Bloomsbury Publishing Share Discussion Threads

[crazycoops] 11/4/2024 16:15

Has he accepted David?

[davidosh] 11/4/2024 16:10

We will be covering the Bloomsbury results on the 23rd May at the Mello conference as it is perfect timing. We have also invited Nigel Newton to do a presentation at the event.

[dicktrade] 11/4/2024 11:07

Here is one of the new authors you refer to .

[18bt] 11/4/2024 10:15

tom, I think the 32.2p EPS forecast refers to mkt forecasts for 2025. The opportunity/risk is that those forecasts change. Personally I am doubtful that revenue will decrease by c15% and EPS by c30% in 2025. There may not be another new Sarah J Maas but back catalogues and continued success at picking successful new authors/genres bodes well in my view.

[74tom] 11/4/2024 10:09

Worth listening to this fund manager interview;



BMY discussed from 54-57 mins.

Paul Hill & the fund manager stating it's on a 16.5x earnings multiple, ~14x ex cash.

Based on the current share price of 533p, a 16.5x multiple would mean a forecast EPS of 32.3p, whereas after the last upgrade I can see the forecast EPS appears to be 45.8p, which would mean it's a current year PE of 11.6 and an ex cash PE of exactly 10x...

So when results land on 23rd May, even if the market values it as 12x ex-cash, the result would be a share price of 630p.

At 16.5x basic EPS it would be valued at £7.32, ex cash £8.05!

Looks like a gift to me, based on BMY being under covered by analyst's & not circulating it's financials to PI's, resulting in an information gap.

It's also possible they exceed 45.8p, given the forecast was updated 2 weeks before the end of their financial year.

[westofengland] 06/4/2024 14:28

Takes two views to make a market.I doubled
my significant holding in last 10 days as I think this is a great business. Will be interesting firstly to see whether discOdave gets involved and also looking forward to the results in 6 weeks time.

[nigelog] 06/4/2024 08:49

Have been selling since the shares hit £5+ just for the profit £6k tax free. Will sell again on Monday for £3k tax free. Bloomsbury has done this before and then gone back all the way down so I am making a loss. Will keep some back for the results.

[panache1] 04/4/2024 14:42

Why are people selling small chunks at this level with results out in 6 weeks or so ?

[riverman77] 27/3/2024 22:23

It has a tendency to not hold on to its gains, but tempted to top up if it goes any lower. Amazon book charts still feature Sarah J Maaas heavily in the fantasy section which bodes well for continued earnings growth.

[eeza] 27/3/2024 18:10

But note that there is gap on the chart from 518 down 507.0p.

[disc0dave46] 27/3/2024 18:07

Just general market waiting for US infkation data and risk off, IMVHO.

[panache1] 27/3/2024 16:07

What's happening today ?? Good time to buy I think (hope)

[alter ego] 15/3/2024 14:07

waiting for next years ISA subs

[panache1] 15/3/2024 13:35

Must be worth a top up at these levels

[westofengland1] 06/3/2024 06:14

Have held for 5 years. Great business. Bought more yesterday.I believe we'll see 650p after results in May.

[nigelog] 26/2/2024 16:49

Have held Bloomsbury from 2006 (£3.59)it’s only in the last 3 months I have seen a profit, so have started to sell some today. But still have thousands left.

Also this financial year you can make £6000 tax free but in a few weeks time it goes down to £3000 that was my decision to sell some today.

[ayl30] 26/2/2024 15:35

Very quiet here despite 5% rise

[adamb1978] 19/2/2024 08:26

BMY has consistently (or at least for the 2-3 years which I've been a holder) had nonsense forecasts in the market. The current ones are no different.

The CEO / CFO are extremely conservative in all they do (huge cash balance is another example) which has its pluses and minuses, but one of the minuses is that market forecasts are always stupidly low

[adamb1978] 18/2/2024 14:46

We know that that 32.2p EPS figure is absurd though

[disc0dave46] 18/2/2024 12:30

The median PE over the past 5 years is 17x, on a forecast eps of 32.2p that's 547p.

[eeza] 16/2/2024 19:06

From ST's write-up in IC (15 Feb 2024)

"Although analysts at Investec and Numis expect pre-tax profit and EPS in the 2024-25 financial year to normalise around £35.6mn and 32.2p, they also forecast 33 per cent plus growth in free cash flow to boost net cash to £85mn (104p). On this basis, the cash-adjusted PE ratio would only be 13.6 in 12 months and that ignores the possibility of Bloomsbury overdelivering."