I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ozzywalker] 19/4/2024 18:36

Been around the world there's no place like home...

[genises] 19/4/2024 18:31

RoundtheWorld18 Apr '24 - 21:59 - 35974 of 35994
0 3 0
Canada finished down circa 2.5%. Is this all about to turn sour again?

Nope
Canada up 7.6% today 13,22p

[genises] 19/4/2024 18:27

13.22p to buy in Canada at the moment
Onwards to 14p

[ozzywalker] 19/4/2024 17:52

IT FRIDAY NIGHT....WE GONNA PARTY LIKE ITS FRIDAY NIGHT

[genises] 19/4/2024 17:03

Bit disappointed ☹️
We missed my 13p by end of Friday.lol
Certainly had a few numpties on here trying to drop the price.
14p by next week or more depending on Rnses.
Good luck to all those long term holders who stuck it out to the low of 8.4p
Thank you to the sellers

😎💰💰💰8176;💰Ԇ40;

[rockyride] 19/4/2024 16:14

Bit of FOMO creeping into n ready for the tasty RNS next week. I don't see 30p just yet but I can see 20p TY.

[goodday1] 19/4/2024 15:24

I think we are leaving the sellers behind!Poor plonker & all his aliases.Poor Sunbed & all the R&R posters.All on ignore.Happy to be past the bagging time, looking for the next milestone.I told you 6p then 4p, maybe the moron was suggesting an addition of 6p & then another 4p to the SP! Lol.See at 18p.12.6065p to sell, I believe.Gl all

[tonynorstrom1] 19/4/2024 12:40

I've not ignored the principal payments. I've shown you the numbers that i'm looking at in the valuation calculation which dont include any debt repayments. However, now you mention it, take off tax from the income figure I have shown and also add a notional interest payment and capital repayment (because we will be taking on debt for either a drilling program or M&A or both) and then see what you think the dividend cover is - closer to 1 than 2 by my calculation.

[rockyride] 19/4/2024 12:12

FWIW - Id like to see at least 10 new oil wells being drilled in 2024 when the CAPEX RNS is released - probably next week.

[marktime1231] 19/4/2024 12:00

You continue to ignore the CAD25M pa no longer absorbed by debt amortisation.

We will just have to disagree and wait to see what Maj does next.

[tonynorstrom1] 19/4/2024 11:21

I have no problem with anyone disagreeing with me - but put a proper argument together for why you disagree and then maybe I learn something, the BB learns something or the person challenging me learns something.

I put a detailed valuation calculation and all he could come up with was :

"Your calculations confuse theory and hope with reality" - does anyone know what that means and did that further anyones knowledge on i3e. This is not a one off either - most of his posts are similarly useless.

If trevorthegreat was to come back - justify his calculation and let the BB know where I have got it wrong - that would be great - we all learn something and have a better understsnding of what our i3e shares are worth.

Anyway have a good week end all including RTW !

[swanvesta] 19/4/2024 10:48

Some say China is as much in charge of oil prices as Saudi Arabia these days. Their inventories dwarf the SPR and they move up and down by 10s of millions of barrels as Brent fluctuates between $70 and $90.

[roundtheworld] 19/4/2024 10:41

Tony

No sorry. Good luck with your search though.

Let’s leave it there as you seem to be gearing up to one of your angry moments and you’re much nicer when calm.

[tonynorstrom1] 19/4/2024 10:16

RTW - not meaning to sound rude - are you a bit backwards ?

[roundtheworld] 19/4/2024 10:03

Tony

I worry about you. Do you have anger issues? I picture you with a small moustache, beige shorts and long powder blue socks constantly marching around and arguing with people in the small South African town you seem to live in.

[roundtheworld] 19/4/2024 09:16

Tony

Your calculations confuse theory and hope with reality. You could make the same mistake with most companies. Barclays for example should trade at 3 times it’s current share price based on fundamentals.

The good news this morning is that the latest air strikes by Israel into Iran seem like a few token fire works and Netanyahu is at last showing some restraint. Let’s hope this is the start of more peaceful times particularly in Gaza. Oil should now also come down in price which will help us all at the petrol pumps and offset some of the pain you’ll feel with a retrace in share price here.

For those who say I’m all doom and gloom…it just isn’t so.

[tonynorstrom1] 19/4/2024 09:08

The calculation Imo is fatally floored - it doesn’t take into account that the royalty barrels are revenues that don’t have associated opex, capex and other costs. Here’s my calculation – a bit rough - comments welcome:

$3.6m (income per year on royalty bbls) / (388 boepd x 365 days) = $25.42 / boe
(i.e. each royalty barrels earns $25.42 / boe)

Doing a similar calculation for i3e’s production barrels starting from NOI and deducting costs to come up with an income per boe.

$93m (NOI) – $18m (SG&A) - $3.6m (Royalty boe) - $25m (Capex) - $4m (abandonment) - $5m (hedging loss) = $37.4 (income)

$37.4m / (19,500 boepd x 365) = $5.25 / boe
(i.e. each production barrel earns about $5.25 / boe)

25.42 / 5.25 = 4.84
(i.e. each royalty barrel earns 4.84 x more income than each production barrel)

Valuation of Royalty Barrels = $64k per flowing boe

£147m (market cap) x 1.25 = $183.7m / 19500 boepd = $9.4k per flowing boe (valuation of i3e’s production barrels)

$64k/$9.4k = 6.81

6.81/4.84 = 1.41 (i.e. the royalty barrels attract a premium of about 1.41x production barrels on an income basis)

Or put another way i3e’s share price should be trading at a minimum 1.41 x 12.3p = 17.3p

I think there is upside to this valuation as the barrels are from Central Albert which are the most gas weighted bbls in i3e’s portfolio with Clearwater and the Montney potentially being much more valuable on a boe basis.

[marvelman] 19/4/2024 08:07

Has anyone else noticed the similarities between the postings of RTW and Fandangle? Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde comes to mind.

Anyway, Like Genesis. I am also sitting comfortably here and also waiting for the next piece of the jigsaw our BOD fits into place in this evolving transformative creation of a very investable company.

[genises] 19/4/2024 07:03

Yep sitting here 😊
Watching waiting for the takeover.
It will come the boys have plenty of experience in this area.
Fully loaded as all long term shareholders know all the way down to 8.4p 34 trades.
The last Rns was investor changing.
Not long for the quarterly dividend payment 0.25p
1p a year.9% for some 20% for others who brought in the placing a few years ago.
Good luck to those who are buying.

[trevorthegreat] 19/4/2024 01:13

388 boe/d / 19,000 production base (it's higher) = 2.04% = 0.0204

388 boe/d = CAD 33.5M

CAD 33.5M / 0.0204 = CAD 1,642,16M = CAD 1.64B

$TSE:ITE Current Market Cap = CAD 246.5M

Undervalued! Debt free, safe 9% dividend, and access to CAD 75M for opportunistic acquisitions. OPEC is going to continue cutting production, Russian refineries are going to continue getting hit, etc. Prices are going up and so will this stock price :)

[tonynorstrom1] 19/4/2024 00:03

“48% of the company is gas then. I stand corrected. I’m not sure this is anything to celebrate and means nearly half the company is effectively worthless”

Guess which idiot said this – did he not read the RNS yesterday or see Majids Interview today.

Majid described the sale of 388 boepd of Royalty Production as “non-core and not particularly Oily at 50% Gas, 16% Oil and the balance Condensate and NGL’s”

This production was from Central Alberta and is amongst i3e’s most gas weighted acreage. The 388 boepd is out of i3e’s total production of around 20,000 boepd and sold for just over $24m (equivalent to around $64k per flowing boe). Far from worthless – these assets are extremely valuable – what is this halfwit talking about??

RTW should move in with Fanny and Bumble Bee – I think they would have a lot to talk about!

[tonynorstrom1] 18/4/2024 22:55

Using the formula coverege = net income / dividend

where net income = revenues - expenses - taxes - interest - maintenance capex

I have the coverage ratio much much closer to 1 than the 2 you come up with.


And if you look at the 2023 Capex budget - it was around $30m and increased the production by an estimated 3%. So very roughly $25m is stay flat / maintenance capex.

Where is the spare money to increase the dividend ?

my assumption here is that they will want to fund the dividend / dividend increases out of net income and not one off asset sales or debt although this does give them the flexibility to cover any very temporary shortfall.

So in summary I believe the dividend is safe but the coverage ratio is low at current production and gas price levels