Xlmedia Share Discussion Threads

[busterdog2] 01/3/2017 18:28

2 x 835410 trades from last Friday. Two buys or a rollover?

[rivaldo] 28/2/2017 14:02

Cheers for that - and the writer doesn't even mention the large cash pile which reduces the ex-cash P/E to single figures.

[tomstone12] 28/2/2017 11:52

ha ha same second

[tomstone12] 28/2/2017 11:51

nice write up

[igoe104] 28/2/2017 11:51

Positive write-up.

[rivaldo] 24/2/2017 07:22

Cheers gargleblaster - Chris Boxall says XLM are "very, very cheap", and I for one agree.

And a vote of support for XLM from Athelney Trust's results this morning (if you want a provocative and amusing review of the state of the world economy, Athelney's narrative is always a good read!):



"Portfolio Review

Holdings of.....XL Media were all purchased for the first time"

[tomstone12] 23/2/2017 18:28

unsurprisingly another xlm fan :)

[gargleblaster] 23/2/2017 15:59

If this link works - interesting thoughts of Chris Boxall on XLM, Watkin Jones, and ABDP to name three.

[tomstone12] 23/2/2017 08:52

32red acquisition today 20+ EV / EBITDA...

[rivaldo] 23/2/2017 08:09

Another pre-open buy today at 108p - someone's making a habit of this!

[tomstone12] 22/2/2017 08:14

hoping to make it if work allows.

[rivaldo] 22/2/2017 08:02

Interesting to see a 1k share buy at 108p before the open today - a full 2p above the published 106p offer.

Tomstone12, I may well go to the presentation.

[tomstone12] 20/2/2017 18:00

who is planning on attending the private investor presentation in a few weeks?

[rivaldo] 20/2/2017 12:33

Great to see XLM holding presentations for private/retail investors this year post-results on 8th March as well as for institutions. More companies should follow this model - the more that can be learnt about one's investments the better.

With $14.4m already spent on acquisitions this year there will hopefully be upgrades to forecasts for this and next year following the results.

As a reminder, current forecasts from Cenkos are:

last year : 9.21p EPS, 4.81p divi
this year : 9.78p EPS, 5.29p divi

Anyone got Berenberg's forecasts? Their 150p target price is higher than Cenkos' 130p, so I wonder if their estimates are higher accordingly?

[yump] 20/2/2017 10:27

o/t actually quite a few affiliates retired on the back of windfalls in various sectors, when Google used to list your sites higher than the retailers (early ecommerce days 2000-2005 ish). Affiliates were creating content that Google liked way faster than retailers, who were slow, so loads of searches ended up going via affiliate sites showing products on the first search page and it was literally ker-ching, every few minutes !

Great example was that when you rent a car on holiday you search for 'rent a car in Palma', but the holiday car rental companies just had their existing site. One affiliate just created a page for every 'rent a car in xxx', with some info. about the place and some other waffle, which Google liked and that was a multi-million business in a couple of years I think.

[tomstone12] 20/2/2017 08:09

Yump, to each his own and your approach is totally fine. (not for me though :))They have increased EPS and lowered revenue guidance in SEP as of a result of change to the utilities sector and trimming of their partner network (both low margin businesses )
regarding financials they haven't come out and said but to my knowledge an efficient run lead gen with low OPEX (no call center and TV ads) can make 50-55% EBIT margins quite easily which while lower then the gambling is more stable and represents a solid business line. BTW regarding retiring form Gambling I'm sure the XLM founders are quite well off from the years before the IPO as well as post (div's and placement), wouldn't worry about that! :)

[yump] 19/2/2017 18:24

tomstone12

Yes. They have moved into some other verticals I know. I'm quite interested in seeing if they separate out performance at some point, because I'm sure the profitability will not be the same in all verticals, so I won't be back in until its apparent whether the diversification is growing the business in revenue terms, while having a diminishing margin. Perhaps the margin will be better. I've met a couple of affiliates who virtually retired on the back of gambling site lead producing revenue/share. The price-comparison/financial/insurance sites all seemed to go quite corporate early on, (possibly because of FSA etc.) which I think made them very profitable and quite efficient already. Gambling was a bit of a free for all, don't bother how you get the lead type operation in many cases. Lots of potential efficiences, plus control issues, which I think XLM have solved in many cases, therefore gaining credibility with the final customers.

[yump] 19/2/2017 18:06

I think you mean positive and supportive, rather than constructive don't you.

Sometimes I post the negative stuff to see if any positive stuff comes up to convince me. That's constructive enough for me. Tough if it isn't for others.

This is not a chatty hobby forum after all.

[critter] 19/2/2017 17:32

Yump contribute something constructive or go and deramp elswhere!

[tomstone12] 18/2/2017 10:55

Fine, but you did notice they basically said this is what they want to do since the IPO right and in every report since then ?

[yump] 18/2/2017 10:47

I have no doubt XLM are well run. Its the investment case that I think has changed.

[tomstone12] 18/2/2017 10:34

I think they run the business quite well
Let's see, 3 years, triple revenue, 2 5 times EPS and most of the funds raisespaid back in dividends while maintaining a large cash balance and adding different business lines.

Not bad in my book..

But hey you lost some cash on a totally different company, so I guess that's invalid:)

[yump] 18/2/2017 10:23

There is a difference between sticking to gambling and making sure you've exploited your assets fully in that area before trying another market. Especially if you just go and buy a big established business in that vertical.

The idea that you diversify in order to avoid a potential collapse which might or might not happen as a result of regulatory changes, is quite honestly ridiculous and no way to run any business.

fyi DGS had a bit of tech. they developed for managing paid search successfully in the US in utilities, for customer acquisition. They floated and started geographical expansion into Europe and into some other markets such as mobile. They've now delisted and I lost a chunk of money.

You may think that has negatively influenced my comments on here. It has. Because I should never have bought those shares in the first place as they explicitly floated to do that expansion, which in retrospect made the investment risk very high.

The truth may never come out, but I now wonder why they didn't go for further expansion in utilities in the US first. Or at least another vertical. But no, they floated and went for Europe.

So there's a parallel here, in that XLM have bought a Canadian financial business. Canadian ? Really ? So there was nothing closer to home ?

I think the revenue growth is slowing in gambling and that is why they've looked elsewhere. I don't think its anything to do with managing business risk.

We'll see.

[tomstone12] 18/2/2017 09:49

We should consider a different take on "risk". Not diversifying is the risk factor! Consider gambling, in which you claim would be better to stick to. How many times have we seen this industry go through turmoil and share prices collapse on the back of regulatory changes ? A one trick pony dependent only one this sector introduces a much higher else risk IMO then a diversified one using a proven business model and tech across different sectors with less regulatory volatility. And again re finanční also they said in presentations they work on CPA there, as they don't in many cases in gambling. In some financial services sector like insurance even rev share is allowed. FYI

[blueeyes13] 18/2/2017 03:57

Sorry, last 3 x 6 month periods I meant and not quarters, apologies.