Met Ltd Nm Share Discussion Threads

[energyi] 23/6/2006 08:20

Here's the ultra- long term chart for the Dow Jones Average



It uses 100 years of Dow data, and some older indices before that.

For an update & comments, have a look at: GEI

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[energyi] 06/6/2006 13:57

ARCH CRAWFORD - excerpt:
The BRADLEY Model year high came in on May 18.
There is a secondary high around July 27 (reported in error as June
27 last month). Down after that until November 27.
CRASH LIKELY IN THE SEPT-OCTOBER FRAME!

[energyi] 19/5/2006 20:22

(From Peter Eliades, as interviewed by Ike Iossiv)

Four Year cycle is rolling over, and a decline to Dow-8,000 by late 2006 or early 2007 is possible.

Whenever discount rate reaches 6% for the first time, the market is in big trouble- it tends to be a Death Knell for the stock market. Each time ¡V of the seven times it happened- there has been a BIG DECLINE, with the average decline of 30% over one year or so:

sometimes quickly, like 1929 (only first part of the decline was in the average),
sometimes slowly over a year or so

McClellan Summation index went negative this week (below 1,000), and that is typically where the big declines come (within weeks or months), because this shows that momentum has been flagging for some months.

Unprecedented long term sentiment indicators, suggest that the rally off the next 4 year cyclical low will be very modest.

[energyi] 15/5/2006 06:07

EGG-ON-FACE FORECAST??
===========

Judge Jury - Mon, 27 Mar 06 :
Housing pessimists are wrong but have their uses
By GAVIN CAMERON, JOHN MUELLBAUER and ANTHONY MURPHY
27 March 2006
Financial Times

Bubble? What bubble? The last Economic Outlook from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development argues that UK house prices are overvalued by 30 per cent, or even more. It also warns of the danger of a protracted period of house price falls, with dire implications for consumer spending. The OECD is not alone. But these pessimists are wrong.

If there were a bubble, there would exist a systematic, albeit temporary, deviation of prices from fundamentals. Our research shows, instead, that fundamentals adequately explain the current level of house prices.

Like many others, the OECD appears to base its conclusions on two pieces of unreliable evidence. One is the ratio of house prices to rents. The second is an equation estimated by the International Monetary Fund in which housing supply, the population's changing age structure, shifts in UK credit conditions and nominal interest rates play no role. It is hardly surprising that this equation turns out to be useless.

In our research, however, we do take these and other factors into account. We also model prices at the regional level. The great advantage of the latter is that it generates more precise estimates and more robust conclusions.

Our econometric model satisfactorily explains price fluctuations from 1972 to 2003. It captures the effects of income, the size and age composition of the population, the housing stock and interest rates. It also builds in the effect of recent house price growth, including transmission from leading regions to others. We distinguish between short-run and long-run effects of house-building and population growth. We allow for the effects of stock markets and for differences between regions. We also examine the effect of today's easier credit conditions. These not only have a direct effect on real prices, but also change the relative importance of real and nominal interest rates: the former become more important and the latter less so. If we estimate our model for data up to 1996 and forecast the subsequent period, we generate predictions that are in line with the rapid price rises that happened. Our conclusion is that we can readily explain the evolution of prices in this recent period by lower interest rates, higher real incomes per household, higher population growth (partly from immigration) and low rates of house-building.

If we compare what actually happened with what our model says would have occurred, we can state for example that house prices would have been 25 per cent lower in 2003 if real incomes per household had stagnated between 1998 and 2003. For 1988-99, however, now almost ancient history, we do find some symptoms of a policy-induced bubble.

We also examined house price developments for 2004-10 on a range of assumptions about possible developments in income, population, house-building, inflation and interest rates. We find that only quite dismal scenarios - more dismal than any now contemplated by mainstream forecasters - would produce falls in nominal house prices and, even then, these would be small. London and the south are the regions where such scenarios would have the largest effects.

If we assume just a mild slowdown in the economy for a couple of years, which is more pessimistic than today's consensus, house prices still rise in nominal terms. The figures for 2006 would be about a 3 per cent rise for London and 5 per cent overall. If we assume a gloomy scenario, in which inflation rises, interest rates increase by 1.5 percentage points, real per capita income does not grow and the stock market stagnates before resuming growth in 2008, house prices in London and the south decline by about 1 per cent in 2006 and 2007. Needless to say, still gloomier, though less probable, scenarios can produce national house price declines. The risks may be low, but they are not zero.

Since cash from property investment trusts will be injected into the market in 2006 and the stock market has also been so strong, the deterioration in housing affordability is likely to à-continue.

The believers in the bubble were wrong. They are still wrong. But, paradoxically, their alarmism may have helped to prevent the bubble they fear from developing. It has not, or at least not yet.

Gavin Cameron is at Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford. John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy are at Nuffield College, Oxford. Full article at www.housingoutlook.co.uk

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[energyi] 10/5/2006 08:27

Nice Chart from Bob Carver



The Dow is usually the last to top, so that's why the money is beginning to concentrate in it. It's not shown on this chart, but Money Flow started to reverse from down to up just ahead of the last cycle low. We had many days of net selling going into the low (which reversed into buying just a couple of days before the low) and I think we'll probably see quite a bit of selling going into the final high, whereever that might be (could be this week if the geo storms are strong).

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[energyi] 09/5/2006 21:34

(from GEI)

On Jan. 14, 2000,
the DJIA reached an all-time high of 11,750.30 before closing at 11,723

This week, as the Dow approaches a retest of that level, the other indices are lagging behind, suggesting a TOP is being put in place :

Getting Close-----------------: S&P 500--------------: Nasdaq 100-----------:
Mon.: 11,584.54 ............. : 1,324.66 ............: 1,715.23 ............:
Tue.: 11,639.77 +55.23 +0.48%: 1,325.14 +0.48 +0.04%: 1,711.17 -4.06 -0.24%:
Wed.:
Thu.:
Fri.:

CHARTS showing / Relative Performance (as posted by HollandPark)

[energyi] 09/5/2006 21:33

(from GEI)

On Jan. 14, 2000,
the DJIA reached an all-time high of 11,750.30 before closing at 11,723

This week, as the Dow approaches a retest of that level, the other indices are lagging behind, suggesting a TOP is being put in place :

Getting Close----------------: S&P 500--------------: Nasdaq 100-----------:
Mon.: 11,584.54 .............: 1,324.66 ............: 1,715.23 ............:
Tue.: 11,639.77 +55.23 +0.48%: 1,325.14 +0.48 +0.04%: 1,711.17 -4.06 -0.24%:
Wed.: 11,642.65 + 2.88 + 0.02% :1,322.85 -2.29 -0.17% : 1,694.82 -16.35 -0.96%:
Thu. : 11,500.73-141.92 - 1.22% :1,305.92-16.93 -1.28% : 1,657.48 -37.34 -2.20%
Fri.. : 11,381.31-119.42 - 1.38% :1,291.05-14.87 -1.14% : 1,635.81 -21.67 -1.31%

CHARTS showing / Relative Performance (as posted by HollandPark)

[jonc] 24/3/2006 13:35

Aleman,

It appears that the deadlines from 2008 will be 30th Sep for paper returns and 30th Nov for online filing. Payment dates are to remain unchanged at present but obviously there ius an opening fir the Chavcellor to bring payment dates forward to waste on Skules 'n Ospitals.

JC

[aleman] 24/3/2006 10:47

Has the date for the IR to calculate your tax been brought forward or is that still end of September. This will be another of the CHAVcellor's stealth taxes. He will be trying to get a few £m in early to hide how much extra he is borrowing, but causing a chaotic paper chase in the process. He probably actually intends to raise more fines for late submission.

[energyi] 23/3/2006 10:44

PQ WALL.
The market may keep rising until last minute, into summer. Like parallel markets like 1929. They "hope will fall... like a hippo."
Low due around June 12th, and could keep rising after that.
But late in the year, "the market could drop in half"
Dow-11500 is a "lead-pipe cinch." 11752 is better than 50/50.
Only index with a chance for new highs, is the Dow. The others will not come anywhere near their highs.
Bonds: He may close his shorts
Oil : May have broken down today
XAU : Short now, but "has his track shoes on"

[jonc] 23/3/2006 08:33

Any accountants spot that the filing date for SA returns is to be brought forward by 4 months to Sept 30th.

That is gonna change the balance of workload during the year so that we will need peak production during the summer holiday season.

Doh.

[m.t.glass] 22/3/2006 14:13

Overall - just not radical enough for me.
Nothing that will generate momentum in any of the areas where it's needed. Doesn't get anything moving.

[joeboy] 22/3/2006 14:03

nice piccies, folks!! and more than a tad more interesting than the Brown flannel, methinks, unless you are head of a school, and soon able to buy gas-guzzlers on the cheap!!

[aleman] 22/3/2006 13:58

I think everyone should give Gordon a clap.

[aleman] 22/3/2006 13:43

Market's response - completely unmoved. The nasty stuff will no doubt be in the RED BOOK(trembles with fear).

[fft] 22/3/2006 13:42

he only does it cos he likes Gordon

;-)

[m.t.glass] 22/3/2006 13:42

Good punchy performance by Cameron. Will win over some of the uncertain tories I guess.

[pip_uk] 22/3/2006 13:41

Aleman.
I would just like to thank you for a brilliant summary
cheers.

[aleman] 22/3/2006 13:39

Missed bits - £100m for enterprise capital funds, whatever they are. £1bn for energy and environmental research institute.

[aleman] 22/3/2006 13:37

So you're a fan of his then?

[samg99] 22/3/2006 13:34

Just seen this thread - great stuff.

Here's my comment from the Naked Trader thread earlier:

Just been listening to Brown droning on. Reminds me of a hit during my misspent youth which had the line "Gordon is a Moron". I would also add the words: smug, extremely boring, sanctimonious, vindictive, tendentious, dishonest, chippy, pompous, long-winded; plus a few which I could not possibly use on a thread intended for family reading ;-)

[m.t.glass] 22/3/2006 13:34

Hey Aleman - you were never gonna like it regardless ;o)

[aleman] 22/3/2006 13:33

Looks like they must be all stealth taxes again.