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Zanaga Iron Share Discussion Threads
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you are right, directors probably took their shares at even higher than 50p. i just copied paste earlier.
nevertheless, even at 50p we are still cheap compared to the assets that we have|
The company was floated at £1.56, not sure where you get that Directors took their shares at 50p?
Glencore pay for most of the running costs and all studies etc, therefore they have first option to buy ZIOC out I understand. Glencore has paid for the FS and other stuff, amounting to over $350M so far.
The Zanaga project in effect is worth billions so the share price for ZIOC is almost guaranteed to recover dramatically as/if iron ore pushes upwards, which it seems to be doing nicely so far. The market has decided that basic commodities is the place to be and this new cycle could last for a decade at least, with new highs to come across the board.
I see 50p as the first fair value stop on the way to the £££s
Crazy for anyone to sell at this level, this is surely just the beginning!
|I wonder if there is more of a correction to come? Has it gone up too much too quickly?
I can see Iron ore is hovering at 77USD, but everyone seems to agree that it's all due to market speculation and that a retrace is only a matter of time due to existing vast supply and even more coming online soon...
hmm.. I've put my buy orders at 5 and 6p... Lets see.
|nicely said, copied from LSE
ZIOC mostly owned by directors. they owned around 70% of ZIOC, hence very low free float.
and directors took their shares when share price was around 50p approx.
so, am expecting share price will slowly recover back to 50p very soon.
iron ore cycle slowly bouncing up... and when its boom time, so does ZIOC|
|Good start hopefully sustained.|
|Tis indeed Topaz but go have a cold shower and crack a cold beer afterwards. Stay cool!|
|The 'long' journey you are talking about richie is when production starts etc, if ZIOC has not been bought out by then (highly unlikely) then we'd be talking£3 per share surely. I think it's definitely reason to be excited don't you think!|
|Calm down Topaz - there is a long journey ahead. Let the project and the stock price do the talking.|
|Found this on the LSE board courtesy of Euclid55.
The project is now way more advanced than at that date, such as the FS is completed and paid for by Glencore/Xstrata plus the mining convention in place.
From the report: "Our base-case valuation of the Zanaga project is US$4.3bn in current money terms (discounted to FY11 at 10% to account for the opportunity cost of capital). In our valuation we used a 10% nominal discount rate and applied a 25% haircut to ZIOC’s attributable value to account for the lack of control, as the project is effectively managed by Xstrata. It implies ZIOC’s attributable value of US$1.7bn or US$6.0 per share (£3.8/share)."
It's mind blowing stuff as to where the valuation of the project should be standing, and worth a thorough read:
"Taken from Edison Reserach report dated 12 Dec 2011 - still partly relevant - see pages 10 - 12
Our base-case valuation of the Zanaga project is US$4.3bn in current money terms (discounted to FY11 at 10% to account for the opportunity cost of capital). In our valuation we used a 10% nominal discount rate and applied a 25% haircut to ZIOC’s attributable value to account for the lack of control, as the project is effectively managed by Xstrata. It implies ZIOC’s attributable value of US$1.7bn or US$6.0 per share (£3.8/share).
If Xstrata proceeds with the pipeline option, we estimate the project’s NPV at US$4.2bn (current money terms). We assigned additional value to the remaining resource (at Zanaga’s current US$0.55 per tonne of contained Fe multiple) to account for the potential longer life of mine under the pipeline scenario. While mine-pipeline-port project has lower annual capacity, it is offset by lower absolute capex and opex. In addition, we note that the pipeline option has a shorter lead time, which has a positive impact on the project’s present value.
Based on our estimates, a 14% increase in the benchmark iron ore price (from US$70/t to US$80/t) would lead to a 37% increase in the project’s NPV, while a 13% growth in capex (from US$7.6bn to US$8.6bn) would reduce the NPV by 13%
|6p to buy, double a month ago. Next stop 9p then 12p+ , lots more to come here and soon I believe.
It should soar on news of the granting of the environmental licence, one hopes very shortly.|
|RIO, GLEN and BLT charging ahead this morning, as are other miners. This commodities cycle has only just begun I believe and could run for years and years. RIO at £10 in a few years anyone? Not out of the question if inflation takes off, they have all been cutting costs and are running very lean machines.
So where's the next supply of iron ore going to come from, especially the high grade stuff, well Zanaga of course. I'm sure Glencore will not want to totally let go of this one, at $2bn to get it operational is really very little considering the mine life, grade and cost of production.
If only more people knew the bargain that is ZIOC they'd all be making a fortune in 2017 and beyond imho. The £s come to mind!
No point even stock picking much with this one in one's portfolio! Hold for massive gains ahead ;)|
|agree with you. for iron ore exposure, ZIOC is the most undervalued imho
can easily reach your target 20p but i may hold for much higher target :)
we will see when trump drump up mage projects in US
check out JLP , ALBA and WRES too...|
|This is one of my top picks for 2017. 20,30p IMO if iron ore touches triple digits on sentiment alone. Possibly much higher if a consortia brought in to finally develop it. One of the highest ore content prospects in the world.|
|nice one topaz on ZIOC
topazfrenzy17 Nov '16 - 15:14 - 2183 of 2190
I think you'll find that once Trump gets in properly next year, the Chinese will be scrambling to get their hands on any large resource of iron ore in Africa, they have already dealt on Simandoo by agreeing Rio Tinto's 50% share (for up to $1.3bn).
The Zanaga iron ore project is even bigger, so Chinalco buying out Glencore or ZIOC (and soonish) is a distinct possibility.
NAV is $1.4bn for Zioc's share so make your sums!|
|Corporate Interview, albeit from 2014:
And another from 2012 which mentions Simandoo project and Rio Tinto:
One more from 2012:
Since then of course, the project has moved forward enormously and the economics for delivering the project hugely improved. With the share price a fraction of what it was! Bargain central or what!!|
|It would look like although iron ore prices might recover a bit, there is going to be quite fierce competition in the near future. I was looking at the monster mine Vale is finishing in Brazil:
90MT, (350MT for the region...!?)
how would we stack up against their cash costs below $10/tonne? (and $28 delivered to china?)
I also note the huge issues Rio Tinto are facing in Guinea with the corruption scandal, maybe positive for us....
Are there any signs that Glencore or Zanaga are getting ready to revive this?
(p.s. I note that Elphick is the only board member with a LinkedIn profile, where he only figures as CEO of GEM. Can't find much more about any of the others. Get the distinct feeling that it's been quite "mothballed" for some time now?)|
|Brilliant info! many thanks topaz.|
Here is the latest presentation about the project, from September 2016:
Any ideas about the actual capex likely to be required? I can see that the old Xstrata numbers were around $7BN ($6BN for the pipeline option, pipeline alone was 1BN) now they're at 2.2BN? (pipeline at 400M)