Upstream Share Discussion Threads

[master rsi] 20/4/2024 00:07

KEFI 0.554p UT spread 0.554 v 0.56p

once again share price has bounced up from support

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 22:46

Directors deals: Ashtead Technology finance director adds to holdings
(Sharecast News) - Ashtead Technology's finance director sold some shares to cover her obligations with HMRC after exercising options under the company's incentive plan.

However, she pocketed the remainder of the shares.

Ingrid Stewart exercised nil cost options over 164,610 shares on 18 April, of which she sold 82,471.

Following the transaction she was left with 317,925 shares representing 0,4% of the company's share capital.

As of 1555 BST shares of Ashtead Technology were edging up by 0.41% to 738p in a falling market and roughly 7% beneath their all-time highs.

Top Director Buys

Robert Walters (RWA)

Director name: Bower,David

Amount purchased: 10,000 @ 380.00p

Value: £38,000.00

Robert Walters (RWA)

Director name: Van de Walle,Leslie

Amount purchased: 7,000 @ 389.50p

Value: £27,265.00

Dp Poland (DPP)

Director name: Dibb,Jeremy

Amount purchased: 241,935 @ 9.92p

Value: £23,999.95

Alpha Real Trust Ltd. (ARTL)

Director name: Simpson,William (Bill)

Amount purchased: 10,000 @ 142.00p

Value: �14,200.00

Empresaria Group (EMR)

Director name: Anderson,Tim

Amount purchased: 30,000 @ 35.99p

Value: £10,797.00

Schroder Asian Total Return Investment Company (ATR)

Director name: Judd ,Jasper

Amount purchased: 2,283 @ 435.61p

Value: �9,944.98

Empresaria Group (EMR)

Director name: Anderson,Tim

Amount purchased: 5,000 @ 35.99p

Value: £1,799.50



Top Director Sells

Ashtead Technology Holdings (AT.)

Director name: Stewart,Ingrid

Amount sold: 82,471 @ 743.00p

Value: £612,759.52

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 22:24

MARKET REPORT
LONDON MARKET CLOSE: Stocks tentative on rising Israel-Iran tensions

(Alliance News) - Stock prices in London closed up on Friday, as investors showed caution in reaction to Israel carrying out retaliatory strikes on the Iranian central province of Isfahan.

The FTSE 100 index closed up 18.80 points, or 0.2%, at 7,895.85. The FTSE 250 ended down 59.37 points, 0.3%, at 19,391.30, and the AIM All-Share closed up 0.38 of a point, 0.1%, at 745.67.

Across the week, they were down 1.3%, 1.7% and 1.4% respectively.

The Cboe UK 100 ended up 0.2% at 788.44, the Cboe UK 250 closed down 0.3% at 16,792.60, and the Cboe Small Companies ended up 0.1% at 14,785.62.

Oil prices jumped before settling a little lower, after Iran's state media reported explosions in the central province of Isfahan on Friday. US media quoted officials saying Israel had carried out retaliatory strikes on its arch-rival.

Israel had previously warned it would hit back after Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel almost a week ago, in retaliation for a deadly strike on Iran's embassy in Syria which Tehran blamed on its foe.

Fears of a major regional spillover from the Gaza war have since soared.

A barrel of Brent oil fell to USD87.01 at the London equities close on Friday, from USD87.15 at the European equities close on Thursday. It had previously, however, traded as high as USD90.71.

"In a week that started with Iran's drone and missile attack on Israel and which ended with Israel's retaliatory strike on Iran, it is somewhat surprising that the price of Brent crude fell. After all, the risk to physical supply of oil has clearly risen with the latest attack on Iran," said Capital Economics analyst Caroline Bain.

"However, we think it is not in the interests of either Iran or Israel to disrupt the regional trade in energy and that, for now, it will be off limits even if retaliatory attacks continue."

Tensions in the Middle East have also boosted the dollar's "position", ING analysts said.

Against the dollar, sterling fell to USD1.2410 at the London equities close on Friday, from USD1.2464 on Thursday. The euro rose to USD1.0664 from USD1.0660. Against the yen, the buck bought JPY154.52, down from JPY154.60.

A recent re-assessment of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations has supported the dollar. The Fed's most recent projections suggested three rate cuts could be in the offing this year, though at least one of those has been priced out by the market.

New York Fed President John Williams on Thursday said the US central bank feels no "urgency to cut interest rates".

The next Fed decision is on May 1. Another rate hold is expected.

Brown Brothers Harriman commented: "The fundamental backdrop of US economic outperformance coupled with hawkish Fed rhetoric remains in play. Fed officials have started to mention the possibility of hikes.

"To be clear, a hike this year is unlikely. However, just the fact that Fed officials are acknowledging the possibility is a huge shift from its previous intent to begin cutting rates this year. If market pricing were to shift in favour of hikes, the impact on markets would be huge. Stay tuned."

Stocks in New York were mixed at the London equities close, with the DJIA up 0.4%, the S&P 500 index down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.1%.

UK retail sales volumes climbed year-on-year in March, but were flat on the month before, numbers showed.

According to the Office for National Statistics, retail sales rose 0.8% in March from a year prior, though were still 1.2% below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Sales had declined 0.3% on-year in February.

Sales were flat in March from February, following a 0.1% rise in February from January. February's reading was upwardly revised. Retail sales volumes for that month were initially reported to have been flat from January.

The outcome for March fell short of FXStreet-cited market consensus. Growth of 0.3% had been expected.

Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst Rob Wood said that "stagnating March retail sales provide a disappointing end to the quarter."

However, stagnation is a significant turnaround from the large retail volumes falls seen over the past two years, he noted, while retail sales volumes rebounded 1.9% quarter-to-quarter in the first three months of 2024.

This will add 0.1 percentage points to first quarter gross domestic product, he estimated.

In European equities on Friday, the CAC 40 in Paris closed marginally down, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt ended down 0.5%.

German producer prices fell year-on-year in March, but climbed on-month, numbers showed.

According to Destatis, producer prices declined 2.9% in March from a year prior, easing from a 4.1% annual fall in February.

On a monthly basis, they rose 0.2% in March, topping the FXStreet cited consensus, which had predicted producer prices to be flat from February.

In February, producer prices declined 0.4% from January. Producer prices had risen 0.2% in January from December.

In London's FTSE 100, Mondi topped gains, rising 9.3%.

The packaging and paper company said it does not plan on making an offer for DS Smith, which lost 9.9%.

In early March, DS Smith and Mondi agreed to an in principal takeover deal, which valued DS Smith shares at 373 pence each. At the time, Mondi said the possible merger would create a company worth more than GBP10 billion.

On Friday, Mondi said it has considered the value of the takeover to its shareholders, and based on this, has decided against the transaction.

On Tuesday, DS Smith accepted an takeover approach from International Paper Co, a Tennessee-based pulp and paper supplier.

The offer will see DS Smith shareholders receive 0.1285 International Paper shares for every one held in DS Smith. The bid values DS Smith at around GBP5.8 billion on a fully diluted basis, and its enterprise value at around GBP7.8 billion.

In the FTSE 250, Man Group led losses, falling 6.6%.

The active investment manager focused on private markets said assets under management on March 31 were USD175.7 billion, up 4.9% from USD167.5 billion on December 31.

Man Group suffered USD1.6 billion in net outflows in the first quarter of 2024, but recorded a positive investment performance of USD9.8 billion to create the rise in AuM.

Alternative strategies saw USD3.2 billion in net outflows in the recent quarter, balanced by net inflows of USD1.6 billion into Long-only strategies.

Elsewhere in London, 888 rose 4.8%.

The sports betting and gambling company, which owns brands including 888casino and William Hill, said first-quarter revenue declined but topped expectations, ahead of a possible name change.

First-quarter revenue was GBP431 million, down 3.2% on-year but ahead of the GBP420 million to GBP430 million it had predicted. 888 noted that revenue was up, however, by 2% from the fourth quarter of 2023.

It explained that this reflects "a continuation of positive sequential quarter-on-quarter trends." UK & Ireland online revenue alone fell 1% due to "reduced sports venues and increased customer investment across the Cheltenham Festival in comparison to last year", which a 4% growth in gaming could not offset.

888 shareholders will also get a vote on its possible name change to Evoke PLC at its annual general meeting in May.

Gold traded at USD2,391.85 an ounce at the London equities close on Friday, up from USD2,384.41 late Thursday.

In Monday's UK corporate calendar, Mobico posts its full-year results.

The economic calendar has the release of the latest interest rate decision for China.

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 22:07

DOW

Finished 211 points higher

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 16:23

How the UPS are performing today

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 16:09

Broker tips: DS Smith, Man Group
Sharecast News) - Numis downgraded its stance on packaging group DS Smith on Friday to 'hold' from 'buy' as it said there was insufficient upside to retain a buy rating.

It noted the shares have rallied by around 30% year-to-date and now trade on FY25 EV/ EBITDA and price-to-earning multiples of 6.8x and 11.3x, respectively, which are close to the stock's medium-term averages.

"The competitive tension indicated by two competing bidders for DS Smith raises the prospect of a materially higher valuation of the stock in the near-term," Numis said.

"While we cannot rule out a competitive bid situation emerging, we think prospects may be limited by Mondi's historic lack of appetite for large scale M&A and modest valuations paid for previous acquisitions."

Numis said it expects the shares to trade closer to the value implied by International Paper's proposal and revised its price target up to 415p from 385p.

Numis put out the research note before Mondi announced that it would not be making an offer for the rival packaging group, clearing the path for a takeover by International Paper.

Investment management firm Man Group reported an improvement in assets under manager in the first quarter, but net outflows during the period caught investors by surprise, causing shares to drop sharply.

The company said AUM totalled $175.7bn by 31 March, up from the $167.5bn reported at the end of the 2023 financial year.

The increase was a result of a $9.8bn positive swing in investment performance, slightly offset by $1.6bn in net outflows.

However, according to analysts at Jefferies, consensus forecasts were for positive net flows of $1.3bn.

In terms of product categories, notable increases in AUM were recorded for 'Japan equity', 'credit and convertibles' and 'global equity'.

"Occasional roadbumps are not unexpected at Man, but the fact that AUM - incl. Absolute Return, driven by strong performance and despite the outflows - is at record highs demonstrates the enduring and more consistent growth in mgmt. fee profitability," Jefferies said.

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 15:21

Billionaire Issa nearing deal to sell Asda stake to TDR Capital

(Sharecast News) - Private equity firm TDR Capital is reportedly closing in on a deal to buy petrol station billionaire Zuber Issa's stake in supermarket chain Asda.

Bloomberg on Friday cited people familiar with the discussions as saying that the agreement for Issa's 22.5% stake would give TDR majority control and could be announced in coming weeks.

The sources declined to specify the terms being discussed.

It was understood that TDR's holding in Asda would rise to about two thirds, and the transaction would further the dismantling of the relationship between brothers Zuber and Mohsin Issa.

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 14:42

DOW

Opening with 119 points higher

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 13:50

US pre-open: Stocks to edge down amid Middle East tensions

(Sharecast News) - US futures pointed to a slightly weaker open on Wall Street on Friday amid growing in tensions in the Middle East.
At 1320 BST, Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 futures were down 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures were 0.2% lower.

Sentiment took a hit across markets following reports that Israel had launched a retaliatory attack on Iran.

Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets, said: "The widely anticipated Israeli retaliation in Iran finally took place, and whilst the initial spike in oil may have highlighted the initial fear of further escalation, we have seen both equities and crude reverse some of those preliminary moves. The Israeli decision to attack an area close to a nuclear facility serves as a warning that they could strike such highly sensitive targets in the future should they wish. However, the Israeli response has been notably more reserved, thanks no doubt to the influence of Western allies who have sought to avoid a wider conflict developing.

"Given the fact that Iran had provided advanced warning of their attack, it is clear that the events of the past week appear to be more about showing their willingness to act rather than actually seeking to incite a war between the two nuclear nations. For markets this is a best case scenario and should hopefully remove the fears that have been playing out within equity and energy markets in particular."

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 12:31

Mondi pulls out of DS Smith takeover race

(Alliance News) - Mondi PLC on Friday said it does not plan on making an offer for DS Smith PLC, as the tussle for the FTSE 100 listed firm took another turn.

Mondi shares were up 9.0% to 1,500.92 pence each in London on Friday around midday. In Johannesburg, shares were up 0.3% to ZAR32,658.00.

Shares in DS Smith, the London-based paper and packaging company, plummeted 10% to 358.00p in London.

In early March, DS Smith and Mondi agreed to an in principal takeover deal, which valued DS Smith shares at 373 pence each.

On Friday, Mondi said it has considered the value of the takeover to its shareholders, and based on this, has decided against the transaction.

On Tuesday, DS Smith accepted an takeover approach from International Paper Co, a Tennessee-based pulp and paper supplier.

The offer will see DS Smith shareholders receive 0.1285 International Paper shares for every one held in DS Smith. The bid values DS Smith at around GBP5.8 billion on a fully diluted basis, and its enterprise value at around GBP7.8 billion.

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 12:26

MARKET REPORT
LONDON MARKET MIDDAY: Stocks down on Israel attack on Isfahan, Iran

(Alliance News) - Stock prices in London were down at midday on Friday, as equity sentiment suffered by worries of a conflict escalation between Iran and Israel, after Iranian state media reported explosions in the province of Isfahan.

The FTSE 100 index was 47.06 points, 0.6%, at 7,829.99. The FTSE 250 was down 166.79 points, 0.9%, at 19,283.88, and the AIM All-Share was down 4.00 points, 0.5%, at 741.29.

The Cboe UK 100 was down 0.7% at 781.76, the Cboe UK 250 was down 0.8% at 16,697.66, and the Cboe Small Companies was marginally down at 14,774.48.

Oil prices jumped before settling lower after Iran's state media reported explosions in the central province of Isfahan on Friday. US media quoted officials saying Israel had carried out retaliatory strikes on its arch-rival.

Israel had previously warned it would hit back after Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel almost a week ago, in retaliation for a deadly strike on Iran's embassy in Syria which Tehran blamed on its foe.

Fears of a major regional spillover from the Gaza war have since soared.

A barrel of Brent oil fell to USD86.53 at midday on Friday, from USD87.15 at the European equities close on Thursday. It had traded as high as USD90.71, however.

"The widely anticipated Israeli retaliation in Iran finally took place, and whilst the initial spike in oil may have highlighted the initial fear of further escalation, we have seen both equities and crude reverse some of those preliminary moves. The Israeli decision to attack an area close to a nuclear facility serves as a warning that they could strike such highly sensitive targets in the future should they wish," said Scope Markets analyst Joshua Mahony.

"However, the Israeli response has been notably more reserved, thanks no doubt to the influence of Western allies who have sought to avoid a wider conflict developing. Given the fact that Iran had provided advanced warning of their attack, it is clear that the events of the past week appear to be more about showing their willingness to act rather than actually seeking to incite a war between the two nuclear nations."

Mahony continued: "For markets this is a best case scenario and should hopefully remove the fears that have been playing out within equity and energy markets in particular."

Tensions in the Middle East have also boosted the dollar's "position", ING analysts said.

Against the dollar, sterling fell to USD1.2437 at midday on Friday, from USD1.2464 at the time of the London equities close on Thursday. The euro fell to USD1.0653 from USD1.0660. Against the yen, the buck bought JPY154.51, down from JPY154.60.

A recent re-assessment of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations has supported the dollar. The Fed's most recent projections suggested three rate cuts could be in the offing this year, though at least one of those has been priced out by the market.

New York Fed President John Williams on Thursday said the US central bank feels no "urgency to cut interest rates".

The next Fed decision is on May 1. Another rate hold is expected.

Stocks in New York were called lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was called down 0.1%, the S&P 500 index down 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.3%.

UK retail sales volumes climbed year-on-year in March, but were flat on the month before, numbers showed.

According to the Office for National Statistics, retail sales rose 0.8% in March from a year prior, though were still 1.2% below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Sales had declined 0.3% on-year in February.

Sales were flat in March from February, following a 0.1% rise in February from January. February's reading was upwardly revised. Retail sales volumes for that month were initially reported to have been flat from January.

The outcome for March fell short of FXStreet-cited market consensus. Growth of 0.3% had been expected.

In European equities on Friday, the CAC 40 in Paris was down 0.3%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt was down 0.6%.

German producer prices fell year-on-year in March, but climbed on-month, numbers showed.

According to Destatis, producer prices declined 2.9% in March from a year prior, easing from a 4.1% annual fall in February.

On a monthly basis, they rose 0.2% in March, topping the FXStreet cited consensus, which had predicted producer prices to be flat from February.

In February, producer prices declined 0.4% from January. Producer prices had risen 0.2% in January from December.

In London's FTSE 100, airline shares struggled, after surging on Thursday following a well-received trading statement from budget carrier easyJet. easyJet traded 1.1% lower early Friday, British Airways parent IAG lost 1.6%, while FTSE 250-listed Wizz Air fell 2.0%,

Lloyds fell 1.0%. Peel Hunt kicked off coverage of the lender with a 'hold' recommendation. It started both NatWest and Barclays at 'buy', though the stocks traded down 0.5% and 0.9% amid Friday's risk-off mood.

In the FTSE 250, Man Group led losses, falling 4.6%.

The active investment manager focused on private markets said assets under management on March 31 were USD175.7 billion, up 4.9% from USD167.5 billion on December 31.

Man Group suffered USD1.6 billion in net outflows in the first quarter of 2024, but recorded a positive investment performance of USD9.8 billion to create the rise in AuM.

Alternative strategies saw USD3.2 billion in net outflows in the recent quarter, balanced by net inflows of USD1.6 billion into Long-only strategies.

Among London's small-caps, 888 rose 3.3%.

The sports betting and gambling company, which owns brands including 888casino and William Hill, said first-quarter revenue declined but topped expectations, ahead of a possible name change.

First-quarter revenue was GBP431 million, down 3.2% on-year but ahead of the GBP420 million to GBP430 million it had predicted. 888 noted that revenue was up, however, by 2% from the fourth quarter of 2023.

It explained that this reflects "a continuation of positive sequential quarter-on-quarter trends." UK & Ireland online revenue alone falls 1% due to "reduced sports venues and increased customer investment across the Cheltenham Festival in comparison to last year", which a 4% growth in gaming could not offset.

888 shareholders will also get a vote on its possible name change to Evoke PLC at its annual general meeting in May.

On AIM in London, Ethernity Networks rose 6.9%, after the supplier of data processing semiconductor technology for networking appliances reports a significant increase in its annual revenue, resulting in a narrowed loss for the company in 2023.

Revenue rose 31% to USD3.8 million in 2023 from USD2.9 million the year before, despite market headwinds. This growth mainly came from a US wireless broadband solution customer, Ethernity said. Pretax loss narrowed to USD6.4 million, from USD8.0 million as a result.

Looking ahead, Ethernity said it expects to secure new contracts for its Carrier Ethernet and PON technology, generating approximately USD2.2 to USD3 million in incremental non-recurring engineering revenue in 2024 on top of its established business.

Gold traded at USD2,380.91 an ounce at midday on Friday, down from USD2,384.41 late Thursday.

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 12:03

How the UPS are performing today

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 11:23

SOMETHING HAS TO BE DONE, too easy to get the sick note it seems, sometime back I saw a report about a place in Wales where about Half of the population were at that stage of long term sick.

Sunak vows to end Britain’s ‘sick note culture’
Rishi Sunak will on Friday vow to end Britain’s “sick note culture”, unveiling a plan to strip GPs of their power to sign people off work.

In a major speech on welfare reform, the Prime Minister will decry the surge in the number of people categorised as long-term sick, and argue that politicians must be brave enough to tackle the issue.

Around a quarter of Britons of working age are economically inactive – 9.4 million of those aged 16 to 64. A record 2.8 million people are inactive owing to long-term sickness, up from around 2.1 million before the Covid pandemic.

Of those, 53 per cent reported that they had depression, bad nerves or anxiety.

Amid concern that the trend is holding the economy back, politicians have been wrestling with what more should be done to get people back into work.

The issue is also seen as a key battleground ahead of the general election, with the Conservatives keen to show voters that they will be tough on welfare reform.

Mr Sunak will say: “We don’t just need to change the sick note, we need to change the sick note culture so the default becomes what work you can do – not what you can’t.

“Building on the pilots we’ve already started, we’re going to design a new system where people have easy and rapid access to specialised work and health support to help them back to work from the very first fit note conversation.

“We’re also going to test shifting the responsibility for assessment from GPs and giving it to specialist work and health professionals who have the dedicated time to provide an objective assessment of someone’s ability to work and the tailored support they need to do so.”
Sick notes, which were rebranded as “fit notes” in a previous reform, are waivers signed by GPs and other doctors that give someone the right not to go into work.

Some 11 million people were issued with fit notes last year – up from 10 million before Covid struck. Government officials argue that those signed off temporarily often then become long-term sick and claim benefits.

Since the pandemic, total public spending on working-age disability and ill-health benefits has increased by almost two-thirds.

The bill was around £42 billion but has soared to £69 billion, meaning more is now being spent on these benefits than the country’s core schools budget or policing budget.

Questions have been raised in recent years about whether GPs, already busy with the backlog from Covid and as patients struggle to get an appointment, are the right people to make the decision about whether someone is fit enough to work.

Ministers are considering whether work health specialists should make the decisions, either alongside or instead of GPs, with more of a focus placed on seeing if someone can stay in work.

Tory government figures argue that this is a more humane approach, reflecting new possibilities to work from home and taking into account the positive health impacts of employment.

But critics are likely to question whether people without medical qualifications are best placed to make decisions about someone’s ability to work.

A call for evidence will be published, with ministers said to be open-minded on the way forward. Some pilots are already trialling experts other than GPs signing off sick notes.

In his speech, the Prime Minister will argue that heightened awareness of mental health issues is a good thing, but also that public debate about the record long-term sick figure is needed.

He is expected to say: “We should see it as a sign of progress that people can talk openly about mental health conditions in a way that only a few years ago would have been unthinkable, and I will never dismiss or downplay the illnesses people have.

“But just as it would be wrong to dismiss this growing trend, so it would be wrong merely to sit back and accept it because it’s too hard, or too controversial, or for fear of causing offence. Doing so would let down many of the people our welfare system was designed to help.

“Because if you believe, as I do, that work gives you the chance not just to earn but to contribute, to belong, to overcome feelings of loneliness and social isolation and if you believe, as I do, the growing body of evidence that good work can actually improve mental and physical health, then it becomes clear – we need to be more ambitious about helping people back to work and more honest about the risk of over-medicalising the everyday challenges and worries of life.”

The Labour Party, as well as the Tories, have identified the trend as one that needs addressing. Liz Kendall, the shadow work and pensions secretary, has expressed concern about the issue.

However, Alison McGovern, the shadow employment minister, said: “This announcement proves that this failed Government has run out of ideas, announcing the same minor alteration to fit notes that we’ve heard them try before.”

Mr Sunak’s speech will also touch on other areas of welfare reform, with the sick note plans just one of five issues Downing Street says he will address.

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 11:05

Novacyt gearing up for hearing in DHSC litigation

(Sharecast News) - Molecular diagnostics specialist Novacyt updated the market on legal proceedings between itself and its subsidiary Primer Design against the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on Friday.

The AIM-traded firm said the trial was scheduled to start on 10 June and conclude on 4 July, with Novacyt expecting the court to reserve judgement.
As part of the standard litigation process, the court set the pre-trial review to be heard on 30 April, which would primarily focus on administrative preparations for the impending trial.

Moreover, the DHSC had lodged an application for summary judgement concerning one aspect of its claim, aiming for judgement to be entered for the full value of its claim.
Novacyt, after consulting legal advice, said it deemed the application as weak with low prospects of success.

The company said it was confident in the court's dismissal of the application, adding that the timing of the court's judgement on the application remained uncertain, potentially occurring during or after the pre-trial review.
Novacyt said it would update the market on the application in due course.

At 1042 BST, shares in Novacyt were up 8.7% at 70p.

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 10:45

We are seeing very encouraging signs for global economy — BoE's Bailey
(Alliance News) - The governor of the Bank of England has said he is seeing "very encouraging signs" for the global economy.

Andrew Bailey told the IMF (International Monetary Fund) that he has witnessed "strong evidence" that the process to reduce inflation "is working its way through" as UK interest rates remain at a 15-year-high of 5.25%.

It came hours after the IMF unveiled new forecasts predicting that the UK will eke out slower growth this year than previously thought and remain the second-worst performer in the G7 group of advanced economies.

The UN financial agency also cautioned that the escalation of conflict in the Middle East risks pushing up food and energy prices across the world on Tuesday.

In an interview with the organisation, Bailey highlighted signs of resilience across the economy.

"I agree with the IMF forecasts and that we are seeing very encouraging signs," he said.

"We are seeing activity and resilience in the world economy, but we are seeing disinflation. In the UK we are disinflating at what I would say is full employment. But I see strong evidence now that the process is working its way through.

"Our judgment with interest rates is how much do we need to see now to be confident of the process."

It comes amid weakening predictions from financial markets in recent weeks over how quickly the central bank will cut interest rates.

This saw further pressure on Tuesday morning after the Office for National Statistics revealed higher than expected wage growth, at 6%, for the three months to February.

Bailey also stressed that the UK and other European countries are seeing different challenges to policymakers in the US.

He said: "I think the dynamics of inflation are rather different between Europe and the US.

"There is more demand led inflation pressure in the US than we are seeing, so I think the inflation dynamics are different.

"We are still seeing the extension of the process of coming out of the big supply shocks that we had – the impact of the war, the impact of coming out of Covid."

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 09:56

MARKET REPORT
LONDON MARKET OPEN: European stocks slump amid Middle East escalation

(Alliance News) - London's FTSE 100 traded lower in early exchanges, with sentiment hurt by worries of a conflict escalation in the Middle East, after state media in Iran reported explosions.

"One of the concerned cities is Isfahan, home to several military bases and facilities, but also to nuclear facilities including the main technology centre. Iran said that the nuclear site is safe," Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya commented.

The FTSE 100 index opened 50.93 points lower, 0.7%, at 7,826.12. The FTSE 250 was down 178.53 points, 0.9%, at 19,272.14. The AIM All-Share was down 4.15 points, 0.6%, at 741.14.

The Cboe UK 100 fell 0.7% to 781.46, the Cboe UK 250 was down 0.8% at 16,706.81, and the Cboe Small Companies lost 0.1% to 14,759.45.

In European equities on Friday, the CAC 40 in Paris was down 0.8% and the DAX 40 in Frankfurt slumped 1.0%.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 tumbled 2.7%. The Shanghai Composite in China ended down 0.3%, while the Hang Seng was 1.0% lower in late dealings. The S&P/ASX 200 ended down 1.0% in Sydney.

Iran's state media reported explosions in the central province of Isfahan Friday, as US media quoted officials saying Israel had carried out retaliatory strikes on its arch-rival.

Israel had previously warned it would hit back after Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel almost a week ago, in retaliation for a deadly strike on Iran's embassy in Syria which Tehran blamed on its foe.

Fears of a major regional spillover from the Gaza war have since soared.

While equities fell in the wake, oil rose, but struggled to stay above the USD90 a barrel mark for long.

A barrel of Brent oil surged to USD87.93 early Friday, from USD87.15 at the European equities close on Thursday. It had traded as high as USD90.71, however.

Lloyds Bank analysts commented: "The oil price initially rose with Brent crude moving back above USD90 but it has subsequently dropped back below USD89 and is still below its level at the start of the week."

Tensions in the Middle East have also boosted the dollar's "position", ING analysts said.

Against the dollar, sterling fell to USD1.2437 early Friday, from USD1.2464 at the time of the London equities close on Thursday. The euro fell to USD1.0650 from USD1.0660. Against the yen, the buck bought JPY154.45, down from JPY154.60.

ING added: "Safe-haven currencies are leading the pack, and there are now risks of a more structural bearish turn on EUR/USD.

"JPY and CHF could gain more than the dollar in a geopolitically-driven risk-off scenario, but the dollar may be able to hold on to gains more easily once some geopolitical risk is priced out. That is because markets have received greater incentives to turn structurally more bullish on the dollar of late."

A recent re-assessment of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations has supported the dollar. The Fed's most recent projections suggested three rate cuts could be in the offing this year, though at least one of those has been priced out by the market.

New York Fed President John Williams on Thursday said the US central bank feels no "urgency to cut interest rates".

The next Fed decision is on May 1. Another rate hold is expected.

In New York on Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%, the S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.5%.

Netflix fell 4.9% in after hours dealings. The streaming service reported bumper growth in new subscribers in the first quarter, alongside better-than-expected results, but predicted a slowdown in the second three months of the year.

In the three months to March 31, revenue rose 15% to USD9.37 billion, from USD8.16 billion a year prior.

Net income jumped 78% to USD2.33 billion from USD1.31 billion, while diluted earnings per share improved to USD5.28, up 83% from USD2.88.

In London, airline shares struggled, after surging on Thursday following a well-received trading statement from budget carrier easyJet. easyJet traded 2.2% lower early Friday, Wizz Air fell 2.1%, while British Airways parent IAG lost 2.7%.

Lloyds fell 1.0%. Peel Hunt kicked off coverage of the lender with a 'hold' recommendation. It started both NatWest and Barclays at 'buy', though the stocks traded down 0.5% and 0.9% amid Friday's risk-off mood.

Elsewhere in London, 888 Holdings added 3.0%. The gambling firm said first quarter revenue topped guidance slightly, despite a small decline in the UK & Ireland online segment.

It reported first-quarter revenue of GBP431 million, down 3.2% on-year but ahead of the GBP420 million to GBP430 million it had predicted.

UK & Ireland online revenue alone fell 1% due to "reduced sports venues and increased customer investment across the Cheltenham Festival in comparison to last year", which a 4% growth in gaming could not offset. The Cheltenham Festival is a major horse racing meet in the UK, which culminates with the annual Gold Cup race.

For the UK & Ireland, 888 said that revenue is expected to return to on-year growth in the second quarter of 2023, "driven by strong customer engagement, new product launches, and the annualization of safer gambling changes."

Gold traded at USD2,387.96 an ounce early Friday, up from USD2,384.41 late Thursday.

UK retail sales volumes climbed year-on-year in March, but were flat on the month before, numbers on Friday showed.

According to the Office for National Statistics, retail sales rose 0.8% in March from a year prior, though were still 1.2% below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Sales had declined 0.3% on-year in February.

Sales were flat in March from February, following a 0.1% rise in February from January. February's reading was upwardly revised. Retail sales volumes for that month were initially reported to have been flat from January.

The outcome for March fell short of FXStreet-cited market consensus. Growth of 0.3% had been expected.

"Within retail, sales were mixed, with automotive fuel and non-food stores sales volumes rising by 3.2% and 0.5%, respectively. This was offset by falls in food stores and non-store retailers of 0.7% and 1.5%," the ONS said.

"Looking at the quarter, sales volumes increased by 1.9% in the three months to March 2024 when compared with the previous three months. This was following low sales volumes over the Christmas period for retailers."

Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst Rob Wood commented: "Stagnating March retail sales provide a disappointing end to the quarter. Even so, stagnation is a significant turnaround from the large retail volumes falls seen over the past two years."

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 09:11

88E 0.235p +0.015p / 88 Energy Limited -FURTHER INFORMATION ON HICKORY-1 FLOW TEST RESULTS
ANNOUNCED 2 AND 15 APRIL 2024

Highlights

· Dual success at Hickory-1 with the flowing of light oil from the USFS and SMD reservoirs.

· Post flow test studies to commence including the securing of additional Contingent Resource estimates.

· Commercialisation options to be considered in parallel, including farm-out to a strategic development partner and/or early and a capital-lite development.

88 Energy Limited (ASX:88E, AIM:88E, OTC:EEENF) (88 Energy or the Company) is pleased to provide a further update and information in relation to the successful flow test results announced on 2 April and 15 April 2024, from the Company's Hickory-1 discovery well, located in Project Phoenix on the North Slope of Alaska (88 Energy ~75% WI owner).

As announced, light oil was recovered from both the USFS and SMD-B reservoirs, with key details from each test summarised below, and to provide additional clarification on the reported results.

Upper SFS (USFS) Flow Test Results

· A 20ft perforated interval in the Upper SFS reservoir was stimulated via a single fracture stage of 241,611 lbs proppant volume.

· The well was cleaned-up and flowed for 111 hours in total, of which 88 hours was under natural flow back and 23.5 hours utilising nitrogen lift. Of the 88 hours of natural flow back period included ~78 hours of clean up with trace oil recovered during this time, and a period of ~ 10.5 hours of established production.

· During the established production period of 10.5 hours the well produced at an average oil flow rate of ~ 42 bopd during the natural flow back period, producing a total of ~ 19bbls of oil. Approximately 6bbls of oil was also recovered during the clean up / non-established production period.

· The USFS test produced at a peak flow rate of over ~70 bopd, which was an instantaneous rate calculated during flow back period via an oil tank volume measurement of 1.55 bbls over a 30 minute period.

· Multiple oil samples were recovered with measured oil gravities of between 39.9 to 41.4 API (representing a light crude oil).

SMD-B Flow Test Results

· A 20ft perforated interval in the SMD-B reservoir was stimulated via a single fracture stage of 226,967 lbs proppant volume.

· The well was cleaned-up and flowed for 84 hours in total under nitrogen lift, with ~68 hours of clean up prior to the flowing of oil to surface, with the well flowing oil over ~16 hour period.

· The well produced at an average oil cut of 4% following initial oil to surface, with instantaneous rates observed during the 16-hour period varying as the well continued to clean up at managed fluid flow rate of ~170 bbls/d with a calculated total volume during the flow back period following establishment of oil cut of ~4 bbls of oil.

· The SMD-B test produced at a calculated peak flow rate of ~50 bopd, which was an instantaneous rate calculated during the flow back period via a measurement of observed oil cut and fluid flow rates.

· Multiple oil samples were recovered with measured oil gravities of between 38.5 to 39.5 API (representing a light crude oil).

Forward Plan

Following the successful flow testing at the Hickory-1 discovery well, 88 Energy will be focused on:

· Completing post-well testing and analysis at Hickory-1;

· Securing a contingent resource for the SFS and SMD reservoirs;

· Commencing a formal farm-out process to attract a high-quality new partner to fund the next stage of appraisal and development; and

· Advance planning and design of an early stage production system.

The Company looks forward to updating shareholders on the post test analysis.

[master rsi] 19/4/2024 08:53

EEE 8.05p +0.35p

A very good start of the day and there is volume 923K to go with the rise