Pci-pal Share Discussion Threads

[this_is_me] 17/4/2024 11:13

yes it is at its hoghest price for almost two years and seems to be heading even higher.

[andre] 17/4/2024 08:32

Quietly continuing its upwards trajectory as it heads towards June. All activity seems to be relatively small of late. But it is reaching new radars or holders are adding ... quietly but surely.

[adamb1978] 13/3/2024 08:32

I agree ppmm. This also makes the ultra-bull case more credible.

That ultra-bull case is that PCIP gets to the same scale relative to the size of the economy in the US that it is in the UK (arguably there is hte potential to get larger given the even more consumer focussed nature of the US).

In that situation, if you say that the UK side of PCIP will be around £20m within 3-4 years, and the US economy is 6x the size of the UK, then turnover has the potential to get well over £100m....admittedly over say 7-10 years, but still there is a logic to it.

[ppmm] 12/3/2024 22:25

A fundraise at zero discount, in this market and before resolution of both UK appeal and proposed US proceedings (if it turns out that Sycurio are so misguided to continue with both that is) gives me reassurance that my confidence in Pc-Pal is not misplaced.

As if the strength of growth in the US was not enough of a clue or the confidence shown by the recent Zoom partnership announcement.

Now PCIP has the funding to accelerate its proven approach to growth before the repayment of UK legal costs and with it an accelerater re-rateing

[adamb1978] 12/3/2024 18:48

HI Andre

Agreed, and raising capital to capitalise on strong growth is a great thing to see.

One side benefit is that its possible that this could make the patent nonsense go away. We know that Sycurio appear to have done this in order to drive down PCIP share price and then make an offer when the share price was rock bottom...and in doing so acquire a cloud-first solution to replace their old-school legacy rubbish. Well, we all now know that PCIP is profitable, growing fast and now has plenty of cash.

So now that PCIP arent going to be ruined by the legal costs, the question for Sycurio is whether they throw more good money after bad. It wouldnt surprise me if they tried to save face with some sort of negotiated settlement in the US and save themselves another pile of legal costs over the next year. US lawyers are far from cheap!

Adam

[andre] 12/3/2024 18:26

The current share price is suppressed by the party interested in keeping PCIP back. So the current price is not reflective of the value of the business. Once the appeal is out of the way and the US case is thrown out (if there is any justice in the world) then it is back to reality. Raising money at the current price is a really good sign. And they won't be back for more because they'll be cashflow positive and off this one will go to a more reasonable valuation for a tech growth stock. I fail to see anything negative here.

[adamb1978] 12/3/2024 08:23

"approximately half of the net proceeds of the Placing will be used to fund the Company's continued expansion in the US, the Group's largest market, through targeted marketing initiatives (direct and partner), product marketing, and driving more engagement globally with the Company's key partners."

[adamb1978] 12/3/2024 08:18

Market opening up - shows the credibility of management and buy-in to the growth story here

[adamb1978] 12/3/2024 08:17

Was a little apprehensive when I saw the announcement however its only <10% of share cap and done at market price. Moreover, the US business is going gangbusters growing at 40% so being able to capitalise on that makes a lot of sense.

They wouldnt have had to do this had the legal garbage not depleted their cash, but raising money at market prices and only a small amount such that they can grow faster is logical

re the above comment, selling at 90p would have been utter nonsense

[nickelmer] 12/3/2024 08:13

I thought they would need to raise funds, trying to not sell at a discount to current price to be fair to them

[nico115] 12/3/2024 08:09

So we received a 90p bid which we rejected and now dilution at 56p ?!! You couldn't make it up !!

[this_is_me] 12/3/2024 07:46

I didn't think that they would have and need to do a placing.

[adamb1978] 01/3/2024 15:37

re the Sycurio offer, it all seems a little too convenient:

- company knows that its tech is dated and sees a competitor with modern product and growing fast
- same company knows that claiming patent infringement will trash that other companies share price, irrespective of the validity of those claims
- company begins legal action >>> share price gets hammered >> launches offer
- conclusion of legal action shows that its spurious and with little basis

A cynic would say that it seems a little too convenient to not be pre-planned...

Adam

[loglorry1] 01/3/2024 15:09

Well yes but that's all if they execute on their plan which you are assuming is 100% going to happen.

Whereas we know today Sycurio was willing to pay 90p before Sycurio lost the case in the UK.

[adamb1978] 01/3/2024 12:42

Don't really agree with that loglorry.

The bull point is the consistent growth and the CEO spoke on the call yesterday about planning to keep growing at the 20%-30% rate. The 2-3 year bull case IMO is around 200p-250p per share on the basis of doing 7p-8p in the Jun-26 year.

Given they're at the point of going profitable now, the rate of earnings growth will be far higher than the turnover growth so if you look beyond FY26 you can imagine a share price considerably higher than that, particularly when you bear in mind the size of the US market which is only a small part of the business today.

[loglorry1] 01/3/2024 08:41

By far the biggest bull point for PCIP is that Sycurio bid 90p for them. This was reported in court documents and so has a very high degree of being true. Big equity holders were approached and turned it down.

It's in the huge potential or a zero bucket for me. They spend a lot of money to sell very little so far but hopefully that will all change soon. They seem to have enough decent sized channel partners now they just need to stuff them.

[adamb1978] 29/2/2024 20:59

Also need to remember that Sycurio need to win 2 battles in order for it to hit PCIP:

1) prove that the patents shouldnt be invalidated
2) prove that PCIP infringe them

Both being decisions which a previous judge went against.

So say they have a 20% chance of winning each individually; that means they have a 4% chance of winning both.

[alun rm] 29/2/2024 13:32

The appeal is set for late May. A 6 hour hearing, with no new evidence to be heard, if I understand the process. If the previous judgement is upheld (which seems likely given the strength of the original judges comments), then investors are likely to become more interested in the underlying story. Fingers crossed the judgement comes quickly.

[nickelmer] 27/2/2024 10:14

Agreed, the court nonsense is causing a real halt to anything meaningful from larger investors

[adamb1978] 27/2/2024 10:11

Still think the shares are, in effect, suspended at the moment. Large numbers of investors, both insti and private, won't buy in with the court nonsense ongoing.

Good thing is that PCIP continues to knock the ball out of the park (25% yoy growth) so when the quasi-suspension is lifted, there should be lots of upside

[nickelmer] 27/2/2024 09:21

see 6 Feb post imho

[adamb1978] 27/2/2024 08:28

Looking at the segmental data too, it looks like US will turn profitable in the current half year period too

[adamb1978] 27/2/2024 08:13

ACV 25% ahead yoy is the main thing from these figures IMO. Continue that for the rest of the year and new ACV will be over £5m.

They also have the product launches and Zoom partnership kicking in now so could be considerably over that

[this_is_me] 27/2/2024 08:00

It looks like if it hadn't been for the patent case we would have been cashflow positive.

[zipstuck] 27/2/2024 07:20

Added £0.6m in ARR in first two months of second half. Not Bad.