Mortgage Advice Bureau (... Share Discussion Threads

[chapchip] 12/12/2023 16:19

decent run since October up 50%

[74tom] 07/7/2023 11:53

Last update on 24th May said;

"MAB's performance, despite challenging market conditions, remains in line with the Board's expectations with further improvement expected in the second-half of the year."

If further improvement was expected to remain in line with market expectations, then given the developments in the last 10 weeks I'd say a profit warning is becoming increasingly likely here. Worth noting that this also still trading at ~16x FY23 forecast EPS of 34p which looks unsustainable in the current market.

[johnrxx99] 11/5/2023 10:54

On the up.

[74tom] 23/2/2023 11:24

Not so happy now though as that gap has just filled.

Probably due to articles like this encouraging shorters to return;



And also poor data like this

"Residential property transactions came to 77,390 in January on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, says HMRC.

This means transactions were 7% lower on an annual basis and, compared to December 2022, marks a 27% drop off.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, HMRC calculates there were 96,650 residential transactions in the first month of 2023 – an 11% annual drop and a monthly fall of 3%."

A frozen market would be a disaster for MAB1 as revenues would go into reverse and advisor numbers being significantly reduced. Will it happen?

[chapchip] 01/2/2023 16:09

£5.50 to £6.80...mr market seems to be happy

[74tom] 31/1/2023 09:17

What's everyone's take on the Fluent Money numbers disclosed today?

£22m contribution in the 2022 accounts, the acquisition completed on 12th July but the deal was announced on 28th March, so it's not immediately clear what period this relates to. However, this is what they said in the acquisition announcement last March;

"In the year to Mar-22E2, Fluent is expected to generate £38.5m revenue (+45% yoy) and adjusted EBITDA3 of £4.2m (+118% yoy)"

The footnote to this comment then says;

"2 Current accounting reference date of 31 March for Project Finland Topco Limited will be changed to 31 December post completion. In the financial year ending 2022 outturn based on 11 months actuals"


The comment regarding 11 months actuals suggests they agreed to include the financial performance of the last 2 months of FM's 2022 financial year which ended 31/03/22 (companies house), presumably because this reflected the date at which the acquisition was agreed in principal, but legals weren't signed off?

If my understanding of this is correct then today's figure of £22m is for 11 months contribution, which based on MAB1's 75% equity ownership suggests the 2022 outturn was £22m / 11 * 12 / 0.75 = £32m, significantly below the £38.5m forecast at the time of acquisition...

That would certainly make sense given the disastrous events of Q4.

Today's update seems to want readers to think that £22m has been recognised for FM performance since 12th July, which as per the extracts above is patently not the case... if so, it's pretty poor form IMO.

[its the oxman] 25/1/2023 10:29

Big falls here but so much bad news in the price now, and probably no meaningful recovery until anticipation interest cycle has turned. Hoping that can't be too far away now.

[chapchip] 05/12/2022 08:35

yes in light of recent events the £72m paid will possibly be slower to pay returns

the owners in fluent had lucky timing

[rndm355] 04/12/2022 00:52

thoughts on the profit warning on YouTube:



summary: still like the company, dislike the acquisition.

[sbb1x] 02/12/2022 16:26

Still creeping higher with nice buys still coming in, be in tge 600s next week. Enjoy your weekend.

[chapchip] 02/12/2022 09:44

yes i think you are right

missed the boat yesterday first thing at 440p

[sbb1x] 02/12/2022 09:40

Reckon this goes back to 720s

[investoroilandgas] 01/12/2022 11:18

Excellent post 74tom, I'm with you on this one, wait & see.
I worked in the UK mortgage market for nearly 30 years, BBR hit 15% early 90's.
It will be interesting to see how MAB navigates the headwinds.

[sbb1x] 01/12/2022 11:00

Slowly movung higher

[74tom] 01/12/2022 10:29

Still watching here, the problem I have is that they dropped £72m on Fluent Money last March which wiped out their cash balance + put them in a net debt position.

Unrestricted Cash at 30/06 was £57.4m, the £72.7m for Fluent went out in July leaving them in a net debt position of £15.3m. The interim dividend of 13.4p was paid in November at a cost of £7.4m and you'd assume that this would wipe out most of the FCF in H2 (H1 FCF was £10.9m).

In the current environment I'm not a fan of any company that has recently moved into a net debt position and is paying a material dividend - it simply doesn't make sense.

Will wait until the next results to see how they are looking financially, given the outlook statement and prospect of flat YoY performance I don't see this moving materially higher anytime soon.

[chapchip] 01/12/2022 09:51

yes, although MAB probably better to weather it than most

very well run, well placed to pick up AR's that are currently DA, so numbers could increase a bit.

some of the lesser performing brokers will leave as no business incoming, the bigger firms with back books will still be ok.

if you are an adviser baased in an estate agency or one that has only set up in last few years will struggle for next 12-18 months i suspect

[investoroilandgas] 01/12/2022 09:41

"The trend is your friend", tough times ahead in the UK property / mortgage markets imo.
One for the watchlist.

[chapchip] 01/12/2022 09:32

it had bounced back up....but todays fall is purely in relation to the trading Update

probably overly cautious, but demand has fallen off a cliff.

of i was employed in estate agency environment right now i would be very concerned......

£2.8m write off for bad investment doesnt help

[kemche] 01/12/2022 09:26

Not far enough.

[chapchip] 27/10/2022 11:55

probably fell too far

[miss womble] 27/10/2022 10:58

What’s going on?

[74tom] 10/10/2022 14:43

I mean the valuation was outrageous, at £14 on a forecast 2022 EPS of 42.1p it was trading on a PE of 33x.

I note in their recent interims they reported a 14p EPS for the half to 30/06, given current events in the mortgage market I'd be very surprised if they even match this in H2, so you're looking at 28p for the full year.

So at the current 540p it's still trading at a minimum of 20x earnings. That to me is still far too rich if we are facing a prolonged market slow down.

I'd say there could still be at least 50% downside from here before MAB1 could be considered fair value.