Hangar 8 Share Discussion Threads

[smith99] 08/1/2015 13:51

(off Topic Sorry) - Hiya Mike, This share popped onto my radar and I just spotted your name. Glad to see you're still about. Keeping well I hope ? Mike

[michaelwhight] 06/1/2015 09:00

Cheers W....

[wjccghcc] 06/1/2015 08:51

Usually takes a day or so.

[michaelwhight] 06/1/2015 08:33

Anyone else having problems getting the new ticker on advfn?

[rivaldo] 06/1/2015 08:05

This is now GMAA as of today - thought I'd create a new thread for the merged entity:

[macarre] 05/1/2015 23:22

And talking about Avation, it just looks like it is setting itself up for another run within next few days... imho.

[stardrops2] 05/1/2015 13:24

A tie-up with Avation would make sense

[topvest] 05/1/2015 13:12

I wonder whether they will be interested in buying Air Partner at some point, now that they have increased in size?

[macarre] 05/1/2015 10:08

Bought back this morning, as it touched 309p and appears to be in the rebound.

[michaelwhight] 05/1/2015 09:57

All strategies good I think. My pockets just aren't as deep as others so I can't keep topping up. I'm just happy to have 15% or so more shares than I had a few days ago for no extra cost.

[gargleblaster] 05/1/2015 09:09

Buyers coming in at these levels

[igoe104] 05/1/2015 09:04

This will probably be share price or higher by the end of the end, this seems to be momentum share.

[goliard] 05/1/2015 09:02

I think it is just the institutions that get shares at 280p locking in their early profit in advance. If they don't have a long term hold strategy or a lock-in then it's pretty natural. I'm not interested in trading these and will just buy the dips, which has served me well thus far.

[stardrops2] 05/1/2015 08:54

in at 310 cheap at these prices

[michaelwhight] 05/1/2015 08:48

It's just jitters. I'm back in at 313. GLA

[igoe104] 05/1/2015 08:27

Just traders getting in and out all the time, pumping then dumping?

[gorilla36] 05/1/2015 08:25

This is all a bit silly now - have the shorters started on this?

[rivaldo] 04/1/2015 08:52

Agreed igoe - the figures make HGR8 just too cheap imho.

The forecast for calendar year 2015 is 40c, or 26p EPS (at $1.55) and then 46c or 30p EPS for next year.

Plus the enlarged group have a nice cash pile which further reduces the ex-cash P/E.

The group will also benefit from:
- the lower tax charge due to GAMA's US tax losses
- likely exchange rate movements given the strengthening dollar
- much lower fuel prices given the halving of the oil price
- £1m+ of merger synergies per tip/newspaper articles

And of course GAMA is at a highly profitable inflection point in its US trading.

A 340p or so share price based on these figures looks very good value to me, particularly given that funds and institutions will want to be part of what is now one of the top 5 operators in the world - and with extremely high recurring income making it even more attractive in investment terms.

PS : note that the year end has now changed to 31st December, so figures to 30th June are redundant.

[igoe104] 03/1/2015 12:08

ps

This is the last share in the world I would want to trade, you could be getting a 15%/20% spread easily between selling and then buying back in again, any half-decent amount of stock.

[igoe104] 03/1/2015 11:43

I`m staying put with these, with a great possibility of EPS of 45p/50p over the next few years they has to be at least 100% upside. with more and more demand for private jets and a falling petrol price this share should be a big winner over the medium term.

With the larger cap which will make the companies shares less volatile and improve the spreads which should attract institutional investors.

[twirl] 03/1/2015 11:17

Thanks for your figures Adam.

Good luck to holders and traders

[adamb1978] 03/1/2015 11:03

Hi gragleblaster,

Nope, I dont try to pick tops and bottoms - it would be an impossible task! I have tried to become more disciplined in where I want to buy/sell though, and I think that helped me last year. I think previously there were situations where my view on whether to hold/buy/sell was influenced by what the share price had done, rather than the more impartial view which you can take before you buy in (and then update for any hard facts which emerge).

Obviously if the price doesnt fall to my entry price then I wouldnt be buying in and if the share price rose from there then I would miss the boat. There's plenty of listed companies out there though and plenty of siutations where you decide not to invest yet, had you done so, you would have made a decent return. You dont have to make your returns in HGR8 alone!! My view on sitting on the sidelines for now is a risk/return assessment - if my view on the numbers for the next 12 months is right then I dont see much sustained upside from a 350p share price over 2015, but see the potential for more material downside.

re the equity analyst comment, I take it with a pinch of salt. If you invested based on what analysts say, it would be an easy way to lose money! Plus revenue synergies are notoriously difficult to extract - very easy to hypothesise about what could happen based on a combination but even easier to over-estimate.
Cheers
Adam

[gargleblaster] 03/1/2015 10:40

Adam - what do you do if it does not fall to 280p - say it falls to 300p and then starts to rise? Do you buy in at that point, or continue to wait and possibly miss the boat. If it does fall to 280p it will take some bravery to buy in to a falling trend at that point?

If the company is likely to be twice as profitable in 3 years time as Cantor predict then imv best to hold (pending any real changes in circumstances). Mind you if you can easily pick tops and bottoms - your a better investor than me.

[adamb1978] 02/1/2015 20:35

Triwl

My figures for teh year to Jun-15 (obviously only includes 6 months from Gama) are:

Revenues: £94m
Gross profit: £23m
EBITDA: just over £7m
EPS: 20p (dilued, pre-excep)

Main assumptions are (i) HGr8 standalone figures for yr to Jun-15 produce EBITDA of £3.0m (which is the figure which was used for the merger exchnage ratio) (ii) for Gama standalone, 5% t/o growth in calendar '15 and EBITDA margin up to 18% and (iii) FX of 1.6/1. My uncertainties relate to how quickly Gama grows but I dont feel I've been overl reckless or overl prudent. Was also noticeable that the announcement was quiet about impact on earnings.

Fy16 would then be materially higher with the full year from Gama plus synergies coming through, however as I said above, I think Mr Market will mark the company down sub £3 before it starts to think about FY16. I expect to be back in later in the year.
Cheers

Adam