Thamaga Mphahlele Chief Exec. Officer of Ironveld Smelting N/A N/A N/A
Mr. William Brian James Sec. N/A N/A N/A
Income 2021 2020 2019
Turnover 0 0 0
Cost of sales 0 0 0
Gross Profit 0 0 0
Operating Profit -£783,000.00 -£695,000.00 -£629,000.00
Pre-Tax profit -£465,000.00 -£1.02 m -£625,000.00
Ironveld PLC Company Background

[ladeside] 04/4/2024 17:57

As it stands I think we can all agree that the company is in a very precarious position and our only real hope is that JW can keep us ticking along until a genuine cash injection is received, if not, then it's a case of salvage what we can via a fire sale (which is unlikely to be much) otherwise it's pretty much game over.

Have we all been "had" to this point ? Yes, I'd say that's pretty obvious.

Were the warning signs there ? Yes, they undoubtedly were, however once again those of us who remained made the mistake of believing that there was a semblance of regulation in the country and that RNS's and investor podcasts might at least have had some sort of truth in them.

As I've said before, is it really any wonder that AIM is becoming un-investable and that the whole UK market in general is losing credibility ??

There's only so many times you can lie and cheat people before they wake up and see the corruption for what it is and I think the tipping point has just about come if not already here.....

[ladeside] 04/4/2024 17:47

In fairness you "saw the light" as it were but it seems you had that Ironveld scarf and hat along with the rest of us at one time and undoubtedly came a cropper along with the rest of us, just at a different point in time.....

I do see your point to an extent as I often wonder how AB gets away with it time and time again (over at RRR) and new investors don't seem to understand the history or somehow think that THEY will be the ones that will see everything turn, so Yes, I do actually understand your reasoning and your motivation for your continued posting.

[ladeside] 04/4/2024 17:40

Rec0very Stock - 07 Jun 2013 - 20:17:40 - 404 of 8216 Ironveld plc - IRON
Nice steady progress. There are some profit takers as one would expect, but I expect the rise to continue for a while yet, particularly if they get some more press attention over the weekend.

We are in completely uncharted territory, there will be down days as well as up days, but I am expecting this to settle around the 18p mark in the short term.
Rec0very Stock - 05 Jun 2013 - 19:45:44 - 397 of 8216 Ironveld plc - IRON
Well worth waiting for. I make that an NPV10 of around £2.50 per share with upside to come from the Titanium.

It is still early days and there is $1Bn of capital to raise, but not all at once and the 12 MW smelter will generate some of it. But even applying a risk factor of 90% the share price should be around 25p. The rocket launch has only just begun, strap in and enjoy the ride.


Rec0very Stock - 24 May 2013 - 18:06:50 - 390 of 8216 Ironveld plc - IRON
I do not believe 6 weeks is a hard rule, but there does need to be a respectable period.

Broke through the placing price today but dropped back at the close. I think their could well be an opportunity to get in below 6p but I would not bank on getting in much lower than that.
Rec0very Stock - 23 May 2013 - 18:29:33 - 387 of 8216 Ironveld plc - IRON
The PFS was due "early in the new year" it has been due out "shortly" a few times since and most recently it is due out in Q2. If it was not for the great track record of the management in delivering what counts, I would have taken my money and run.

The recent director buying may well be an indication that it still has a little while before it comes out as there could be accusations about insider trading if it followed hot on the heels of a PDMR buy.

Ultimately is does not matter when it comes as long as it is as good as we have been led to believe when it does come - NPV between 80p - £1 a share. This does not mean the shares instantly become worth that, just what they could be worth if everything goes to plan. Some adjustment needs to be made based on the risks of things not going to plan.

In the meantime the resistance from the Placing price is holding
Rec0very Stock - 22 May 2013 - 19:33:09 - 380 of 8216 Ironveld plc - IRON
Hit a bit of resistance today at the placing price. If it breaks through tomorrow there is no knowing where it will stop. If not it may pull back below 6p, but that will probably be the last chance to get in before the PFS comes out.

Rec0very Stock - 21 May 2013 - 19:05:19 - 378 of 8216 Ironveld plc - IRON
I did say you might not get much of a pull back. I think, when the PFS does come out, provided it confirms the Shore Capital NPV figures, we could see 12 - 18p fairly rapidly.

[ladeside] 04/4/2024 17:38

NOW, it all becomes clear.....

[ladeside] 03/4/2024 21:29

A definitive Feasibility Study published in April 2014 confirms the project's viability to deliver an exceptionally high-grade iron product (99.5% Fe) called High Purity Iron which commands a premium in the market place. The shallow mineralised resource of 56.4 million tonnes of ore grading 1.12% V205 is approximately twice the grade of other Vanadium resources that are currently being mined and processed within the Bushveld Complex. Ironveld plc is an exploration and development company incorporated in England and Wales and listed on the AIM of the London Stock Exchange.

[rec0very stock] 01/4/2024 10:41

All entirely predictable and indeed some of us predicted it - GC and ME have been deceiving investors for years. Why is any of this a surprise now?

The current cash burn even with everything shut down and the current cash position are dire. Will they even be able to get a placing away at any price? The company is technically trading whist insolvent with over £3.5m of net current liabilities, facilities all fully drawn, £25k of cash left and several more months before there is any hope of this mega loan. How big does that loan need to be - sounds like it is getting closer to £10m and there is no proper BFS/DFS to support it. That will make due dilligence interesting!

JW will not keep throwing good money after bad forever.

[aceuk] 29/3/2024 17:08

My guess is Wardle won't want to see a large portion of his personal wealth go down a hole in the veld.

What and how much is rescued is anybody's guess right now.

[ladeside] 29/3/2024 15:20

In one respect at least it's now all out there and JW is telling it exactly how it is, as you say Ace, there's no guarantee we'll come out the other side but I guess we just have to hope that the funding arrives and that we're able to raise enough to tide us over until such times.

If that fails to happen then maybe they'll try selling off what'll they can in a fire sale, it might be useless to us but a major with the deep pockets required would maybe be able to make a right good go of it, especially if they can pick it up for a few Million after all the Donkey work has already been done ??

Much will depend on how JW sees things given he has both the inside info and obviously the major shareholding.

[aceuk] 28/3/2024 19:31

I guess some will regard it as very bizarre but I'm sort of reassured by reading that little lot carefully and slowly. Whether any of our funds can be saved or retrieved I have no idea though. Mr Jennings should have listened to me and I should have paid more careful attention to others at the time.

[ladeside] 28/3/2024 15:47

Instead of just voting me down like an angry moron, I'm sure it would be much more interesting if you debated what your issue is with my post ???

[al101uk] 28/3/2024 14:48

MALCOLMMM,

Have you read ANY of the previous posts?

[malcolmmm] 28/3/2024 14:17

Anyone still investing in these shouldn't be buying shares in the first place. Go on averaging down you know it makes NO sense Stupid comes to mind

[al101uk] 28/3/2024 14:14

So GC turned out to be Giles Clarke all along.

Sing potential good news from the rooftops, keep quiet about actual bad news for as long as possible and then just relase an RNS that assumes that everyone knew the bad news all along. Platanillo and the pipeline went exactly that way with Amerisur. PI's filled in the blanks with excuses and things kept trucking along.

In terms of the companies future, nothing has really changed since the last RNS. An interim fund raise needed to tide the company over until their potential financiers make a decision. The costs are probably higher than shareholders have previously been made aware of because Ironvelds previous CEO was incompetent. The assets given away to secure Ironvelds future will likely therefore be greater.

Not sure how this plays out in a fire sale. The upgraded smelter will likely go back to the creditors, the mining licenses will likely go on the cheap or be picked up from the administrators if there aren't multiple interested parties. There wasn't huge interest last time, so...

I think the book value is a red herring for a number of reasons, the primary one being that it is not a risk adjusted valuation of the assets. It's more closely related to the amount of money the company have pumped in to their development in capex costs. A chunk of that will be the smelter refit, another chunk was wasted. In desperate times a good chunk of what may be left will be heavily discounted.

I don't think things would have been any better with RJ and the stories not told yet. Lets see what JW can do.

As for not investing in AIM... welcome to the club Ladeside :-)

Although I'd refine that to AIM listed companies that are not able to provably sustain themselves. There are AIM listed profitable dividend paying companies.

[dbfromgb] 28/3/2024 12:18

Indeed, awful! The one positive I take is that it makes a sale of the company and its assets more likely so that we can get closure. Martin Eales said that there had been a number of approaches, but at a value that did not reflect the true potential of the assets. Expectations may now have to be revised, but even on a fire sale basis my view is that the net assets are worth more than the market cap. Price to BV is 0.29!