Vp Share Discussion Threads

[edmonda] 16/4/2024 07:43

"Resilient FY24, confident long-term outlook"

Vp’s full year update highlights sector-leading results, once again benefiting from the diversity of its end markets and the quality of its specialist businesses.

With results expected to be broadly in line with expectations, we trim our FY24 PBT forecast by c.5% to £39.0m, a shade below the FY23 outturn (£40.2m). We consider this an impressively resilient performance set against a mixed market backdrop.

Under new leadership, a strategic refresh is underway and management is confident in long term prospects. In our view, the valuation is compelling (FY25E P/E of c7x). We reiterate our Fair Value estimate of 1090p per share.

Link to research report:

[mammyoko] 27/2/2024 16:06

Filling a gap? Big move on no volume. Support at 500p?

[sleepy] 30/1/2024 14:40

Speedy’s news - SDY

[vulgaris] 30/1/2024 14:35

Big drop on no news?

[edmonda] 28/11/2023 07:21

Vp plc - "5279;;Delivering growth in uncertain markets", new research report here: 

Vp’s interims confirm another solid performance and continued growth despite the challenging backdrop. Revenue increased by 2.4% to £190.9m and adjusted PBT by 1.9% to £21.9m. This is >50% of our full year forecast (trimmed by c.4% to bring us in line with consensus).

Infrastructure demand has driven a positive H1 performance for Vp’s Groundforce, Torrent and TPA businesses. Vp’s experience is consistent with the latest construction industry data, which showsinfrastructure demand offsetting weakness in general construction and housebuilding. Vp is well positioned to benefit when these softer markets return to growth.

The period was notable for the change in leadership with Anna Bielby succeeding Neil Stothard as Group Chief Executive. Keith Winstanley has been appointed Group CFO and joins the Group in January 2024. We expect the refreshed management team to build on the Group’s strong foundations, with Digital innovation and ESG commitment at the forefront of Group strategy.

Following recent share price moves, Vp still trades at a marked discount to its immediate peers and its historic average rating. Over the long term, Vp has traded on a P/E rating of c.12x and the valuation at today’s share price represents a 30% discount to this level. We maintain our Fair Value estimate of £10.90 per share.

[edmonda] 11/10/2023 08:59

Apologies, was a minor typo on the link - have fixed above now, thanks for highlighting.

[jonwig] 11/10/2023 08:07

LInk broken? Have mailed them.

[jonwig] 11/10/2023 07:10

Trading update looks OK. ("Challenging" in construction, but that's no surprise.)



H1 results 28/11.

[jonwig] 22/9/2023 12:30

cfro - I don't think the amount of the debt is a problem (Net Debt : EBITDA is about 1.4x), but there is concern about next year's refinancing of the £53m RCF. (The auditors consider it material.)

They say discussions are proceeding well, and should be completed by November. I see no reason why a bank would refuse to refinance, given the interest charge (guess) of £4m, compared with operating cashflow of £80m and, in extremis, a dividend costing £15m.

Of course, the new RCF could well be a bigger spread over SONIA, which seems to be your main point.

Don't ask me why the shares are so low-priced, as I've no idea why. It may be concern over the refinancing, of course.

[cfro] 21/9/2023 14:19

Well, the share price is now about half where it was when it was put up for sale..

What about all that debt here though, isnt that off-putting to any potential acquirer? They say they are in the process of re-financing and will make an announcement before the interims but with rates going up with them owing so much they are not in a great position to negotiate very good terms..

In turn that could be a big drag on future performance especially if the housing market and construction etc fall into a slump.

[essentialinvestor] 14/9/2023 15:20

Fortunate to have held off. Always the chance of a bid?.

[jonwig] 05/9/2023 08:34

It was up for sale, but no-one was interested. Maybe that will change if PE companies renew their interest in UK assets.
It won't be a huge premium, though.

[masurenguy] 05/9/2023 08:27

Excluding the very brief Covid spike down in 2021 this is now at a 10 year low and the shareprice has halved over the past 5 years. Looks great value but what could be the catalyst for a trend reversal ?

No position but added to my watchlist.

[brummy_git] 11/8/2023 07:53

Today's change at the top of Vp plc is a major milestone for the business.

After >25 years, existing CEO Neil Stothard has decided to retire & hang up his boots (Neil was also apparently an accomplished Oxbridge rugby blue in his day).

Transferring the baton to existing CFO Anna Bielby from 1st Sept.

For investors, I have been covering Vp for almost a decade, and believe this astute transition will work like clockwork.

Sure Neil's leadership, strategic direction & commercial acumen will be sorely missed.

However having spoken to Anna on a number of occasions - I equally know she is a highly capable executive, and will successfully lead Vp plc into the next stages of its life.

Better still, the stock at 575p, looks incredibly under-valued, trading on a 7.2x FY'24 PER.

[jonwig] 11/8/2023 07:11

CEO to retire. orderly internal succession:

[essentialinvestor] 09/8/2023 17:33

Thanks, I hold RIII already which has VP as a top holding, may buy a small
amount as a direct holding.

[spooky] 08/8/2023 14:25

What size are you trying to deal in? Six figures would be difficult even in a good market. The spread is 7p for 2500, which is pretty good IMO. Didn't check in anything larger.

[essentialinvestor] 08/8/2023 14:19

Is there anyway to work around the % spread, it's ridiculous.

[jonwig] 28/7/2023 14:40

I bought some the other day. The finances are quite compelling (as the recent Hardman report explains), and they will earn from any construction or homebuilding expansion. Water will need investment.

The proposed sale by the majority holders was unfortunate, and no doubt it's part of the story. I'm happy to collect fairly secure dividends until it re-rates with the market or gives a surprise.

[tradertrev] 21/7/2023 17:04

Hard to see catalysts beyond positive cashflows into UK smallcap funds, which compel portfolio managers to consider new ideas. Sorry, don't know when that happens though!

[kirkie001] 20/7/2023 13:27

And have been "mis-priced" forever, seemingly.

So what's the catalyst for a re-rating? No-one wanted to buy them when they put themselves up for sale last year....