ZPG Share Discussion Threads

[glynnef] 02/2/2007 14:20

Factsheet to 31st Dec06 and latest quarterly comment has been published on the premierfunds website.

Net assets up 3.4% in the qtr, a great return. Largely due to exceptionals - sales of Exeter Securities, BFS Managed Properties. Also steep rise in REO CULS (REOA) and some canny buying/repurchase of REOZ. Mentions also that the FD/AIC Zero index was up 2.2% in the quarter.



regards,
Glynne.

[glynnef] 12/1/2007 10:14

Poacher,

The latest NAV statement stated the position as at 31st December. It is much the smaller payout (only 1.6% of the ZPG portfolio), but the cash from Premium Trust is to be distributed week commencing 8th Jan, so they wound't have seen it at that time, and may not have it even now. I am still waiting for my payment in redemption of PTTI.

GF.

[poacher45] 12/1/2007 09:45

Just remenber they have got £2 million from Exeter and Premium. So they must have invested a million. However it makes it more difficult. If the rate goes to 5.75% as forecast that means they will be 7.1%.

[glynnef] 11/1/2007 23:44

Tilton,

The last accounts say the bank loan is 1.35% over LIBOR rate. Does this mean that after today's rate rise they would be paying around 6.75% ? As you say, tough to borrow at that rate and make money on zeros with only 20 months to run. Happy to hold ZPGZ and ZPGU - not buying any more.

GF.

[tiltonboy] 11/1/2007 22:30

Glynne,

It is interesting to see that the company has repaid a substantial amount of debt recently. From this I would glean, that opportunities to make returns over and above the interest cost, are becoming increasingly difficult. After todays interest rate rise, it will be even more difficult.

tiltonboy

[glynnef] 11/1/2007 20:59

spitsonline are today calculating the NAV at 8.01p as at yesterday. Would be nice to think they are right, but it seems a bit high. REOA down again today.

Splitsonline now has a more realistic NRY figure for ZPGU: 7.4% for 5% asset growth. At the time of my post 378, they were saying over 12% !

GF.

[tiltonboy] 30/12/2006 15:47

poacher,

The NAV will have benefited from the rise in REOA, plus the sale at a premium to share price of BFS Managed Properties.

Earnshaw to Everton is the talk at the moment!!!

Have a good New Year.

tiltonboy

[poacher45] 30/12/2006 10:58

Growth share asset value now 7.91p after the Exeter pay out and still 5-10000 to come from Exeter.

[tiltonboy] 27/12/2006 11:16

Had a long chat with Paul Smith this morning.

Has recently repurchased some REOZ, but is not back up to previous holding. Happy to run REOA for the time being. Total REO exposure = 5% of portfolio.

Sold the holding in BFS Managed Props at a big premium to the current price, which is pleasing, especially as the Z's are going to be delisted.

Has paid back some debt, following recent redemptions, but happy to draw back down when oppportunities present themselves.

He suggested that my 5p terminal NAV target for the Growth Shares was "demanding", but by working around the edges of the portfolio, they would try and add value.

titlonboy

[poacher45] 27/12/2006 07:19

They increased there holding in REOA shortly before the increase. Next valuation will definately include Exeter which paid out on 22/12/06. Perhaps even Premiun will pay out then as well.

[tiltonboy] 26/12/2006 11:07

Glynne,

You are perfectly correct; I think I was using the % holding the Z's as my base point.

I'm not ruling out a rise of that magnitude in the CULS, but having risen 20 points in the last couple of weeks, it may be a big ask to see them rise another 40 points. In addition the holding may be sold along the way, if it hasn't been already.

The next NAV announcement may give a clue as to any changes.

tiltonboy

[glynnef] 25/12/2006 07:04

tilton,
0.5p rise in NAV due to REOA alone requires REOA TO rise by over 40% I think. REOA holding is only 2.1% of the port, or around £340K at last valuation. 30M ZPG shares.

Happy Christmas,
GF.

[tiltonboy] 24/12/2006 10:05

poacher,

But I've only increased it to 5.5p. Obviously, if they retain their holding in REOA and they continue to rise substantially then there is now a chance.

As the portfolio currently stands only REOA can get them anywhere near your 7p target.

There are now less than 20 months to wind-up, and I think it's too tall an order, but as a holder of ZPGU, and more significantly a holder of REOA, I will happily concede that I was wrong, and that you called the price.

tiltonboy

[poacher45] 24/12/2006 09:27

After poo-pooing my estimate of 7p less than 2 months later you have increased yours by 25%. I wonder what yours will be next christmas.

[tiltonboy] 23/12/2006 18:24

After selling their holding in REOZ, I wonder if ZPG have retained the CULS. REO Ords and CULS have had an incredible couple of weeks, rising from 120p ish to just over 140p.

If they have retained their holding, I think we could see a 0.5p lift in the NAV at the next calculation.

I might even have to upgrade my terminal NAV forecast to 5.5p at this rate.

tiltonboy

[glynnef] 07/12/2006 10:56

The relentless 12.6% PA growth in the NAV of ZPGZ is at best (for ZPG holders) holding down the NAV of ZPG, or even reducing it. ZPG is now worth about 1p plus all the capital growth in the next 20 months.

splitsonline redemption yields look a bit odd to me - at 5% portfolio growth to redemption :

ZPGZ 8.2%
ZPG -1.34%

add them together and they say :
ZPGU 12.35% !

I know it is done on mid prices and the units are are little cheaper than the sum of the parts, but does this make any sense ?
regards,
GF.

[tiltonboy] 06/11/2006 12:09

poacher,

The defeat to your lot appears to have galvanised our season, though it didn't look as if it would happen after that game.

The end September portfolio is out.

The buy back of Ords/Units, will add negligible value overall.

tiltonboy

[poacher45] 06/11/2006 12:02

tiltonboy,
Have to tell you I am a Canary.
The list that I printed was everything as far as I know that matures by Dec2007.
I am a little dissapointed with Exeter for the large drop in asset value as the majority of their sales were fixed income shares. I am now awaiting the report and Exeters final value. Extra value could be created by buying back ordinary shares or units.

[tiltonboy] 03/11/2006 16:15

poacher,

Any further consideration to our debate last weekend?

I note the latest NAV from EXSZ of 159p. With wind-up costs taken into consideration, we may now be looking nearer 156p as a terminal value.

It looks as if ZPG have increased their holding in RLU, on a 7.3% yield.

Thoughts welcomed.

tiltonboy

[tiltonboy] 28/10/2006 15:08

poacher,

Back from St Andrews with three points in the bag.

The list that you first printed missed the holdings of Royal London(6th largest holding), JZ Equity(7th largest holding), and REO(10th largest holding)

Putting these holdings to one side, perhaps you would give me your ideas on how the managers will get the Growth shares to a 7p share price given the timeframe, and the current portfolio.

tiltonboy

[poacher45] 28/10/2006 10:51

www.splitsonline.co.uk.
Try that but in any case your link gives the same answer. The only difference is I had to use the last report for the two smallest holdings.

[tiltonboy] 28/10/2006 10:43

poacher,

Your link didn't work.Try this one, which gives the position at 31st August. The end September fact sheet should be out soon.



tiltonboy

[poacher45] 28/10/2006 10:11

I think you have got the old update.I look at this site:-
hope that works.When I look at that site I then click on ZPG ANd when the box comes up click on fact sheet
etc.

[tiltonboy] 28/10/2006 08:23

poacher,

I don't know where you got those figures from.

I used the manager's factsheet, last updated 31st August 2006.

tiltonboy

[poacher45] 27/10/2006 22:11

Think your figures are a little out.
Fund 30/06/06
Exeter 10.27
Investors Cap 8.8
N.S.F 7.7
Blue Chip 6.9
Recovery 4.5
Premier Absolute 2.4
Premium Trust 1.6
Premier UK Dual 1.2
Martin Currie Inc1.2
Mat by Dec 2007 44.57