Cdialogues Share Discussion Threads

[biggest bill] 27/5/2016 16:40

"It has become clear to the Board that the market conditions for winning new contracts have and continue to change. In particular, the profit margin that can be achieved by CDialogues on new business opportunities is currently at a level which makes little commercial or financial sense to pursue. As a result, the Company is unlikely to engage in any new contracts until market conditions change".

The trading update shows that the business model is broken.

[malreid] 19/4/2016 21:11

JUst discovered this and just reminded me of GLOBO!!!

[losos] 13/4/2016 18:15

Biggest Bill - Agree.
From the 'About CDialogues' note at the end of the RNS:-
"utilizing advanced Data analytics techniques combined with Linguistic engineering marketing"
Scares the hell out of me ha ha.

[biggest bill] 29/3/2016 14:58

The trading update is disastrous. The company made no profit at all in the second half of 2015 and trading has weakened since. If the South American contract is cancelled, this is very bad news indeed.

I have sold out completely this morning. The only thing holding up the shares is the cash pile but if the company is trading at a loss, the cash will steadily shrink.

[drdre] 25/1/2016 08:09

CDialogues plc (AIM: CDOG), the provider of mobile marketing solutions to Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), provides a trading update for the 12 months ended 31 December 2015.

Further to the announcements made on 17 November 2015 and 18 September 2015, CDialogues reports that revenues for the full year are expected to be approximately EUR8.8 million (2014: EUR9.9 million). During 2015, CDialogues operated mobile marketing projects in six countries across the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

EBITDA for the period is expected to be approximately EUR2.0 million (2014: EUR2.9 million). The EBITDA margin decreased due to lower revenue during the second half of 2015 and the continued investment in business and product development.

Free Cash Flow for the year exceeded EUR1.4 million (2014: EUR1.2 million) further enhancing the Company's cash position to EUR3.6 million as of 31 December 2015 (31.12.2014: EUR2.4 million). The Group therefore maintains a strong balance sheet to fund future growth.

Outlook

Subscription-based recurring revenues, which provide greater scalability and visibility for the business, accounted for more than 75% of the total revenues during 2015 as a whole and therefore provide the Company with a strong basis for the current year.

Furthermore, the Company has identified a pipeline of potential new projects, a number of which are currently undergoing preparations for launch in the coming months. The Board therefore believes that CDialogues should benefit from these during 2016, as the Company adds new capabilities to its product suite and widens its customer footprint.

-- Free cashflow up to 1.4m euros and cash at 3.6m euros. Outlook statement looks upbeat too. Trashed down from £3 to 60p, there is very decent upside potential from here?

[chadders] 14/1/2016 13:59

Good shout DrDre

[drdre] 14/1/2016 12:32

There's the holdings RNS. Hopefully a change in direction from hereonin?

[drmaccers] 11/1/2016 17:46

Or just the mms have all those shares from the big sales

[drmaccers] 11/1/2016 12:09

The 212k was city investors entire holding so they are out and RNS awaited. There is still an overhang of about £20k

[biggest bill] 06/1/2016 11:26

That 75000 block of shares might have come from City Financial Investment Company. If so, this would have taken their holding below 3% and there should be an rns soon announcing this.

[tomboyb] 05/1/2016 14:08

Looks like a very reasonable punt -

Small climb back at 7.5k offered at 70p -

[biggest bill] 05/1/2016 13:57

It looks as if the share price fall is entirely due to the 75000 sale. The steady buying since the sale has already mopped up half of the shares.

[drdre] 05/1/2016 13:50

I have bought another small tranche as they are nearly at cash value (£3.5m cap vs £2.6m cash?). Any fall is never welcome but I think it's overdone? Time will tell, as usual. GL all.

[biggest bill] 05/1/2016 13:44

A late trade has appeared; somebody sold 75000 shares at 45p this morning.

[biggest bill] 05/1/2016 11:25

Does anybody know why the share price has fallen today? Buys appear to outnumber sells by 10 to 1.

[biggest bill] 08/12/2015 10:14

If the share price stays at this level for much longer, I wouldn't be surprised at a cheeky buyout offer by the management at about 150p.

[moathunter] 18/11/2015 12:13

I bought CDOG at 85p today and here's some thoughts as to why the company appears cheap.

CDOG Market Cap £5.5m (£15m a few months ago).
Net Cash £2.6m.
P/E c.2.5
P/S 0.8.
88% director ownership, giving very little share float on the AIM and so the slightest flicker of good news and it's sky rocketing, much like Mobile Stream's (MOS) situation.
£4.3m NAV.
£3.5m net current asset value (current assets minus all liabilities).
26% operating profit margin. 30%+ RoIC.
No debt.

Reason for the recent fall is a profit downgrade. With such limited float, it's very oversold.

Can easily conservatively generate £0.7m free cash flow (Op. profit + depreciation minus capex and change in working capital). Assume it'll be trading for another 5 years conservatively with £0.7m cash flow each year = £3m discounted cash valuation of the trading business + Cash £2.6m as a non-operating asset = £5.6m and ignoring all other assets and intellectual property know-how.
So at £5.5m market cap, there's negligible downside risk and a highly profitable, scalable, cash generative, growth market upside return.

Seeming competitive advantages that CDOG has which appear to deliver such high profitability are:
# Scale economies where they do fixed cost research and development once and then sell to millions of subscribers.
# Also switching cost via mobile network’s connection of their value chain with CDOG's chain and therefore the client's reliance upon revenue from CDOG.
# Also learning curve of CDOG having a proprietary technology platform (hard to imitate) that delivers their service.

We'll see in a year what happens.

[drmaccers] 17/11/2015 19:40

I like the company. I'll invest at some point. No rush tho

[biggest bill] 17/11/2015 16:17

I think the share price fall has gone too far. Say, for example, that profits come in at £1.2m this year and next. Now subtract the cash pile from the market cap and the shares are trading at 2 times earnings. Surely this must be too cheap.

[mally6] 17/11/2015 08:52

look way too cheap illiquid shares move too much on small transactions.a few buys and this will turn blue

[pugugly] 17/11/2015 08:28

Illiquid and spread far too wide - Next stop delisting ?

[greasynut] 21/9/2015 10:47

I find today's interims satisfactory, particularly wrt free cash generation.
It is priced as if it is going downhill, whilst all metrics of profitability are attractive.

[redrumtum] 18/9/2015 16:17

Rivaldo, as per my earlier post,a startup with +ve cash flow and paying a dividend - what's not to like! Directors still own 90% of the co. (hence the illiquidity) so plenty of skin in the game. All the usual caveats that come with an overseas AIM listing, though.

Rrt

[rivaldo] 18/9/2015 15:23

Popping in here as a non-holder - seems like an over-reaction in a VERY illiquid stock?!

M/cap is now £15.9m, yet CDOG say they'll achieve £3.2m EBITDA this year even after today's warning.

And they had almost £3m cash at 30/6.

Any opinions?