Standard Life Share Discussion Threads

[rjmahan] 24/12/2020 14:22

Thanks Skyship and to you...

[skyship] 24/12/2020 14:08

Wishing you all Health & Happiness for Christmas & The New Year 🙂

[stemis] 23/6/2020 11:15

80% of 70-83p in 7-15 months

[rjmahan] 23/6/2020 06:37

Try uex, liquidating 55p share should return 70-80p in 7-15 months via tender offers.

[skyship] 21/5/2020 16:27

Price to book and increasing moves to transparency and dividends.

I see however that Japan has rallied a little too far, so won't enter at this stage.

[badtime] 21/5/2020 16:13

Why Japan?

[skyship] 21/5/2020 14:27

Well done you - very prescient. Personally I was still 50% invested when the market crashed; but survived moderately well so still slightly up YTD.

Problem is that I'm still 75% CASH and like everyone else wondering where to go to get a return. Went for a few ZDPs, (as posted on my JDT thread) and now looking at how to add a little Japan and a few gold miners in a fund.

[tournesol] 21/5/2020 11:54

Hi Skyship

I went 100% into cash in early-mid Feb, so avoided the Covid pain. Just started to creep back into the market last week but not here.

Good luck

T

[skyship] 21/5/2020 10:08

tournesol - NBDG - hopefully you too exited as Covid developed, personally won't be going back for another bite!

Nothing happening in this sector; though a contact suggested RSE today.

[skyship] 14/2/2020 19:42

Kind of you - hopefully we'll make a small crust...

[tournesol] 14/2/2020 16:31

Skyship

Thanks for that. Over the years I've come to respect and value your insights, have acted on a few and those have all come good.

On that basis I've had a look at NBDG and concluded that it's worth a small allocation.

Thanks and regards

T

[skyship] 14/2/2020 13:26

NK104 - As I said on the JDT thread:

"...distribution targets have slipped in the past; but I hope that the nearer they are to the end of the timetable, the more likely it is that they will now reach their objectives. In the meantime the substantial discount tends to underpin matters."

[skyship] 14/2/2020 13:25

Good to hear from you Tilts

[tiltonboy] 14/2/2020 13:21

The uptick in NAV suggests they have had a liquidity event on one of their larger investments. I might take a few on Monday.

[nk104] 14/2/2020 13:09

Thanks SKYSHIP. I got out even with NBDG a while back.

The issue with going back is whether you trust the managers to actually redeem most of the assets in 2020. They seemed to soft pedal on selling things. The trust factor is definitely in play here.

[rjmahan] 14/2/2020 12:31

Interesting Skyship thanks for this - why not NBDX? Seems slightly lower annualised return but lower risk as less concentrated portfolio.

[skyship] 14/2/2020 10:25

25% CASH, so casting around for VALUE my eyes alighted again on NBDG!

I saw that the NAV unaccountably jumped 3.3% on the 11th February – from 81.82p to 84.56p; then on to 85.02p on the 12th.

The 4th Feb. Qtly Update (for Q4’19) states “The investment manager’s current expectation is to distribute 80%-85% of 31st Dec’19 NAV in 2020 and the remainder in 2021.” – see link below.

With the offer price of 69.1p the NAV discount = 18.73%.

It's easy to do the numbers for the possible return, making quite conservative assumptions:

# Achieve 80p on an average date of end Dec'20: 18.1%

# Achieve 77.5p on an average date of end Dec'20: 14.0%

# Achieve 75p on an average date of end Dec'20: 9.8%

I know the investment management of NBDD has been pretty disastrous; and if NB Partners had any honour they would waive their 1.5% management fee hereon in. That won’t happen of course; but in any event at this low level I’m prepared to make a small allocation.

[flyfisher] 20/9/2019 09:22

LEAF moved a step closer to final liquidation with its announcement after hours yesterday of success in the legal appeal over interest charges. It still has to dispose of two minor investments.

[skyship] 14/9/2019 07:05

Agreed:

a. it stands at notional NAV
b. it's CHINA, so should be avoided!

[flyfisher] 12/9/2019 14:07

I see no prospect for gain in PACL.
Perhaps you could enlighten me.

[finkwot] 11/9/2019 06:43

no mention of PACL?

[flyfisher] 10/9/2019 08:35

Neither lxb, jil, tji, or eret represented certain value. Lxb may have looked the most certain to do so, yet it produced a loss for me. Jil and tji produced a gain and eret a stellar gain. Of those I mentioned, one or two will likely be profitable situations, of course the problem is knowing which.

If crs get their way then alm will be also be going into liquidation.

Perhaps it is worth deleting a few charts and adding a couple of new ones.

[skyship] 08/9/2019 09:02

None of those companies represent the certain values of the past. Pretty slim pickings this year unless one held LEAF.

We may have to wait for the long-expected Market shake-out before opportunities arise again.

[flyfisher] 05/9/2019 22:05

ALF, management fee 500k pa + 5% of distributions, annual running costs $1.2m seems excessive, spread too wide when i looked at it. It seems to be a bet on the outcome of vision funds, for which i cannot find any progress and which has been written down significantly in recent periods.

PVCS, seems a binary bet on whether they can sell the residual business, there has been some talks of an mbo and assuming they can sell it for a nominal amount, then that would leave a clean wind up situation with around 98p residual value. Spread was reasonable when i bought.