Lindsell Train Investment Share Discussion Threads

[fabius1] 12/4/2024 10:26

Flyer61. Just my own take on a worst case scenario, but either way, it always makes sense to keep some powder dry for opportunities and those rainy days :).

[flyer61] 12/4/2024 10:14

Thank goodness we are not far off buying ULVR and DGE here (LTI) at the prices you are mentioning Fabius1!

I agree with you about DGE as I exited my full position at £37.

Overall you are reassuring me about having LTI as my largest holding!

[fabius1] 12/4/2024 09:58

giltedge1 - Yes, it has been bouncing off @£792 but the price trend is down. Stepping back from this for a moment, if we look at two key constituents of LTI (and many funds for that matter), Unilever & Diageo. ULVR - good brand but in the process of sorting itself out after a few years of neglect. My target is @£31 ish. Long term channel support,key support area and more realistic price to cash flow etc. let's not forget that W Buffett made an offer at @ 32.74 (I recall) back in frothier times before beating a hasty and embarrassed retreat. However, that might come into play when it is well known that he is less than sanguine on current market valuations balanced against a shortage of good value potential portfolio acquisitions. DGE - A 'brand of brands' driven by a good but 'charismatic' former late CEO and a series of acquisitions but really a bit of a debt junky and now facing a headwind of higher costs of capital and a new CEO who has yet to earn his spurs in testing times. Long term channel support and historic support area suggests @ £21 ish on the back of questionable price to cash flow etc. Now those price targets represent @ 20% corrections. On a macro basis, cross reference the correlation in percentage terms and you get @ £643 on LTI and @ 326p on the bellweather CTY although I would settle for 300-280p or so. By the way, I am not a chartist but it certainly helps with joining up the 'possible' dots.

[giltedge1] 12/4/2024 08:08

I am no chartist but bounced three times off £800, which us a good sign I think. Take comfort from HY Accounts LT had Cash & Investments £110m.

[essentialinvestor] 11/4/2024 18:49

IF ME conflict spreads, those levels mentioned may be possible, likely fleeting snd on a particularly bad day. None of us have a crystal ball obvs.

[fabius1] 11/4/2024 18:43

Flyer61 - Sure. Looks like we have broken original support @ £890 and failed retest which also lined up with the channel support and the price is now heading south. I think the next support is @ £700 which also coincides with a possible long term channel. There was plenty of chop between £700 & £600 June 2016 which could trigger some liquidity. On valuations, I am bearish on equities for now. Perhaps more important, this general pattern seems to be on the cards for a number of stocks and funds so not specific to LTI. My feeling is the market is looking for strong historic price levels. Just my opinion, of course, but I hope that covers it.

[flyer61] 11/4/2024 14:39

He buys for his children (grandchildren) trust fund. Mr Lindsell probably has a family of trustifarians.

Fabius1, I would be interested in your methodology to get to £700 let alone £600 per share.

You do know at £700 there would in effect be no value given to the FM business whatsoever which still has £15B of FUM, £100M of cash on the balance sheet and no debt. Oh and is still making tens of millions of pounds post tax profit per year.

[essentialinvestor] 11/4/2024 14:15

Why not just buy FGT ..?.

[mozy123] 11/4/2024 14:10

ML buying like a mad man.

[fabius1] 11/4/2024 12:46

@ £700-600 seems to be the key target range for me.

[flyer61] 10/4/2024 11:00

Unbelievably I have day traded this....also the MM have got the buy/sell round the wrong way a few times and that has been useful :-).

[spectoacc] 10/4/2024 10:36

Lol Gravy Train..

LTI is Train and Lindsell, nothing's surely going to change.

I've only seen your buys on here :)

[flyer61] 10/4/2024 10:05

Whilst I have traded LTI extensively these last 3 months...90 trades and counting I am actually in it for the long haul. The new chairman hasn't really spoken yet so we don't know for sure what we are going to get. Will it be the 'boys club' we know best you haven't got the tie and don't have a boat so f"£$ off or will it be 'having reviewed the trust we are going to conduct a strategic review to ensure all shareholders....'

Even modelling for another £3B of AUM loss LTI is still not expensive. In any other line of work ie a halving of your business (LTL) you would be shown the door but this gravy Train ;-) doesn't have doors....

Ironically own two of those 4 you have mentioned. The only one I am comfortable with is API. It hasn't voted but i'm guessing the wind up will go through.

Maybe i'll take a punt on GABI and ADIG...but it feels like introducing warts into my underwear....

[spectoacc] 10/4/2024 06:54

Spot on @steve3sandal. AUM is falling, plus the LT star is waning (waned?).

@giltedge1/Flyer61 - unless you can point me to it, there's been NO prospect of LTI winding up, being sold, or anything else. GABI, ADIG, API, and VSL are all in the process of winding down, all announced to the market (API yet to vote), two with first payments imminent (one RNS'd)..

Totally different to LTI, which only looks like value if you ignore everything else on offer IMO.

And I say that as a shareholder! It's far from expensive, but it's a crowded field, and AUM has further to fall first.

[steve3sandal] 09/4/2024 18:48

Ge1, flyer 61, yes, can’t argue with that so we can sleep soundly at night knowing that our asset cover is sound. Michael has just added 75 at £795 so he knows too. What won’t change is the rights of minority interests (us) if the Board have no interest in a strategy to trade around NAV. I don’t think LTI will retain their Witan mandate so AUM will continue to fall unless we have a listed UK stock market boom. Off thread but FGT really stepped up BBs around 1M share a week, gobbling LTL AUM and forcing Train and co to net sell its holdings here and in the OEICS for those redemptions. Must be depressing for our heroic optimist. Board need to come up with some independent thinking, Michael must have a plan even whilst Nick tells us how great these companies are whilst being forced seller. It’s probably not the best idea to tell us again that they are staying for 7 more years. If I had a £250m net worth I’d still be brassed off if it went down. Waiting on the Board to act and speak for all shareholders please.

[giltedge1] 09/4/2024 17:43

You can add LTI to the list the portfolio would be sold in a few days & LT has £100m on balance sheet, so can buy our holding so 25% in a week.

[spectoacc] 09/4/2024 16:39

@Flyer61 - do I hell. But I see the discount, the impending large cash return, and did extremely well out of a previous winding-up PE (which is what the rump will partly be), mainly due to them taking their time and allowing the redemptions to come in. Upside to that NAV isn't impossible.

API much clearer, and real assets - but have yet to vote, and the seller is relentless.

GABI I understand little either, but the loans are redeeming naturally, & there's a decent chance of outright sale.

VSL another but they've been disappointing.

Bottom line for me is, I see c.15% pa for a few years on each of the first 3, with little downside risk. That becomes a high bar for any other punts.

[flyer61] 09/4/2024 08:43

Curious spec....do you have a good understanding of what is in ADIG?

giltedge....agree. I make LTL just 32% of assets now.

[spectoacc] 09/4/2024 08:30

Lol @badtime - fair point - good luck me :)

@giltedge1 - barring the April ISA season uplift, I can see AUM falling for most asset managers, and the longer Mr L & Mr T seem like yesterday's men, the worse it may be for L-T Ltd.

When that turns, and where it turns, is when I want to be properly long.

Also think there's too many other good things to buy - eg some of the winder-uppers like API, GABI, ADIG (currently losing on 2 of those 3 mind).

[giltedge1] 09/4/2024 08:26

NAV actually increased YOY about 2% if you add back dividend. Portfolio of blue chips increased, stake in LTL decreased. Obviously sentiment not good with declining AUM. EPS should be over 50 so div can be maintained 2024. Note LTI deduct mgt fee in full other trusts allocate at least 50% to capital. LTL highly profitable even at £15B AUM On a purely asset/cashflow basis should be nearer £1000. Question is how can NT turn around declining AUM?

[flyer61] 08/4/2024 19:49

badtime....I need a bit of luck ;-).

[badtime] 08/4/2024 19:27

So wishing yourself good luck too? :)

[flyer61] 08/4/2024 16:53

yes AUM will probably go lower unless the market heads higher. We should still pick up £9-9.5M of dividend from LTL. So our stake is still generating 12-13% yield on declared valuation. I'll take that!

[spectoacc] 08/4/2024 16:39

Just out, £15.2bn AUM, not terrible, but possibly more to drop:

"As at 31 March 2024, LTL shares were valued at £10,818.76 per share, a decrease of 1.4% from the valuation of £10,977.12 per share as at the previous monthly valuation on 29 February 2024. LTL's valuation is calculated with reference to a ratio of annualised notional net profits of £29.2m to Funds Under Management at LTL of £15.2 billion resulting in a percentage of funds under management of 1.90%."