Volvere Share Discussion Threads

[kispis59] 02/4/2024 11:31

Alas,the share price will languish until Shire proves its value by being sold.

[eezymunny] 02/4/2024 10:25

Always fun looking a VLE.

Top-line compound growth at Shire I calculate at 13.6% over 8 years (and similar for profit growth). That´s a fantastic achievement.

Using Ben Graham´s valuation guide of PE = (8 + sustainable growth rate)suggests a reasonable PE for Shire of 20+. VLE´s 80% share of Shire is worth £40m+ by that valuation method. Add the cash and you get a c. £64m valuation or £28+ per share.

Who´d have thought that a "boring" old food manufacturing business could perform so well? Mr Market clearly thinks its too boring. I don´t.

[rivaldo] 14/3/2024 07:18

Last night's and this morning's RNS's suggest that Canaccord Discretionary Clients were the sellers, and their shares were picked up by (1) the buybacks and (2) Crucible Clarity Fund Plc, who increased their holding to 6.55%, or 152,393 shares.

[elsa7878] 13/3/2024 20:17

Could buy any amount on trading update day. So good to see an investor and a noble one picking up some stock as well as the company. Crazy not to. Look forward to seeing who the seller is as between the buyback and the investor increasing their stake that constitutes about 5% of the company.
Just need to remind yourself of the longer term returns achieved. Indulgence a horror bought at completely the wrong time (unfortunate). With oodles of cash the opportunities for acquisitions must be endless.
Naughty vegan on the naughty step.
Discount to NAV is too much.
Surprised if the buy backs are not accelerated. Should be. Far too much cash even if the interest pays the corporate overheads.

[eeza] 13/3/2024 17:50

Holdings RNS

Crucible Clarity Fund Plc increased from 5.21% to 6.55%. (TVR 152,393 shares)

[eezymunny] 13/3/2024 16:17

The valuations above are ignoring the strength of the Shire balance sheet.

So Rivaldo´s stab I´d increase to maybe £50m total valuation (£22/share). Just a matter of opinion of course, but a buyer of Shire gets a fabulous balance sheet (£14m TNAV end 2022, call it £12m so as not to double count cash?) as well as all the future profits...

[stemis] 13/3/2024 15:54

But in calculating P/E, NAV/share, cost of dividends or any other ratio that depends on the number of shares, they are the same and are excluded from the calculations. There are effectively no shareholders of those shares to receive any benefit from the company (unless you believe a company can be a shareholder in itself).

[eeza] 13/3/2024 13:38

Treasury they still exist.
Cancelled they don't exist.

[stemis] 13/3/2024 13:36

Yes, but shares are held in Treasury, so are still extant & should not be excluded, imo.

Makes no difference if they are held in treasury or cancelled

[eeza] 13/3/2024 13:31

Yes, but shares are held in Treasury, so are still extant & should not be excluded, imo.

[rivaldo] 13/3/2024 12:57

Wow. That's a really NAV-enhancing move. Over £916,000 of buybacks, and there must be a belief (rightly imo as above) that at 1160p the shares are extremely undervalued.

[jaf111] 13/3/2024 12:44

Well the cash pile is now close on £1m lighter after the 79,000 share buy-back!

[rivaldo] 13/3/2024 10:39

Re the above valuation, he's used a straight 25% tax charge on Shire's £3.64m contribution to VLE after intra-group management charges et al.

Firstly, the tax charge is unlikely to be precisely the full 25% due to capital allowances and super deductions. Let's call it a conservative 22%. Secondly, imo we should use Shire's PBT before intercompany charges etc, which is £3.86m. Thirdly, let's be a tad more generous and use a P/E of 8 given Shire's terrific track record and apparently excellent competitive position.

That gives Shire a £19.3m valuation. Add in the £23.74m cash and the total is £43.04m, which is around £18.50 per share.

Happy to be corrected/struck down!

[rivaldo] 12/3/2024 22:31

A starting point for discussions re valuation posted from Jeff256 elsewhere - will have a think myself about this tomorrow:

"Well, the pie business is making £2.73m after tax. Apply a PE of 7 on 80% ownership and we get about £15.3m. Add £23.74m cash and we get £39m

Approx £16.90 per share."

[rivaldo] 12/3/2024 12:42

Agreed - I'd certainly consider a tender offer at the £15 or thereabouts NAV for part or all of my holding.

[rimau1] 12/3/2024 08:31

I don't often get my timing right, i have also topped up managing 11.20 i would hope for a tender offer at NAV once they have executed the identified M&A.

[jaf111] 12/3/2024 08:27

Fingers crossed they will sort out the ridiculous cash situation….the patience of shareholders has been greatly tested so either make a acquisition, hand back the excess cash through a divi or tender offer, or sell Shire and distribute everything 😂

[rivaldo] 12/3/2024 08:22

The final sentence is also interesting - perhaps they're suggesting special dividends here?

"we are focused on enhancing shareholder value and, inter alia, continue to monitor and review our ongoing requirements in terms of the cash required to deliver our strategy"

[jaf111] 12/3/2024 08:22

Indeed it is very good…..although why couldn’t they issue the RNS at the normal 7.00am 🤔

Have topped up….

[rivaldo] 12/3/2024 08:14

The trading update is out - and it's terrific:

- a PBT of £4.75m! Including the £1.1m gain on Indulgence's properties, but it's a great headline....
- Shire Foods made a core PBT of £3.86m (up from £2.78m), up almost 40%....
- the cash pile is up to £23.74m, against a £24.8m m/cap!
- NAV is up to £14.82 per share and £37.5m

Even better:

- investment opportunities are improving
- and re Shire:

"We have been encouraged, however, by the levels of new business opportunities we are seeing in Shire and remain cautiously optimistic for the remainder of the year"

In the year when JL so sadly passed away, congrats to Nick in particular.

[rimau1] 11/3/2024 12:28

I bought in last week for the first time, sucked up the spread on the basis that the marketcap is in cash and shire is essentially free. Downside is the illiquidity and lack of corporate action, a trade sale and company wind-up would add a lot of value here.

[rivaldo] 11/3/2024 11:55

Worth noting that in the last week (assuming that the 1075p trades are buys) there's been 5,652 shares bought and none sold, i.e around £60,000, with no effect on the share price. Which is most unusual for this stock. Presumably there's a seller in the background, but it's also good to see the stock getting bought up.

Hopefully this'll clear the way for after the results - or perhaps a trading update soon given last year's was on 14th March.

[rivaldo] 13/2/2024 07:19

News that Aldi is spending £550m this year expanding its store network, and wants to grow it's current 1,000 stores to 1,500. Which should be good for Shire:

[cockerhoop] 08/1/2024 16:04

I saw Naughty Vegan as moving Shire up the value chain rather than being just a contract manufacturer.