Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 14:57

Moditope if it works with CPI is proving that its the vaccine and not the CPi that's induced a response

That requires numbers treated so that a comparison can be made against whats expected from Checkpoint alone exactly the same is Scib1 ...

this is why its difficult to give information early when used in combination you need all the patients scanned whats interesting from Macmillan the patient with renal had a slow start with only 1 mm reductions and in early posts she thought modi1 was not working ---- then it kicked in as per March post

it maybe we need 6 month of data to achieve conclusive evidence

the resected patients will give us a better idea just how well the t cells are working with Pd-1 and without also you can then compare that to blood work

as a monotherapy its easy

[markingtime] 22/4/2024 14:23

The length of Bermuda's list underscores the point about timeliness of delivery on these points. The plain fact is that if, say, 70-80% of that list can be delivered to expectations, and announced in 2024, the share price will be much higher.

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 14:20

have you actually bought shares now Supernumeray ?

[supernumerary] 22/4/2024 12:40

B - thanks, much appreciated. Nothing I wasn't aware of, but good to see them together. Funny how the fortunes of SCIB1 have varied over the years.

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 11:35

Based on what Nigel ?

"reality may be closer to a few hundred percent" is that a compound rate ?

[nigelpm] 22/4/2024 11:08

Great list Bermuda - thanks for posting that.

Explains why many of us are invested here. Excellent opportunities for returns even if the reality may be closer to a few hundred percent as opposed to 10x+

[bermudashorts] 22/4/2024 11:05

marcus,

I had left out Moditope and Avidimab. If we get any significant news from either then that's a bonus.

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 10:56

Moditope is a new class of therapeutics



Within the tumor microenvironment, cancer cells have co-opted inhibitory ligands and their receptors that regulate T cell effector function in order to enhance tumor tolerance and evade eradication by the immune system. In recent years, pharmacological modulators of these pathways, known as immune checkpoint therapies, particularly in the form of monoclonal antibodies against PD-1 and CTLA-4, have been intensely researched and deployed as novel immunotherapy agents to treat cancers. Given the early success of immune checkpoint therapies, creating immunotherapies targeting other co-inhibitory and co-stimulatory receptors and their ligands in order to activate anti-tumor immune responses appears to be a compelling therapeutic strategy.

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 10:53

Thats correct Mia ... sometime folks forget this is a data collection trial om how to get the best use out of Moditope

if you had to draw a Plan of the design ........ of a checkpoint enhanced trial

[marcusl2] 22/4/2024 10:44

Quite exciting Bermuda. Also looking forward to;

MHRA clearance plus first patient dosed with Modi-1 plus doublet in RCC

Avidimab deal

Modi-1 plus CPI data.

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 10:41

Bermuda

13) First patient dosed in phase II/III trial

would that be exactly the same criteria as the current cohort of Iscib1 patients ?

[bermudashorts] 22/4/2024 10:37

Super,

Here are some items of potential news. Some are obviously much more important than others but in terms of building the flow of positive news could still contribute:-

1) Recriutment to SCIB1 cohort of current trial complete and last patient dosed

2) Confirmation that the 70% threshold has been met and therefore this arm of the trial is a success. If the ORR is maintained at 85% then that would be fantastic but I hope expectations won't be raised too high - the 70% is enough.

3) Presentation of these results at ASCO (would also be good to see participation at ESMO too)

4) Progress updates from the iSCIB1+ cohort

5) Recruitment complete for iSCIB1+

6) Top line results for iSCIB1+

7) Confirmation that pre IND meetings with the FDA have taken place and were successful thereby giving a clear development pathway forwards for SCIB1/iSCIB1

8) Clearance of IND and MHRA approval for the phase II/II SCIB1 trial

9) Details of the investigators for the phase II/III - particularly if Scancell have managed to secure any big US names

10) Confirmation that Genmab intend to take Scancell's mAb into the clinic and clearance of the IND. This should trigger a milestone but much more importantly it validates the Glymab platform for any others who may be evaluating other mAbs

11) Further Glymab deals

12) Addition of new mAbs

13) First patient dosed in phase II/III trial

I'll stop there. As I said earlier, the big unknown is what happens re. the Redmile CLNs and whether they can get a decent funding away. Certainly it will be easier if they manage to deliver on the above.

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 10:20

Ruck Rovers missing Maths ,................

scancell has spent approx 80million of shareholder funds

so far that may yield $600m from Genmab and RR ploughs it back in ....

that works out at 7.5 x cost and we know that figure will be way higher with SCIB1 deals etc

giving scancell the cash to invest in Research then should achieve product worth

7.5 x $600 ..... paid as a dividend ? or should we reinvest again ?





RuckRover

Posts: 5,364

Price: 9.60

No Opinion

RE: A reminder from Inanaco 7839 . . .Today 08:31
I'm afraid Paul is quite right. If you pump $600m dollars into a company it is only worth that amount on the company valuation so long as you don't spend any of it. This can't be the case with Scancell who have far greater cash needs than they have. $600m is a drop in the ocean.

The only time revenue has a multiplier as far as valuation goes, is where that revenue stream is forecast to be maintained year on year. This Genmab is a one off apart from a single digit royalty. Maybe this will be worth $600 per year eventually.

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 10:10

paulBrains is Nigel .... so obvious

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 10:08

Supernumerary

The cumulative effect

11 of 13 patients ORR = 90% probability that 27 of 43 ORR achieves endpoint

if 36 of 43 achieves ORR than that proves the 90% probability was correct

you now have a model that has two sides .... like 1+1 = 2

if you now want to increase that to 200 tests of the maths

you can list them

1+1=2
1+1=2
1+1=2

to see if one of them changes

opps !! ... they don't

Newtons law of Gravity was nearly right it will predict the moon perfectly big numbers distance wise .... compared to the apple ...

but the maths are identical ........

to go super accurate you use Einsteins equations but in this instance No need

[nigelpm] 22/4/2024 09:57

The worst thing is people are blindly following inanaco judging by posts over on LSE.

[supernumerary] 22/4/2024 09:55

Bermuda - 'the cumulative effect should bring about a change in sentiment and current valuation. Let me know if you want me to list them.'

Yes, please :¬)

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 09:49

Bermuda

It was Scancell giving the 90%

Not Me !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

again you have been unable to show why it's wrong

getting all mouthy like you are with threats of filter just shows your level of intelligence is not as high as you think and you are unable to support posts that you have made

I can stand by my posts .... you cannot

[bermudashorts] 22/4/2024 09:44

inanaco

From your 7899:-

''so the probability of success in further trials will always be higher than the ORR rate achieved so far'

This will be my last post to you and then I'll revert to the filter. Sometimes it's best to stop digging. This statement from you shows a complete and utter lack of understanding of the clinical trial process. Moreover it's highly misleading to those who follow you blindly and you should delete it immediately. If you seriously believe it, no wonder you think there's no risk.

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 09:37

Marking Time ....... technicalities that is like trying to argue that Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes should be beating a Red Bull .... its very easy to skirt around the outside and post an obvious statement like "timely delivery of expected value inflection" but drilling into the data reveals huge technical hurdles that have to be overcome, that time and money may not fix

in scancells case it did ...

so Ichor issue solved
Patent solved

snapvax solved the Modi issues

and that delay coupled with the pandemic gave us a "Free" upgrade to ISCIB1 with a test of the delivery system

but if like Bermuda you looked at historical data only ... you would have bet on Mercedes

you would have lost

[markingtime] 22/4/2024 09:26

Bermuda correctly points to the need for timely delivery of expected value inflection point and notes this hasn't been the case. Indeed it hasn't, prior to Redmile.I'd like to think the set of appointments made by the company since the start of 2023 fully recognise that. And clearly the company is leaving no stone unturned to get the science "out there" during conference season.The outcome will be interesting - and possibly transformational for sentiment.

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 09:04

i will explain your problem

36 of 43 achieves 85% ORR

we only need 70%

so the probability of success in further trials will always be higher than the ORR rate achieved so far


I don't think maths is Bermuda's strong point

[nigelpm] 22/4/2024 09:02

That's thought process on valuation FWIW.

[inanaco] 22/4/2024 08:59

pleased to see your thought process is aligned Nigel Perhaps you can answer questions on behalf of Bermuda then

repeated post

inanaco21 Apr '24 - 10:18 - 7887 of 7896 Edit
0 0 0
tell you what ... Bermuda

"""Similarly it's utter nonsense to suggest that any phase II/III trial (especially the first randomised study for the drug in question)could have a probability of success of 90% at outset.""" (Bermuda)

if we achieve 36 from 43 .....assume that is Iscib1

what is the probability using 200 patients

you say its not 90%

what is it ?

ATB

[nigelpm] 22/4/2024 08:28

Thanks Bermuda. We are very closely aligned in thought process.