Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[daddy warbucks] 23/4/2024 22:46

What benefit would a jv bring to shareholders?As others have said, we are slowly winning orders by ourselves. What would the jv partner bring to the company?It would be nice if they paid the equivalent of 50p a share for half the company, but if they are not and we also need to raise funds, then I cannot see the point in a jv.

[derek ten bag] 23/4/2024 22:24

I must admit I am getting a bit lost here. There was talk last week of a possible JV involving Adani and Esyasoft, but where does that leave the likes of Genus and Intellismart? One of the selling points that JC frequently talks about is that we are 'vendor agnostic'. Wouldn't a JV tie us to a single company and probably cut out the others. I can't see how that would be a positive way forward. Perhaps you can explain how that would be to our benefit at a time when our revenues are increasing significantly, by all accounts and we are getting orders, albeit slowly, from multiple sources.

[nick the greek 1] 23/4/2024 21:41

MC

Assuming it’s a JV that takes place (of course there are other options available here) then I would anticipate the new entity, partner would want a min of 51%? So really a sale of the Indian business, ie losing control.

Plus about a £10m cash war chest to move forward with?

So a lot of dilution.

JC will take a NE position on the new BoD.

This has been in the ether for years imo.

Let’s see.

[major courtenay] 23/4/2024 21:03

NTG, I don’t expect you to put your neck on the block, but out of interest, would you care to hazard a vague guess at the sort of dilution we could be talking about if you’re right?

Does “diluted to hell” mean losing 30% of the company? 50%?

If memory serves, we’re currently worth over £25 million, so it’s difficult to imagine losing more than 30% “if” the current share price holds, and how the company would justify a bigger loss. Surely a JV would open the door to other sources of capital? If we couldn’t get debt then, when the hell could we?

The appointment of Panmure Gordon has certainly given me pause for thought. The contract sizes I have felt pretty healthy, the rate of landing them, less so. As others have said, politics intervenes.

[stupidboypike] 23/4/2024 16:45

ntg - VERY interesting analysis and looks very plausible - thanks for sharing.

Best regards SBP

[derek ten bag] 23/4/2024 16:42

Thanks for your analysis NTG, albeit rather depressing. I must say I would be very disappointed if the company were to sanction a significant dilution. We are told that revenues will be materially ahead of market expectations and no doubt increasing going forward, much of the management and staffing etc. must, by now, be in place, so why the need for a fundraise at all. I sincerely hope that the company will manage to raise any capital required in a non-dilutive way. I would also be surprised if we don't get some positive news sooner, rather than later. I would be hoping that the SFA approach, which has worked well thus far, would be expanded and involve some of the other large players. JC did, I believe, indicate a week or two back, that he and Heather would be doing an investor presentation very soon. We could certainly do with one. I have capital in place to mitigate some dilution, but I do need to have real proof that it will be money well spent. I am hoping that we have moved beyond the 'jam tomorrow' stage of our development. We shall see, but your analysis is much appreciated.

[nick the greek 1] 23/4/2024 15:49

My “guess” is now strongly that there is a large JV together with a likely placing being put together in the background.

The timing of this is very important for the company and has been planned around the “lull” in activity as of the election.

I would agree that the elections possibly won’t affect existing business but personally I think it unlikely that any large new orders will be granted by the AMISPS until after June 4th.

Then it will happen quickly assuming Modi gets in.

So I guess that the “inflection point” for a JV is now and the company are currently putting it together which is why Panmure have been brought in.

Likely early as of Crux’s sale of a lot of stock which has unfortunately, with no negative reason to do with the company, put a spanner in the works for the JV placing price.

It seems to me that Panmure are now still leading the offer and drip feeding stock out (likely more of Crux’s or possibly their own which they’ve taken on risk from Crux) and the price has become stable around the bottom of a trend at 8.5p.

I think they were hoping to get this away at the top of a trend ie 12 - 13p but Crux have scuppered this and that’s why Panmure have been announced early to “hold up the stock” as it was likely going out of range to 5p because of Crux’s forced sale and no real buyers as of the black out of news because of the elections and a possible JV meaning a near news black out too.

Consequently my guess is that they will announce a JV at or around 8p or 9p and existing shareholders will be diluted to hell.

Then the elections will allow the orders to proceed, we will be partnered financially to a large player and the reason why most here have been invested for so long will finally come to fruition.

Unfortunately that will be with very heavy dilution.

No doubt some will think that’s absolutely fine.

Let’s see what happens over the next 3 - 6 months at the good old ship CyanConnode!

[hamidahamida] 23/4/2024 12:43

Drifting bcz of upcoming Placing Confetti party soon

[derek ten bag] 23/4/2024 10:04

Four trades so far this morning. listed as sells. Is that the case or is the price just drifting down on lack of news?

[daddy warbucks] 23/4/2024 09:33

I wonder what the average volume weighted average is for Cyan?If we are to take on a partner, - keeping the share price at a stable level for calculating the overall price for a percentage of the company would help.

[johnwall] 22/4/2024 14:36

Apologies if this info has been posted here before -



"Currently, tenders for 19 crore smart meters are in various stages of progress. This massive scale indicates the significant strides being taken towards #digitalising India's power distribution sector and promoting energy efficiency.

K-Xchange, India’s only smart metering newsletter, by #IntelliSmart gives you a snapshot of the country-wide tender status.

Grab the edition now to find out about:
💡Tenders under evaluation
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💡L1/LoA under process
💡Ongoing tenders

Subscribe K-Xchange from here: hxxps://intellismartinfra.in/resource-centre/k-xchange… "

[derek ten bag] 19/4/2024 17:33

Yes, thanks for that Multi. That clears things up for me and, from what I've read, it does sound pretty spot on. I suspect we may also deliver the HES as well. For me, after quite an eventful week, even though the share price doesn't reflect it, the most significant thing, apart from the announcement that we are setting up an entity to cover the MENA area, is JC's 'like' of the Adani note on LinkedIn. It says to the faithful, 'this stuff is highly relevant to us'. Not in any way market sensitive, but certainly reinforces the company we are now keeping, as does the appointment of Panmure Gordon as joint broker. If there is no big news on Monday (don't weekends get in the way of things?) I may be tempted into another little top-up. Once this baby starts moving it will move quickly. In my humble opinion, of course. DYOR, as they say, and GLA.

[stupidboypike] 19/4/2024 14:33

mb, much appreciated. All very positive in my view. Best regards SBP

[multibagger] 19/4/2024 13:53

Hi DTB:)

In that hypothetical scenario, I reckon

Adani Power/Energy/Enterprises will be the Lead Bidder AMISP and bankroll the SPV after winning the contract

Esyasoft will supply the meters and MDMS and possibly HES

Cyan will supply the communication part : supply RF Mesh/Hybrid RF Cellular/NB-IoT and possibly HES

We could be getting ahead of ourselves, but will be reassured that we are ahead of time and before the herd arrives !

[derek ten bag] 19/4/2024 13:22

If there was a hook-up between Adani, Esyasoft and CC, what part of the product would we be providing? Perhaps a silly question but I am losing track of who does what here. Who does the meters; who does the connectivity (presumably CC). What does Esyasoft provide at the moment? Are we getting ahead of ourselves? JC's linked in 'like' suggests not, but who knows? Not me, that's for sure.

[multibagger] 19/4/2024 12:00

Hi SBP and DTB :)

Ajoy Rajani was a senior VP in Adani group some years ago and some connections may still be current. I don't think we have done any contracts with them as yet, but probably in RDSS bids with them as AMISPs ongoing.

In the current context, our re-building of bridges with Adani could have possibly come about by Esyasoft as Esyasoft and Adani have formed a JV. We have virtually carried out every contract with Esyasoft in India, UAE and Nigeria.

EESL is a legacy provider who was nominated for about 10m smart meters in the infancy of the smart meter rollout but faced huge operational and reliability issues. The brand lost its credibility in my view and the re-branding and new funding and partners led to the development of Intellismart.

[derek ten bag] 19/4/2024 11:36

Good question SBP, I was about to ask that myself. I don't actually recall any orders from Adani, but I could be wrong.
Could somebody also explain where EESL fit into the picture? Does EESL still exist?

[stupidboypike] 19/4/2024 11:27

mb, Can you remind us of where our relationship with Adnai is at? Sorry being a bit lazy, if you don't have the answer to hand I'll go and research.

Best regards
SBP

[multibagger] 19/4/2024 08:24

Adani and (the Ambanis) have India virtually sown up economically....so riding on their coat tails would be a very shrewd strategy for someone like us and will open doors magically ! They are blessed by the Govt to turn the Modi's dream in to reality it would appear :)

It is probable that Adani and Intellismart will take a commanding market share of the RDSS contracts in India in the fullness of time IMHO.

[nilli] 19/4/2024 08:01

Yes, apologies, it was liked.

[multibagger] 19/4/2024 07:11

Many thanks Nilli for sharing the same...more grist to the mill !

Why oh why would JC post about Adani Energy Q4 FY24 highlights ????

Edit: He seems to have "liked" it ,not posted it per se....but nevertheless still intriguing :)

[nilli] 19/4/2024 06:54

Morning Multi and all.
JC posted this on LinkedIn

Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. 4th Quarter FY24 Operational highlights.

• Robust system availability of 99.6% in Q4FY24.
• Added 174 ckms to operational network with total network at 20,509 ckms.
• Fully operationalized Khavada Bhuj line.
• Received LOA for additional 17 lakh smart meters from MSEDCL with a revenue potential Rs 2,100 crore.
• The total smart metering pipeline at 22.8 mn across nine projects with contract value of Rs 27,200 crore.
• Distribution loss remains low at 5.09%; Maintained supply reliability of more than 99.9%.
• Sold 2,226 million units of power, up 5.98% YoY.
• Share of RE in Mumbai circle at 35%, and on track to achieve 60% by FY27. Anil Sardana Kandarp Patel #adani #energy #powerdistribution #discoms #smartmeters #amisp #rdss

[multibagger] 19/4/2024 06:38

Good morning DTB and all :)

All speculation and hypothesising on my part as I am trying to piece together a jigsaw without a reference picture ! It's a bit like fossil hunting and finding a fossil and trying then trying to work out from that what the dinosaur would have looked like !

I could be totally off the mark to be honest, but time will tell. I see it as hugely positive. War chests are needed to land and reel in big contracts and an appointment of a Joint Broker could sometimes signal that, but not always. M&A are another reason.

On the other hand, even if we get game changing news, the UK market is moribund at the moment like what we saw a few days ago on Tuesday, 16th April - normally that kind of news would have pushed up by 3p+ !

I am a patient long term holder so pretty sanguine about things I cannot control or influence.

Anyway, good luck all :)

[derek ten bag] 18/4/2024 21:02

Fantastic reply Multi and I am sure I speak for most of the others when I thank you for your very clear assessment of our current position. This does have the feel of a defining moment for CyanConnode of the type that doesn't come to many small companies. Let's hope that your assessment is accurate and we are on the cusp of real game-changing news.

[multibagger] 18/4/2024 19:55

Hi Bskiny1 and DTB:)

Re share price being held back - possibly some overhang from CRUX sale ? Markets are nervous about the Middle East no doubt.

1. With appt of a Joint Broker, a large corporate event is likely to be in the offing in the next 4-6 months. I personally think that it could an IPO of our Indian 100% owned subsidiary with CYAN still retaining the majority/controlling stake once we have an even better order pipeline in India and/or MENA. Speculation on my part no doubt, but too many strategic moves and all closely temporally connected to be a mere coincidence !

2. Could Adani+Esyasoft JV take us into their fold fully ?

3. Esyasoft do MDMS/HES mainly and now have a meter manufacturing unit but don't have their own a Comms solution. Adani have the financial might, political influence and have won about 24.089 million RDSS smart meter contracts so far. So we could become a part of a AMISP bidder with all the normally subcontracted contracts in house for India. (Not too dissimilar to where Genus seem to be at).

4. Al Fanar + Esyasoft + CYAN aggressively go after MENA contracts and office opening in UAE will make "wasta" easier.

Whatever is happening now is likely to be a lot bigger than what has gone before. Panmure willing to play joint fiddle with Zeus is in itself interesting - rather than displacing the incumbent.

Good luck all !