Xstrata Share Discussion Threads

[rallycry] 03/9/2012 16:52

Everyone seems to be waiting for stimulus efforts but I feel some of this has already been priced in. Rio/XTA etc etc are all strong stocks and by this time next year I would hope all of these shares will be back up another 20/30% again as long as economy's globally are picking up.

Very hard to predict day to day pricing at the moment but hopefully after this Friday it will change a bit. Also the lonmin mine issue hasn't finished yet which is a worry for XTA as well which hasn't really been mentioned much and in my opinion will be mentioned once/if the merger fails to push price down further by the bankers..

ENRC is looking very interesting chart wise though.

[arja] 03/9/2012 16:45

yes, that makes sense and odd that it was up again earlier today only to finich down on the day albeit only by 5p . But resource stocks did well today lead by RIO which looks good chartwise !

[rallycry] 03/9/2012 16:23

I must admit I have been a strong believer that this would happen but finally sold out late yesterday as downside is too big if this fails. I don't think the share will collapse but I feel there will be serious downward pressure from shorters (possibly down to under £8 again based on previous performance) before a rally if China/US or Europe can get their finger out and promote any sort of growth.

[arja] 03/9/2012 16:01

not sure XTA price will collapse if merger called off as now trading at well below even the 2.8 merger terms . Or is that wishful thinking ?!

[rallycry] 03/9/2012 15:21

Very good article on the current situation :

[declan2] 03/9/2012 14:32

Let's short this all the way back to under £9

[wattene] 03/9/2012 12:29

Trouty - I'm as believer:) Still holding my original wedge and showing a loss of course, but I think that merger or not XTA is still a share worth holding, and 2013 will see some positive gains. As you say though, China is the linch pin. Surprised you haven't put Clarky in the compost bin with the badger:) Thought also I would try and lose some more money on MONI!!

[careful] 03/9/2012 12:12

a short position is a bet on no deal.
glen with have lots of cut price alternative takeover targets if it fails.
i am now wondering if they want it to fail.
xta is becoming relatively expensive

[declan2] 03/9/2012 10:50

Opened it a little too early, but we'll see how it goes.

[wattene] 03/9/2012 10:02

Good Luck with your short Declan2 - you're a braver man than I - Cu up nearly 1%

[declan2] 03/9/2012 09:40

There won't be a merger, gone short @ 950.

[arja] 03/9/2012 08:44

still moving higher today so far but at a deep discoubnt to 2.8 merger terms !

[careful] 02/9/2012 12:59

you cannot listen to what either party says.
xta investors would accept 3.0 or even 2.95 i would guess.
glen shares would rise taking xta with them.

glasenberg said to a large shareholder this weekend that he would not meet their price.
he did not say that he would not raise the offer.

[declan2] 01/9/2012 10:45

Seems like 3.2 is the minimum for the big investors. GLEN won't give that. Expect a big sell off.

Shares in commodities trader Glencore soared by almost 8 per cent yesterday as chief executive Ivan Glasenberg vowed to buy miner Xstrata even if the deal takes longer to complete.



The merger looks likely to collapse next week as Qatar's sovereign wealth fund and other large shareholders have said they will vote down the all-share offer. But Glasenberg's remarks that he would play a long game if necessary and speculation that Glencore might offer a small last-minute sweetener next week to clinch the deal boosted both companies' stock. Glencore was up 27.6p at 385.1p and Xstrata added 51.2 to 952.2p.

[tpinvest] 01/9/2012 09:45

"but not sure why GLEN is rising too as increased offer should make share price fall "

Yes, unless there are hidden merits to the deal outweighing the higher price and dilution - we shall see next week anyway if the Sunday Press doesn't fill us in tomorrow.
There must be vast teams of bods crawling over this merger in the Gulf and in London and stopping a leak near impossible.

[declan2] 31/8/2012 16:47

Well lucky I closed that short for a mean profit. Certainly didn't expect this rise, but let's see what happens over the weekend.

[arja] 31/8/2012 16:22

but not sure why GLEN is rising too as increased off should make share price fall .

[arja] 31/8/2012 16:17

not a bad risk/reward ratio as XTA rising at a faster % rate than GLEN this afternoon !

[tpinvest] 31/8/2012 16:13

With GLEN and XTA the top risers on the FTSE 100 today
Either;
Gamblers have come out in force
Or;
Those in the know are piling in!!!

With a possible offer of 3-1 needed to close this takeover the XTA price
is geared 3 to 1 to the GLEN price - a very tempting proposition.

My own feeling is that news is going to spill out possibly over the weekend
so anyone not holding tonight might just miss out.

What's it to be?? a tenner on the horses or a flutter on XTA???

DYOR of course

[arja] 31/8/2012 12:41

what a screaming buy XTA is at current price if deal does go ahead . even at 2.8 ratio it will add about 100p ! Market is saying a good chance the merger will not proceed of course !

[wattene] 31/8/2012 08:47

One thing is for sure, the outcome wont be the result of any fancy chart. I still think the deal will go through, but very much doubt a drop of 200 points if it doesn't. XTA has been busy reorganising and improving mines to get better copper output - just need China to take the brakes off.

[whackford] 31/8/2012 08:32

I think there's agood chance Glen will up the ratio. If the deal falls through Glen will look silly; they won't look so silly if they go to at least 3 - which by common consent is still fair to Glen.

[declan2] 30/8/2012 21:21

i agree with monty, don't think it will go ahead, this could lose 200 points