Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 06/1/2021 17:52

It's not often that PI's get an opportunity to build a position in a high cash generating company like SAVE at a discount of up to 80% to the weighted average price of the group of blue chip Institutional Investors that have supported the placings to date.

Placings:
01-8-14 = $50m raised at 56p
10-7-15 = $36m at 38p
07-7-16 = $40m at 38p
22-12-17 = $125m at 35p
24-1-19 = $23m at 28p

$274m raised at an average of 39.1p

In 2021 with potential annual free cash flow of $140m from Nigeria(Finncap Note) some 30% of that could be returned as a dividend.

$42m at an exchange rate of £1/$1.35 is about 3.1p/share - 21% yield on the current share price - 10% yield on a share price of 31p or 5% yield on a share price of 62p (excluding any contribution from Niger.

AIMHO/DYOR

[chopsy] 21/4/2020 10:11

Thanks to honestsmarty for the new thread under the ticker SAVE. I suggest we all move over there, as multiple threads are confusing, and the graphs here are not showing SAVE price changes.

New thread title is (slightly unfortunately)

New name, new hope?

[divmad] 21/4/2020 09:31

Was it common knowledge that SAVE is currently awaiting an extension to their PSC agreement in the highly prospective Agadem oil rich Basin before they can start work, as the author stated? I wasn't aware. No wonder there hasn't been a Farm in agreement forthcoming in that case.

[plentymorefish] 20/4/2020 10:08

Fair enough....I have no issues with the content, just the manner in which it was 'presented'....With regards to the 'value', that could and should have been unlocked a while ago.....Time will ultimately tell on whether it's all been a vanity project or a stroke of genius all along!.....atb

[professor x] 20/4/2020 10:02

I get that, my point is he/she has made an effort to put something together. Some of the points raised in PDF have some credit. Don't get me wrong I'm as peeved with share price as every other suffering holder, but it's important not to forget what value could be unlocked going forward (patience permitted). I do see some value down here and have added to my hugely underwater holding.

[plentymorefish] 20/4/2020 09:49

Perhaps you're missing the point....it's not a research note, it's somebody's weekend homework.....it shouldn't be presented as something it's not.....

[professor x] 20/4/2020 09:43

Plenymorefish, compared to some of the drivel (bar Zengas) posted on here, it's not a bad effort. Do you have anything to add??

[nen2319] 20/4/2020 09:37

Anyone have the Numis note yet?

[plentymorefish] 20/4/2020 09:36

Research note?.....you're taking the p*ss, surely?!…..

[professor x] 20/4/2020 09:11

New research note, curtesy of 'Hardy Aim' on Twitter:

[zengas] 17/4/2020 22:27

16 April 2020 Premium Times (Abuja)

Also at the meeting was the Managing Director of the Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC), Chiedu Ugbo, who said the NIPP GENCos under the company's operations would get the gas fund and pay up.
He said the Calabar NIPP was the only plant with a standard gas supply agreement.
With the availability of gas during this period, he said electricity generation could be ramped up above 400 megawatts (MW) when every other plant was down.



Ties in with Savps tweet last week of it increasing gas supplies.

[zengas] 17/4/2020 21:51

If there was a payment issue going back to 2019 then i assume it will be rectified now. That is if we were still owed anything outstanding. All needs to be read carefully as some gas companies do not have power supply agreements where we do and also covered by guarantee.

What i find interesting is these payment issues have been resolved with the government helping out and paying the Gencos to settle outstanding gas bills - in the same week Savp tweets about increasing gas supplies, new broker notes, change of name to an energy company - Overall i'm confident. If anyone looks at the March broker note it assumes $130m free cash flow average with just 10% of that affected by oil +/- pricing. Also states that Savp are continuing to sort out their refinancing and for every 1 basis point it would increase the cash flow by $4m so that would be a very big positive as there's room to knock it down by 3 or 4 at least i believe. Maybe this delay in refinancing could be linked to any outstanding payments or simply bedding the company in as being successfully run.

16 April 2020
Premium Times (Abuja)
By Bassey Udo
The federal government has approved the payment of over N200 billion to the power sector in the two or three days. This will go a long way in making sure that those payment issues are resolved. We are engaging as the government to make sure that those payment issues are fully settled," the NNPC boss said.
Mr Mohammed assured that although there was sufficient gas to supply, there were several power plants that do not have gas supply agreements.
Such agreements, he said, spell out the terms and conditions under which gas is supplied by the suppliers to the buyers.
"The suppliers always divert the available gas to other places, and from time to time, the government always face some constraints in the supply of gas to electricity producers, which is a big problem," he said.
He said the NDPHC would soon receive its part of the payment and has already assured the GMD of NNPC that as soon as the NDPHC was paid, payment vouchers would be ready, for the immediate remittance to the gas companies.




April 17, 2020

The Group Managing Director (GMD) of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Mallam Mele Kyari, after meeting with the Minister of Power, Engr. Saleh Mamman, and the MD, Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), Mr Usman Gur Mohammed at the Ministry of Power headquarters in Abuja on Wednesday said “The federal government had made payment of N200 billllon to the power sector in the past days which he said was to ensure that the payment issues in the industry are resolved.
Ogaji said “For the record, Gencos have not received fresh funds from anyone. What Gencos have been paid is payment for energy produced and consumed for 2019. “We are currently being paid for monies owed for 2019.

[zengas] 17/4/2020 21:49

My reply to Paul on LSE.

Paul I pressed on that issue and was told they were being paid and nothing else elaborated on re any payment delays or non payment. I have not heard of any guarantees called upon and we have 2 of them.

Bottom line is i'm led to believe that we are being paid but as i said previous i do not know or am privy to what the standard settlement/payment terms are for Savp.

I will add for anyone that follows things, some of the problems in the electricity sector is lack of gas supply and indeed payment issues from the Gencos. Gencos in turn were complaining that gas suppliers were demanding upfront payments.
A broker note went out mid March and there was no mention of any payment issues for Savp (whether they would be aware i don't know but surely would highlight it it was an issue).
It's interesting that Savp tweeted last week that they had actually increased gas supplies during the Covid-19 outbreak (tweet on the 13th).
Today the name change to Savannah Energy and a new website from Monday.
Today a Numis note tweeted by Savp as being out today but i haven't seen it and might be on that new website when unlocked monday. Surely Numis took some guidance from Savp as to the current state of play ??

If this is all coincidence and the reason for being quiet to date in delaying updates to resolve any outstanding issues i don't know - but the most important thing i've learned is that the Government has paid the Gencos over N200b (i think that's some £400m) to settle outstanding gas bills and resolve the problem.

Business & Economy: FG pays N200bn to offset Gencos’ gas bill
The Federal Government has in the past two to three days paid over N200bn for power supply in Nigeria, the Group Managing Director, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, Mele Kyari, declared on Wednesday.
When asked what government was doing to resolve the non-payment for gas by power generation companies, Kyari said, “Actually the Federal Government has made payments of over N200bn for power in the last two to three days.
The NNPC boss stated that the payment would adequately help in settling the indebtedness of power generation firms to gas companies.

[plentymorefish] 17/4/2020 12:03

He's only had 5 years so far....give him a chance!....;)

[jotoha2] 17/4/2020 12:02

Near term must be 2/3 months , so exciting times ahead , come on AK show us how good you are at building a company !

[nametrade] 17/4/2020 11:27

Zengas,

It says near term, which I take to be non comittal on period length.

Also with the power generation issues that Nigeria have been recently having I would have thought new contracts could have been acheieved. Your view on this as to why not?

Cheers.

[buffythebuffoon] 17/4/2020 09:05

Jotoha2, Moha30,

Unusually, I’m unsure whether one of you or both are extracting the ....

Buffy

[jotoha2] 17/4/2020 08:29

I see some of the Royals have been praising the great work done by Captain Tom , what an achievement , lets hope they step up to the mark and make a contribution , £15 million would be great !

[divmad] 17/4/2020 08:27

Good idea to remove the word Petroleum from the company's name. WTI dropping still, $25 now.

[mr roper] 17/4/2020 08:17

Should’ve changed the name to afren

[moho30] 17/4/2020 08:10

Quality. That"s why you pay them the big bucks !

[jotoha2] 17/4/2020 08:05

We have news flow ! magnificent , AK says we are going to grow the business over the next few years , fantastic , will take another 300k today if I can get them .

[buffythebuffoon] 17/4/2020 07:44

Let’s hope people don’t need to reach his age to get a good return here.

God SAVE us

Buffy