ZPG Share Discussion Threads

[glynnef] 02/5/2007 09:38

ZPG NAV continues its downward slide as ZPGZ NAV take all the growth. Not unexpected, but where will it end up? Another way to look at it is :
after allowing for the full 75p payment to ZPGZ holders, there is about 2p NAV left today for ZPG, and ZPG will get all the future growth. I hold ZPGZ & ZPGU.


THE ZERO PREFERENCE GROWTH TRUST PLC

The Company announces that the bid price Net Asset Values, including current
period revenue, at 30th April 2007 were:

per Ordinary unit 71.53p

per Growth share 7.05p

per Zero Dividend Preference share 64.48p

Gross assets less current liabilities £14.49m

[poacher45] 18/4/2007 10:48

I think REOZ look a very good bet now that Aberdeen have had to compensate them and I am sure UBS will follow suit.
Just to make you laugh even more we have about 18 players who are either injured or unavailable and the home derby game against Ipswich is on Sunday. The average age last night was 24 and that was including Dublin at 37. Still it is giving the youngsters a chance.

[tiltonboy] 18/4/2007 07:07

Glynne,

They have a couple of redemptions in a couple of weeks, so perhaps they spent some of that money. Wouldn't be surprised if they added to REOZ.

Don't expect to hear from poacher today, after last night's results!!!

tiltonboy

[glynnef] 18/4/2007 02:20

They have actually increased borrowings by £0.5m. I wonder what they bought ??

GF.

[tiltonboy] 03/4/2007 16:16

poacher,

Have ZPG got any tax losses?

In any event they fetch very little these days.

tiltonboy

[poacher45] 03/4/2007 16:11

Now that Aberdeen have compensated Real Estate Opportunities with UBS almost certain to follow. That should help a bit. At the wind up stage could all the capital losses be an advantage to another company.

[tiltonboy] 03/4/2007 14:07

Another two holdings disappear this month, representing 10% of the portfolio. I presume we will see another chunk of debt being repaid. A further rise in interest rates in the next month will not help bond yields, and may put a bit of pressure on some of the longer dated ZDP issues.

tiltonboy

[tiltonboy] 22/3/2007 11:40

Glynne,

I rang them as soon as the announcement came out. They have repaid £300K.

tiltonboy

[glynnef] 22/3/2007 10:47

I think they must have repaid some more of the loan but forgotten to tell us about it as gross assets have dropped considerably. GF.


Company Zero Pref Growth Tst
TIDM ZPG
Headline Net Asset Value(s)
Released 10:03 22-Mar-07
Number PRNUK-2203

THE ZERO PREFERENCE GROWTH TRUST PLC

The Company announces that the bid price Net Asset Values, including current
period revenue, at 20 March 2007 were:

per Ordinary unit 71.00p

per Growth share 7.37p

per Zero Dividend Preference share 63.63p

Gross assets less current liabilities £13.96m
Fair value of the debt is not materially different from the par value.

[poacher45] 15/3/2007 13:49

I am still hopeful that the maturities will help to keep the value up. I notice in the interim results they have allowed for £70,000 towards the investment managers final 12% bonus.
I am also wondering where they have invested the money from Investors Capital which wound up at the end of Feb.

[tiltonboy] 15/3/2007 13:31

poacher,

The high hurdle rate is starting to take it's toll on the Growth shares, and with hardening bond yields holding back performance, the NAV has started to slip.

Since 6.2.07 the portfolio valuation has remained the same(adjusting for debt repayment), but the Growth shares NAV has fallen by 4.4%.

It is probably unfair to take a five week view, but in the context that there are only 1.4 yrs to run, it is still a fair slug of time.

I'm still hoping that there will be an uplift in REOZ, but as it only represents a small part of the portfolio, the effect on the overall NAV will be muted.

tiltonboy

[tiltonboy] 14/3/2007 10:39

poacher,

Huckerby has done that to us in the past.

McSheff hasn't played well recently, but we still missed his width.

From looking as if we were going to score with every attack during NOV/DEC, we now can't buy a goal.

tiltonboy

[poacher45] 14/3/2007 10:08

One moment of pure magic when Huckerby, ran from our half, beat 4 players and put the ball in the net with your goalkeeper rooted to the spot. Although you had more of the play in the second half I cannot remenber our goalkeeper having to make a save.

[tiltonboy] 13/3/2007 22:02

poacher,

Told you I wasn't confident. To make matters worse both Derby and Sunderland got last gasp equalisers. At least they both dropped home points.

Markets not looking good again.

tiltonboy

[tiltonboy] 12/3/2007 18:43

poacher,

lol...

The game at our place was probably the lowest point, and SB could easily have gone. I'm not confident of our chances, but that's probably nerves in what is becoming an exciting end of season.

The Bear Stearns Zero's are already covered in excess of 2X, and a with a yield of 6.53%, I can't see there being too much short term upside, over and above their natural accrual. Equity patnership is covered over 3X, but has an identical yield to BS.

tiltonboy

[poacher45] 12/3/2007 17:46

tiltonboy
Norwich 3 Birmingham 0
Looks as if we will get a bit more for Bear Stearns. They are going to issue more ordinary shares which will make the zeros better covered hence a better price.

[tiltonboy] 11/2/2007 14:42

poacher,

Poor game, but we won.

Here goes.

Net assets £11.23m.

The portfolio yields less than 7% Gross, and less than 6% net of management/other charges.

So...in 18 months, at a 6% net yield, the portfolio would be valued at £12.26m. The Zero's entitlement comes out at £10.66m, leaving £1.6m. The managment fee of £128K, finally leaves £1.47m for Growth shareholders, or a fraction under 5p.

The unknowns are the holdings in REOA and REOZ. However these two holdings account for only 5.3% of the total portfolio. If REOA were to have another substantial uplift(possible), I do not argue that the terminal NAV could be above 5p, but as the portfolio stands at the moment it will struggle.

As we get closer to wind-up, I can see the manager being more prudent, and taking less risks. Debt is being repaid, and further interest rate rises will not help the portfolio at all.

tiltonboy

[poacher45] 11/2/2007 10:58

Management fee = 1.8million less 12% .216million. Therefore funds available 1.584 million equivalent to 5.28p. Hope you win.

[tiltonboy] 11/2/2007 10:37

poacher,

You have posted a number of figures, but do not explain how they will achieve:

" Absolute min to be made over next 18months 1.235300million
11% of 11.23million."

You have made one glaring omission, in that there is a management fee of 12% of the terminal NAV of the Growth Shares.

I'm off to the match now, and will post more in depth later.

tiltonboy

[poacher45] 11/2/2007 10:19

FACTS
Gross Assets 14.53million
Bank Loans 3.30million
Net Assets 11.23million
Zero requirements Aug 2008 10.657123million
Surplus .570 million
Absolute min to be made over next 18months 1.235300million
11% of 11.23million. Total Surplus 1.805300million
Amount needed to pay 5p per share 1.500million
Tell me where my calculations are wrong?

[tiltonboy] 10/2/2007 17:11

poacher,

Can I turn the question round. How do you expect it to be more than 5p?

Unless REOA have another significant upward movement, I think 5p will be a tough call.

Come back with some hard analysis, and we can discuss.

tiltonboy

[poacher45] 10/2/2007 12:12

We are three months further on and still the asset value is the same. This calender year 36% of the fund will liquidate and since November there have been some unexpected gains. I dont see how you now expect it to be less than 5p.

[tiltonboy] 02/2/2007 15:04

Glynne,

Agreed, but with the CULS being classed as equity, the Z's are now ahead of that class.

I prefer to watch the Ord share price as my guide.

tiltonboy

[glynnef] 02/2/2007 14:45

I emailed REO asking what, if any, the impact on REOZ shares would be if they convert to a property company rather than an investment company. I got a reply from Angus Pottinger at Invesco Perpetual with a copy of the EGM circular, saying it was all passed by shareholders at the EGM. Didn't really answer my question though. REOZ are looking cheap, but they are a fair bit down the pecking order of prior claims aren't they, with the new borrowings ?

GF.