Intelek Share Discussion Threads

[interceptor2] 04/10/2014 11:35

TRAK8 (TRAK) is a Fleet management solutions and vehicle tracking system company, customers range from corporate fleets to small businesses that all benefit from improved operational efficiency, driver safety and fuel economy.

Their devices improve driver behaviour both for fuel economy and risk reductions, as well as driving service and repair quality commitments for a wide range of industries, including Insurance, Construction, Government Organisations and Utilities sectors.


Market cap = £73.1m

PE = 44.34
PER = 22.14 and 15.81
PEG = 0.22 and 0.40

Yield nil

Net cash = £0.60m
CFS/EPS x 3.26 last 5 years

Net margin = 9.46%
PSR = 3.94

Last 5 years all profitable.

Profit growth last 2 years and next 2 years estimated = 210%, 250%, 100%, 42%

Something new.29th October 2015, first contract in North America to supply data company with 25,000 devices over the next two years.

Next results are Finals expected in July 2016.

Directors holdings
The directors hold 42% of the companies shares, with the Chairman holding 19.24%, so they have a good interest in the company. The only recent transactions were on 27th July 2015, when directors placed 9.6% of their holdings at 157.5p to satisfy institutional demand. I normally take this reason with a healthy pinch of salt, but I feel that it is a genuine reason on this occasion.

Relative strength = 12 month 250%, 6 month 60%, 3 month 37%

I have wanted to highlight TRAK as a strong zulu stock for a while, but I was waiting for a pullback to buy my initial holding first, which is in the process of happening now. The first contract win in America could be a significant catalyst to opening up further contract wins, and the contract is a good size when it is considered that 95.000 units were sold last year.

The zulu characteristics that are listed speak for themselves, even though the headline PE and PER figures might put some off. I know this because I was put off from investing at 58p in March 2014 due to looking at a PE of 73p and a PER of 25, but with a strong growth company these ratios can look cheap in a years time. The share price has increased by 300% since March 2014, but the PE and PER figures are in fact lower.

An exciting GARP/ZULU company, that might be giving an opportunity to buy an initial position on a pullback imv.

Regards ic2...

[interceptor2] 13/3/2014 09:05

AdamB1978, I enjoyed reading your post post and agree with most of the points you made. As you said risk management is the most important consideration when buying shares, once I have a stock I am interested to but, first I will work out a plan to where I will sell before I look at the upside. Cash preservation is the number one consideration, which becomes even more important at times like this.

I am optimistic by nature and think that this might be a healthy correction, but best to prepare in case this is not the case. The market has been climbing a wall of worry, was the poor German data the final straw? Or was the poor data a one off blip and next month's figures could show this was the case.

The UK could be effected by the Euro Zone falling back into recession, but the UK has benefited by attracting business people from weak European members where it is extremely hard to start up businesses. Could we see a further increase, the UK is I believe the most attractive country to do business.

In the first two month's of this year my portfolio was up 16%, but due to mainly investing in AIM stocks my gain declined to 13% at the end of September. Must be under 10% now. The only reason I managed to keep most of the gain is because my cash balance kept increasing. From 30% in March it slowly increased to 66% by September due to lack of good opportunities, some stops hit and profits taken, and recently a more defensive nature

[interceptor2] 21/7/2013 21:37

Next Fifteen (NFC)

Is a company that might by worth a look imo.

Next Fifteen Communications Group PLC is engaged in the provision of public relations services. Its four segments are Technology PR, Consumer PR, Digital and Research Consultancy, and Corporate Communications.

They issued a positive trading update last Thursday, saying that full year results will exceed the top end of market expectations. This has been achieved due to continuing strength and expansion in their USA markets, and improved margins in the UK. Even Europe and Asia are delivering improved results.

Also announced was a placing at 145p to raise £4.3m for continued acquisitions. With the price now at 161p, I think this will give solid support from a technical viewpoint.

A few zulu type criteria...

PER of 14.36 and a PEG of 0.12 for year just ended.

PER of 12.57 and a PEG of 0.88 for 2016.

CFS over EPS = x1.96 for last 4 years.

Net debt = £1.4m

Market cap £92.0m, and spread = 2%, so fairly liquid.

Yield = 1.63% and cover = 1.77

PSR = 0.99

Relative strength 1, 3 and 12 months all positive. Just look at the chart.

Something new =

New CEO 25th March 2014, look at the chart since his appointment.

Acquisitions and expansion into USA markets.

Placing to fund further acquisitions.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[interceptor2] 21/7/2013 21:36

Just thought I would include QPP, as an excellent example, I did sell my holdings in December 2012 at 14p, chart would have given signal at 14.5p on 7th February 10 days below 50ma. And no buy points after December 2012.

[interceptor2] 21/7/2013 21:36

Company Check Sheet

Mandatory

Prefer PER below 20.

PEG below 0.7

Future 2 years growth rate = +15%

Net Cash ,(Gearing 30% max), Net debt to Equity below 50%

Cash flow per share in excess of EPS in last report and each of last 5 years.


Each of the past 5 years must be profitable.


Last 2 years and the next 2 forecast years must show growth at plus 15%. Plus free cash flow after deducting Capex and Dividends





High relative strength in previous 3 & 12 months.

No selling by clusters of Directors

Desirable

Cluster of Directors buying shares.

Market Cap between 20 to 250 million.

Break out from a previous base

Dividend

Bonus

Like to buy when share is moving up.
Like to buy when market is moving up.
High relative strength in previous 1 month

Something new.

New management.
New technology or new products.
New events in an industry including legislation.
New acquisitions.
New high price

[interceptor2] 21/7/2013 21:35

A clear example of selling too soon on unfounded concerns, two monor dips in March 13 and April 13, but no triggers. I should still be holding.

[interceptor2] 21/7/2013 21:34

I sold a little early, but would have been out later in early February, 10 days below 50ma, so no difference in the end. Apart from JDG the only other stock to flag a sell point.

[interceptor2] 21/7/2013 21:34

TRB, No selling points using the criteria.

[interceptor2] 21/7/2013 21:23

Straight forward with only one period below the 50ma earlier this month, and only 5 days, 5% below.

[interceptor2] 21/1/2013 17:04

This is the most complex chart to know when to hold and when to sell and buy back.

Since Sept 2009 it fell below the 50ma line 6 times, and 3 times it would have stayed below for over 10 days and would hit the 150ma also. First December 2009 would have been a sell at 150ma at 134p, and a buy again at 180; 21W 40/10 3T

Feb 2011 = a sell at 400p, 10 days below 50ma, and a buy 457p = 2W 18 1T

Aug 2011 - a sell at 445p at 150ma, and a buy at 510 which was in March 2012 = 14W 12/8 3T

Not an easy one, but in pratice we traded JDG very well, using targets, stops and sometimes gut feeling.

[interceptor2] 01/1/2013 12:27

Just a test thread please ignore.

[interceptor2] 16/8/2012 08:04

I do read nearly all UK company announcements each morning, and would conclude that the the sentiment in trading staements wouldn't imply that the UK is in a double dip now. I agree that most companies that are performing ahead of expectations seem to be the ones that are exposed to stronger export markets.

Most others seem to be performing inline, but seem to add a note of caution to their statements due to the continued negative reporting from the likes of the BBC. But I wonder if the cautious outlook will start to change soon as directors continue to experience the difference between reality and the sentiments from left leaning media like the BBC.

I liked the way TRI kicked off their bullish IMS statement last week.

"The 'doomsday' effect from the incessant flow of media negativity towards global economics is actually serving to motivate our people to becoming 'fanatical' about transactional margin improvement and removing wasteful activities and expenditure."


ic2...

[interceptor2] 14/8/2011 09:23

 




 

Over

[interceptor2] 20/2/2011 11:58

Edit.........

[theglade] 11/8/2010 09:56

Good bye ITK

[interceptor2] 10/8/2010 22:48

Cash received.

Good luck with re-investing and hopefully finding another takeover target.

Regards ic2.......

[deswalker] 09/8/2010 21:42

Cash received in Selftrade account.