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|Does anyone here have any views on what the outlook might be like for SA?|
|So many junior miners heading off there.
Lonmin growing, and stability cemented by a watertight constitution.
I almost left to go there last year but personal circumstances prevented me, now seriously re-contemplating my decision.
Is it time to head south?|
I've been following South Africa Politically and Economically for quite a while now (my native homeland)
With all these new mining operations setting up base in South Africa, The impending Soccer World Cup, the relative Political and Economic stability, is now the time to start looking at SA in a new light?
Subjectivity for my homeland aside, I strongly believe there is a case to be made for active investment in South Africa if not economically the socially.
A strong vibrant nation with leadership to match (despite the nay saying doom and gloom expat community's disgruntled rantings :))
Sunny SA anyone?|
|Good to hear that you have made a decision. Best of luck with the sale and the move back home. I sometimes think that too many people here put too much emphasis on how much they can make rather than how they can enjoy their life. I hope everything works out for you.|
Firstly, apologies for the delayed reply, my estate agent keeps prying me away from my screen.
Secondly, I'm most greatful for the excellent post above in response to mine.
I've decided to accept the offer and get the ball rolling. I suppose only time will tell if I've made a good move or not.
But whether it turns out to be a financial disaster or success is, I have figured out, only seconadry to what our hearts desire.
The funny thing with Mbeki is that when he came into power, most democratic folk didn't like him because he was so unlike Mandela and he seemed to have a very shrewd and cunning demeanour about him. It was one of the reasons I felt South Africa was doomed and held little hope for the coming years. He hasn't succeeded in delivering completely, but he has failed to disappoint.
Who knows with politics and politicians eh?
They're more enigmatic than the markets!
Anyway, I'll be sure to keep you posted via this BB as to how things pan out.
(Have decided not to keep a pad active here-too much hassle, but will hold some sterling and equity instead).|
|Congrats on the offer.
I'm really caught between the two arguments on interest rates and housing. On one side, yes housing is overvalued when compared to the historical average however I have questioned on this thread http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=8783805
whether the historical average is still correct. It has been average salary vs average price = 3 to 3.5 but with more households having two incomes, I feel that average household income vs average price is now a better measure. This brings the current over valuation of housing down to around 4 to 4.5 depending upon the figures you use and could explain some of the recent boom in housing. Still overvalued but not necessarily a 'bubble'. A rising population and limited supply of property could also help to keep prices up.
On the bear side, houses are overvalued by which ever measure you use so risk/reward doesn't necessarily look favourable for a capital gain. A 'crash' could well happen given the right circumstances.
As for interest rates, inflation looks as if it is starting to hit the published figures, which is what the central banks target. Therefore, we may see some rises however, I don't think that it is a given than rates will rise as fast or as high as people think. The US may be content to let their currency weaken by slowing rate rises thus helping their exporters and trade deficit. And I don't believe that any central bank would raise rates to curb inflation if it meant that economic growth in their respective region was stopped. I think given the choice of high rates with no economy or lower rates and higher inflation, I think the latter would be chosen to keep the economy moving forward. Nobody wants a lot of unemployed people...
If you do decide to let, my only advice is to make sure that you can cover the mortgage payments even if it is empty for long periods. Do the sums.
I believe metals will continue to rise in value which is a good thing for the SA economy. As to whether the Rand is stable, I think a look back over the past 5-10 year graph will show that it is anything but. You could therefore decide to put a lump sum overseas in a currency backed by gold such as Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar or Aussie Dollar.
I'm also not convinced that the government is stable. I'm concerned with Mbeki's 'sympathies' toward Mugabi and his policies and, while Mbeki might be fairly level headed, any successor might not be and I can't see the ANC losing power for quite a while. I hope that they can steer SA to a brighter future but I don't believe that it is a forgone conclusion.
The world cup will be a big boost for the economy and I almost kept our flat for that very reason, being a mere 100m from Newlands Stadium. However, I decided against it for various reasons. Recent articles in the press are challenging the billions of Rand that are being spent on new stadiums when people a few kilometres away are living in squatter camps.
South Africa does have a real future if properly governed and I believe that it could become the powerhouse of Africa. It just needs time, not just to develop itself but also to cleanse itself of its history which is holding it back.
But don't listen to me as these are just my opinions. Do what is best for you and your family.|
Just got an offer on my house today incidentally.
got that sinking feeling, but when i decide not to go back I get that depressed feeling.
With interest rates likely to go up and up, do you think house prices might fall and is there a foreseeable major decline in the letting market if we decide to buy a flat to let and then leave.
thanks in advance.
ps. I see the south african economy strengthening in the coming years based on a stable govt. stable currency, high metal prices and 2010 world cup.
what's your take on things?|
Wouldn't go back were it not for the fact that I have a baby girl and no other family here, so finding it hard to physically cope.
Miss home as well.
Crime rate putting me off more than the cost of living.
|not sure if it's the right decision financially though|
|I'm planning on going back to durbs - selling my house in the uk.|
|Depends upon your time frame. Over an extended period, I can see the Rand falling further. A strong Rand is not healthy for South Africa's developing economy, especially with large parts of the work force dependent upon the deep mines where a stong ZAR/$ removes any profit from the operation. Politically, it would not work well to have large parts of the work force out of work, especially with Zimbabwean tensions spilling over into the North of South Africa. That could escalate.
Shorter term, I'm hoping for the Rand to strengthen as I am selling my flat in Cape Town and want to repatriate the money. The recent fall has cost a few pennies...|
|Where to now for the Rand?
Any Educated Guesses?|
|Have you read the Prospectus?
If you have then your a fool...If you havnt then I suggest you do read it!
|hahahaha, whatever!!! LGB!!!! they'd have to have a taxable income stream for that to make any difference and they don't so it doesn't!! fool!!!|
I hold 4 mill shares in GPC
Govt giving smaller exploration companies better tax relief...means EVEN better value for money. Use your brain...
|you bought at more than 1p and at the time said news on friday and every friday since!!!!|
I have good news...
Wait and see SIPP...WAIT and SEE..
These WILL not be sub 1p by the end of the year....
WATCH THIS SPACE!
|no you fool!! katie's locked in!! hahahahaha!!!!!|
|sipp.....awww still locked in ha ha|
|oh dear katie, averaging down eh?!! hahahaha, news last friday? the friday before or the friday before that???? hahahahahahahahahaha LGB hahahahaha!!!!|
|There is my trade 1mill MORE!
I will be buying some more today ...watch this space..
Holding NOW 4million GPC...
You KNOW its right!
|quick get over to gpc thread.....
Watch the BIG deal go through today!!