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I see this as an excelent entry point if you have a 5 year plus view. I have bought XTA and Glencore shares along with Eurasian. Up to the point of the merger and XTA share transfer to GLEN I see XTA shares as the better buy as you will get 3.05 Glen shares. Glen=341p = XTA price of 1040 currently 1019.
The combined Company will become a main player in the market and hence rise in share price provided the comodity markets rise, this is open to debate short tearm but one thing is sure it will rise in time.
For me the hottest play at the moment is ENRC low price, new management roles and possible target for a number of companies and div.|
|arja: yes, tomorrow morning it seems and will hopefully be positive for XTA share price unless GLEN plummets to about 345 on the announcement !|
|rvsy38: Am trying to get my head round this deal.
Glencore share price is currently 350 p and Xstrata share price is 910p give or take a few pence each way.
This equates to 2.6 Glencore shares per Xstrata share.
Qataris have said 2.8 Glencore per Xstrata is not good enough. Let us say they would accept 3.0 Glencore shares per Xstrata share.
If the Glencore share price stays around 350p this means Xstrata share price would rise to 1050p or Glencore share price would have to drop to 303p while Xstrata share price stays at 910p.
If Glencore publish really bad results tomorrow conceivably their share price could take a big hit but if that happens would that be such a good thing for Xstrata ?
I note the proposed name change to Glencore Xstrata International plc - I wager that in a short time Xstrata will be dropped from the name !
I think the deal will happen but don't think there will be much in it for Xstrata shareholders.|
|arja: hope you are right but not so sure . Depends how much takeover premium was built into XTA share price before merger was announced !|
|arja: profit taking is remorseless but XTA share price is now in line with GLEN on conversion terms - so who is the leader ?|
|redartbmud: Looking at the scenario objectively:
1. Unlikely that anyone can counter-bid as Glen owns 34%.
2. Merger implies equality, therefore any premium limited if deal goes ahead.
3. Do Glen have firepower or will to mount hostlie bid if outside shareholders block the deal.
4. What is up-side for XTA share price & conversely downside.
5. Mining stocks havre had a good run recently, will this now tail off & what will that do to the share price
6. Who stands to gain/lose the most. Glen is a commodity trader & XTA a producer.
I am not clever enough to know the answers. It would be a second guess anyway, but Glen intended to bid for XTA when it came to the market.|
|urgentclick: 1000p is on the cards in the near future IMO. It is like a magnet to the XTA share price, we nearly got there today. I'm resisting posting an analogy :) Anyway, I am stoked today with my huge profit, and still holding for more.
@ropey - just buy on the stop-busting spike on Monday if there is one LOL|
|bobsidian: Difficult to ignore the recent moves in the price of copper. Now back at levels seen in November of last year. Copper appears to have retraced 50% of its move between June 2010 and February 2011 and is perhaps oversold and due a bounce of at least 5%. Doubtless such a move would have a geared effect on the share price of XTA.
However, the charting pattern of XTA looks awkward with its most recent moves crafting an interim double-top formation. More often than not such a pattern tends to signal the end of a period of share price consolidation and more often than not such an end tends to see a share price make a major move lower rather than higher.
But the share price of XTA is so volatile as it ricochets between around £9.40 and around £10.50 it is currently making a mockery of attempts to forecast its future direction. Not for the first time stockmarkets and individual share prices are gravitating toward inflection points surrounded by contradictory signals and information. Good news can be treated as bad news and bad news can be treated as good news.
And overhanging all is the spectre of a Greek debt default. It would not be surprising if that situation remains unresolved until December when inevitability influences Central Bank decision making.
|jdb2005: Friz - XTA share price is more volatile than ever with rumours and counter-rumours flying around. Whilst it outpaces RIO & others I urge caution as it may give shorters an opening to screw PIs again.
Only a week ago we were seeing XTA marked down to 990p now it is nearer 1100p.
Elections in Australia could go either way so the odds are stacked against us continuing higher.|
|rvsy38: I have never traded pairs but it occurred to me today that XTA and AAL may fit the bill. I have considered various scenarios :
No 1 : Buy XTA only. If AAL merger falls thru XTA share price probably rises a little more on relief ; if AAL merger proceeds then share price falls as XTA would probably have to make an improved offer.
No 2 : Buy AAL only. If merger proceeds XTA would probably have to sweeten offer so AAL share price rises. If offer falls thru share price probably rises as this will have been a wake up call for AAL to get their act together.
No 3 : Buy both XTA and AAL . Outcome will be essentially neutral whether offer succeeds or fails.
On this basis is the best choice to buy AAL or is my logic very flawed. Any comments would be appreciated.|
Xstrata share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange