Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[maxim1999] 20/4/2024 10:16

Is the Shareholder meeting worth attending? Historically it's been a list of apologising for past failures and making promises for the future which never get delivered on. Might this meeting be different and one might actually get some benefit ?

[xclusive2] 19/4/2024 17:50

Yep, not ideal but it was being talked up and the market tipsters were helping it along, positioning that 4.5p+ was in sight but the latest news ie both 142 not performing as it was historically, together with WS news, has obviously wobbled PIs. I also suspect that hot money was in and has/is exited/exiting as the run has dissipated again. You can also add the BNG shallows deal, could be good, bad or indifferent but it's an unknown. Then there's the current geo-political climate that is probably pushing people to cash. I did expect the pullback to the early 3s but not to this level. Also very odd retrace over the last few days as the trading was pretty even sells/buys ? Also today's action was largely BedNIsa and yet another drop. Need to get this WS out of the way and I fully expect to see it bounce again but hopefully this time with those foundations we need !!

[onsideman] 19/4/2024 16:54

What a horrible 2 weeks here 🫣

[xclusive2] 19/4/2024 14:22

And the 2.875 trades are buys so I suspect that there is a chunky sell in the background.

[xclusive2] 19/4/2024 13:56

3 of them are mine AT LAST

[xclusive2] 19/4/2024 13:28

BEDNISAs NOT SALES

[dipla] 19/4/2024 13:27

Why we seeing so many sells today?

[xclusive2] 19/4/2024 12:38

One more BNIsa to finally conclude today and all stock locked in ready for next instalment of Caspian. Been a 10 day processing time, much longer than normal and I've had 3 sitting there waiting to transact. The delay has worked in my favour as I'm sure it has done for many who want to book as many as they can with their allowances.Q2 is going to be busy if they stick to their plans as communicated. I know cash has been tight but hopefully that changes with possible inflow from additional prod, poss export prices, CE charter or BNG shallows sale. Lots of possible news, good bad or indifferent, let's hope it's the former :)

[xclusive2] 19/4/2024 09:48

Much that we all want to see the share price at 50p (:, some clouds have silver linings especially if your in BNIsa mode and can lock in CGT losses and max out allowances. All we need to happen now is to see some REALLY positive news post the WS deal. Investors need to keep track of CE developments as we're probably only a couple of months from kick off at Abay block so hopefully we see an update soon. The other news as listed will probably follow in May and we'll start to see the buying cycle start again but hopefully the upcoming news takes us out of this trading range and into double figures. Long overdue the great news needed to strengthen the foundations and NAV (:

[bluemango] 18/4/2024 16:49

Thanks Smarty

Nothing to add to that, other than 'agreed' 👍

[xclusive2] 18/4/2024 16:17

The timing of the WS acquisition was poorly timed from a PI perspective but not for the CP/WCP as they are maxing out their allocation. If they really wanted to milk it, they could've done it earlier when share price was in the 2s. They released the ooss shallows sale news as significantly higher than carry value, they could've held that back and the 142/SY positive (ish) news and ensured that the share price was depressed and strike price lower.I think the share price will wallow down here until the WS deal is voted through but then PIs will get interested again as they look forward to the Q2 news update due ie Shallow sale Shallow drilling 803 A5 B8 Caspian ExplorerAll of the above are likely this quarter and all are material. 803 will only be progress reports and we won't know if it's commercial until early Q3 but the rest could be conclusive this qtr although I suspect we wait a little longer on B8 as historically licence renewal approval has taken some time but who knows. If there is a BNG shallows sale then what is the 'significant' value ? share price could fly if it's a great deal but could retrace if it reduces NAV. A5 is the most material news and side-track could be completed this quarter if they commence drilling and that's the most important result if successful as it would catapult the share price Yes, they have to do 90 day flow test but I suspect that they'll flow it for a period before testing.Theories re timing of the WS news ? Doing it now as there's likely to be good news in the near term which will limit the dilution (trough feed). They're continuing to stack up the share count so what are they doing this ? Surely it's because they know share price is going to rise ? They're Director bonus scheme is linked to m/cap, more shares in issue will increase m/cap if good news lands and the hype kicks in so they could exercise the bonus incentive ? Risks ? there are plenty when investing in Kstan and being majority owned by a Kazakh CP/WCP but those who have been invested here for years know the risks and have weathered many storms and are still here. They are possibly going to generate a large sum of money if the sell shallows and receive the CE cash, that could be hugely positive or negative dependant on values and what they do with the cash. I believe they're rushing WS through before releasing positive news and we're riding on the Oraziman clan's coat tails. Pure speculation but we've not got too long to find out.

[maxim1999] 18/4/2024 13:45

Not really a surprise but it's a shame to see the shares trading sub 3p. The company needs to cement a valuation much higher so that in the absence of any news we don't always trade back down to the lows. Optically with all the news in the pipeline I am confident much better prices are a distinct possibility. May will be a big month for us

[timberwolf3] 16/4/2024 17:34

Thank you Spangle once again for your knowledgeable interpretation of the information we have been supplied. you would think at the very least the seller would provide up to date 3D data to substantiate his lofty asking price.

[xclusive2] 16/4/2024 11:00

Thanks for your input Spangle, interesting. I suspect many shareholders are concerned re the latest proposed deal at West Shalva. Is it another 3AB deal wherby we suffered dilution and no ROI ? On the face of it it does look like another sweetheart deal but won't know until it's drilled. I'm not unhappy with their acquisition strategy but am unhappy with the structure of this deal. They could structure it completely differently without any immediate dilution apart from drilling commitments. Our Bolthazan is going to receive 200m shares or should I say the KO clan is and it could be a repeat of 3AB, there are no guarantees. Surely they should be waiting to see the outcomes from BNG shallows sale, CE deal and current drilling ? if positive then the share price will increase and that's the time to do the deal as it would be far less dilutive. The CP/WCP would be winning as the share price could be back to double figures but no, they're doing it now and it's another feed at the trough. They could've waited as the asset is available so why do it now ? I suspect that the BNG shallows deal is closer than we think, maybe B8 news too and the CE cash deal confirmation. I think they're rushing it through to max out their shareholding pre releasing positive news and to have prospective acreage at WS that COULD replace MJF.One thing I do know, they're going all in with building their shareholding so surely there has to be good news and an exit at some juncture. Could be the biggest bargain on AIM or the Casper saga will drag on, which is it ? we'll know very soon imo.

[konil] 15/4/2024 09:40

spangle, thanks, most illuminating. when i read it i didn't know how to interpret it, a knowledgeable eye makes all the difference!

i fear we will not hear anything about all the various operational items supposedly currently underway now (unless they are failures), until the ws asset has been absorbed into casp. at a guess that means no good news (if there is any) until around may at best.

[spangle93] 15/4/2024 09:00

I downloaded the Gaffney Cline summary and had a browse through it over the weekend. It's worth a look for balance, as it is factual, independent, short, and contains lots of information to complement the RNS

I'd love to say that it demonstrated why the deal is such a no-brainer, but IMHO, it doesn't conclude that. The key things are

1. there is only one potential structure on the licence, so it's that or nothing

2. the Jurassic target has low structural relief, meaning it's going to have a wide U1-U3 range, because it is hard to image clearly without depth ambiguity on the "moderate to poor quality" 3D seismic

3. the area is a proven hydrocarbon province, and the Jurassic is the primary target.

4. The Jurassic has a prize similar to MJF - about 10 MMbbl in the U1 case, and 17 MMbbl in the 2U (mid) case.

5. There's a slight disconnect between the views of the directors and those of G-C regarding the top of the Jurassic reservoir. In the RNS it states "the West Shalva reservoir is higher than at Shalva and considered by the Directors to have better sealing". However, Shalva is reportedly on production, whereas for West Shalva, G-C say given the low amplitude of the trap at the Middle Jurassic at West Shalva and the presence of faults in the area, top and lateral seal is not a given. So while they consider the reservoir quality and source are proven, they lower the overall CoS to 54%

6. The Triassic has delivered oil in well tests elsewhere in the Zhetybay Steppe, but is rarely on production (it's also much deeper: 2900m vs 1300m), so reservoir quality is the key issue. Accordingly the Triassic CoS quoted by Gaffney Cline is 23%. You wouldn't buy in for this.


So, I guess in summary you could say that we'd have to pay $5MM up front, and $3MM for a well, to test one structure that's independently assessed to contain a mid case of 17 MMbbl, with a coin toss chance of success.

I don't think that was how WH Ireland described it to their readers ;-)

Maybe it's still an attractive proposition as a farm in, or if the deal reflected in a different way the risk to CASP?

[le mailot jaune] 12/4/2024 20:47

That camel had previous, was on his way to oilholics anonymous

[konil] 12/4/2024 08:55

thanks spangle.
i guess we'll know the reality once they start working on it.

[spangle93] 11/4/2024 18:48

Looks like further reading about the proposed transaction has been added today to the CASP website

[bluemango] 11/4/2024 17:04

dipla.

Four operational updates since October, so they're fairly regular recently.

At the outside, annual report is due in next 10 weeks (around end June)

[dipla] 11/4/2024 07:48

When we get an update on the deeps next

[maxim1999] 10/4/2024 16:21

Good point. Either not releasing good news or releasing any sort of usual update with the standard family bale out or (lack of) operational update.

[konil] 10/4/2024 15:34

yeah read that in rns's many times over the years only to be followed by an rns some time later with excuses why it could not be progressed, or worse just re-stating the same objective as if for the first time, or even worse giving contradictory info.

re. block8 licence approval, i wonder what the extended hold up is? easy to blame the 3rd party (kaz authorities), maybe that's correct or maybe casp are not meeting the required conditions or arguing about terms?

re 802, how long are they going to be "seeking partners to jointly exploit" ?

re. 803 and a5, are you saying they have been actively working on these? let's hope you are correct. just wonder why its taken this long to get back to a5.

[konil] 10/4/2024 15:15

by not releasing positive news.

[maxim1999] 10/4/2024 13:03

I am not sure the company has a mechanism to dictate the share price. How could they keep the share price depressed to stop it running away from the 4 p strike? Moving on is there any point in going to the shareholder meeting? Whatever the strategy they deliver on the day won't be impacted by a few shareholders turning up and asking questions on it. My experience is the meetings are a complete waste of time. I met KO at a meeting where they mapped out an impressive 12 month plan of acquisition, testing , exploration, increased forecast production etc. He even showed a video on his phone of a flared well. That's was 7 years ago and production and share price are little changed.