Zanaga Iron Ore Share Discussion Threads

[chesty1] 08/12/2016 16:08

I am in wafm and very interested now in this one.

[gta5] 08/12/2016 15:49

Nice one topaz, soon then..:)

[topazfrenzy] 08/12/2016 14:27

GTA

From the Half Yearly results dated 29 September 2016:

"Permitting

The application for the Environmental Permit for the Project's first phase of development has been lodged with the RoC Ministry of Environment and the Project team believes that this is likely to be received during the second half of the 2016 fiscal year."

[gta5] 08/12/2016 12:18

If I'm reading this correctly the Feasibility study suggests a final product of 66% FE in phase1 and 67.5% FE in phase 2 (a few numbers even suggest 68.5%)
at todays prices that should command a premium price and great position on the pecking order... at 750Yuan it would translate into $110USD per tonne.
()
with an estimated FOB cost of just over 31USD per tonne It looks to me that this project should be quite attractive even at less than half of today's prices...

Also, from what I can see the only real hurdle before the project could be started is the environmental license...
On the website it's mentioned that it's been applied for..
"..Environmental Permit application for Stage One lodged with the Ministry of Environment"
does anyone know if there is a defined/transparent process for this? (or is it as murky and opaque as I'm imagining it to be...?)

GTA

[topazfrenzy] 08/12/2016 07:40

Iron ore at 2016 highs, in fact at 2014 prices so ZIOC should now be over 20p looking at the charts, and the project is way more advanced now.

The market has certainly missed this one so far, expect a huge re-rate soon!

[topazfrenzy] 07/12/2016 16:16

Only 75 million shares in free float so to HOLD is key. Just wait until the herd wakes up to this one ...

[nash81] 07/12/2016 15:08

BUYING AND ADDING.

wait till 2017 and its boom time for iron ore and ZIOC.

and thats only 3 weeks away!

[topazfrenzy] 07/12/2016 07:47

I doubt it too richie. Is this your target, 50p?

2017 should be exciting here, when the environmental licence comes in then serious offers should be forthcoming one would hope, if not before. I think Glencore may exercise their rights and take over Zioc's half, at what price remains to be seen, but let's just say that at where the share price sits now, huge money is to be made here.

[richie666] 06/12/2016 20:10

Topaz I doubt Elphick would sell for less than 50p.

[topazfrenzy] 06/12/2016 10:49

I fully agree richie and GTA, this is ready to go again.

Here's another article I saw posted:


Glencore seem to be buying up the bits they don't own in their Joint Ventures, so with them having first dibs on Zanaga, it looks increasingly likely that an offer for ZIOC's share will be materialising as soon as the environmental licence is in place, which should be soon.

BOOM times coming here, buy and hold for sure!

Targets anyone? £1? £2?

[richie666] 06/12/2016 04:13

Stock price looks ready to go again to me.

[nash81] 30/11/2016 23:08

topaz

you are right, directors probably took their shares at even higher than 50p. i just copied paste earlier.

nevertheless, even at 50p we are still cheap compared to the assets that we have

[topazfrenzy] 27/11/2016 10:54

nash81

The company was floated at £1.56, not sure where you get that Directors took their shares at 50p?

Glencore pay for most of the running costs and all studies etc, therefore they have first option to buy ZIOC out I understand. Glencore has paid for the FS and other stuff, amounting to over $350M so far.

The Zanaga project in effect is worth billions so the share price for ZIOC is almost guaranteed to recover dramatically as/if iron ore pushes upwards, which it seems to be doing nicely so far. The market has decided that basic commodities is the place to be and this new cycle could last for a decade at least, with new highs to come across the board.

I see 50p as the first fair value stop on the way to the £££;s

Crazy for anyone to sell at this level, this is surely just the beginning!

GLA

[gta5] 25/11/2016 12:44

I wonder if there is more of a correction to come? Has it gone up too much too quickly?
I can see Iron ore is hovering at 77USD, but everyone seems to agree that it's all due to market speculation and that a retrace is only a matter of time due to existing vast supply and even more coming online soon...
hmm.. I've put my buy orders at 5 and 6p... Lets see.
GTA.

[nash81] 23/11/2016 14:10

nicely said, copied from LSE

===================

ZIOC mostly owned by directors. they owned around 70% of ZIOC, hence very low free float.

and directors took their shares when share price was around 50p approx.

so, am expecting share price will slowly recover back to 50p very soon.

iron ore cycle slowly bouncing up... and when its boom time, so does ZIOC

[mustau] 23/11/2016 08:40

Good start hopefully sustained.

[richie666] 22/11/2016 15:26

Tis indeed Topaz but go have a cold shower and crack a cold beer afterwards. Stay cool!

[topazfrenzy] 22/11/2016 14:19

The 'long' journey you are talking about richie is when production starts etc, if ZIOC has not been bought out by then (highly unlikely) then we'd be talking£3 per share surely. I think it's definitely reason to be excited don't you think!

[topazfrenzy] 22/11/2016 14:16

LOL richie666!

[richie666] 22/11/2016 14:11

Calm down Topaz - there is a long journey ahead. Let the project and the stock price do the talking.

[topazfrenzy] 22/11/2016 14:06

Found this on the LSE board courtesy of Euclid55.

The project is now way more advanced than at that date, such as the FS is completed and paid for by Glencore/Xstrata plus the mining convention in place.

From the report: "Our base-case valuation of the Zanaga project is US$4.3bn in current money terms (discounted to FY11 at 10% to account for the opportunity cost of capital). In our valuation we used a 10% nominal discount rate and applied a 25% haircut to ZIOC’s attributable value to account for the lack of control, as the project is effectively managed by Xstrata. It implies ZIOC’s attributable value of US$1.7bn or US$6.0 per share (£3.8/share)."

It's mind blowing stuff as to where the valuation of the project should be standing, and worth a thorough read:

"Taken from Edison Reserach report dated 12 Dec 2011 - still partly relevant - see pages 10 - 12

Our base-case valuation of the Zanaga project is US$4.3bn in current money terms (discounted to FY11 at 10% to account for the opportunity cost of capital). In our valuation we used a 10% nominal discount rate and applied a 25% haircut to ZIOC’s attributable value to account for the lack of control, as the project is effectively managed by Xstrata. It implies ZIOC’s attributable value of US$1.7bn or US$6.0 per share (£3.8/share).

If Xstrata proceeds with the pipeline option, we estimate the project’s NPV at US$4.2bn (current money terms). We assigned additional value to the remaining resource (at Zanaga’s current US$0.55 per tonne of contained Fe multiple) to account for the potential longer life of mine under the pipeline scenario. While mine-pipeline-port project has lower annual capacity, it is offset by lower absolute capex and opex. In addition, we note that the pipeline option has a shorter lead time, which has a positive impact on the project’s present value.

Based on our estimates, a 14% increase in the benchmark iron ore price (from US$70/t to US$80/t) would lead to a 37% increase in the project’s NPV, while a 13% growth in capex (from US$7.6bn to US$8.6bn) would reduce the NPV by 13%

www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=6417"

[topazfrenzy] 22/11/2016 12:05

6p to buy, double a month ago. Next stop 9p then 12p+ , lots more to come here and soon I believe.

It should soar on news of the granting of the environmental licence, one hopes very shortly.