Xenetic Bio Share Discussion Threads

[holly_dog] 19/6/2014 17:22

They're soaking up a ton of volume. Now 53k. Both GLED and BKRT duking it out. BKRT continually pipping GLED. Get in!!

Two separate entities really want shares.

[holly_dog] 19/6/2014 17:07

EXCELLENT.

BKRT back on the bid. Now them fighting with GLED for stock. From watching Level 2 GLED have been trying to manoeuvre it down in the last week to get it a bit cheaper, whereas BKRT seem to be more aggressive at buying stock. A few sells in the 70s and then I think we could be clear to $1 based on the current screen.

Goes to show the risk of OTC, nothing fundamental. We have to remember that the only way MMs make money is to put some volatility into the stock up or down. If it just trades flat they can't make any margin.

Puts us in a good place for news to hopefully arrive soon.

[hyper al] 19/6/2014 12:44

Thanks all.

[holly_dog] 19/6/2014 12:43

Ash - that definitely sounds like a good plan!

[holly_dog] 19/6/2014 12:42

If you wait until NASDAQ you could do a 'bed and ISA' but I think you'll have to pay CGT on any gains up until the point you sell.

[ashthorpedo] 19/6/2014 12:30

I hold Xenetic shares in a SIPP, ISA and CTF accounts. These were purchased when listed on AIM. I was worried that I would be forced to sell a few months back but as yet no one has told me to do so. I'm keeping my head down and waiting for Nasdaq listing.

[holly_dog] 19/6/2014 12:17

No they definitely do not.

hxxp://www.tddirectinvesting.co.uk/help/faqquestions/which-stocks-can-i-hold-in-my-isa/

[hyper al] 19/6/2014 10:39

What are the rules in the UK concerning the purchase of OTC stock, can they go in an ISA?

[holly_dog] 19/6/2014 08:03

Regarding EPO, the plan is to outlicense after (hopefully) imminently positive P2 trials. So they will just take royalties from that. It's the orphan drug market they're after since the passage through is much softer, and it seems like they are partnering with big hitters to support them through. Their link up with Dana Faber is very encouraging - again, an institution of that size and reputation would not just waste their time with a small cap like Xenetic.

I agree with you about OTC, and feel disappointed the company in hindsight chose this route as the experience so far is even worse than AIM.

Regarding institutional investors, it's hard to get complete clarity however I watch the monthly stock volume reports to see who has been buying, last month a MM which typically acts on behalf on institutions (BKRT) took significant volumes. I will be very interested to see it this month. Having watched Level 2 VNDM were very active which saw a lot of volume in the 50s, they then pulled out on Monday and that's when the price fell. Hard to decipher from their website but could believe they also act for an institution. Now seems as though both buyer and seller has disappeared, hence the lack of volume and horrendous spread.

hxxp://www.otcbb.com/asp/tradeact_mv.asp?SearchBy=issue&Issue=xbio&Month=5-1-2014&IMAGE1.x=0&IMAGE1.y=0

[buywell2] 19/6/2014 07:20

Doing the RIGHT Pre-Clinical Assays using the RIGHT CRO to do them can save a BIG Pharma $2 BILLION plus as many have found to their cost.

MOST new drug compounds now fail pre clinical trials due to Toxicology issues, ADME issues comes next.

Drugs that are withdrawn AFTER FDA Approval do so because of Toxicity issues in the vast majority of cases also resulting in massive legal costs.

Check out the range of assays that CRO Cyprotex (CRX) offer ... they are a world leading ADME Tox CRO with USA Goverment contracts worth around $130 Million

Also only 6 miles up the road from Xenetic BioSciences new labs( Lexington) in Watertown MA . Also use the same NOMAD.

[dr biotech] 18/6/2014 13:34

I don't have any position here. I do have a wealth of (mostly bad) experiences of holding bios which makes more more cynical than most.

From the latest update, the company had $15m cash (dec, including $10m from baxter) and was burning about $700k a month. So that leaves them say $10m. Not a bad figure. Market cap is $50m, so thats $40m of success. I'd say that was quite a lot. Its hard to know how to value something like this. If you had a decent PII result that needed a £100m PIII trial that had a 50% chance of success that would lead to sale worth £400m pa what is it worth? They would not be able to afford the trials themselves so any partner who shoulders the risk would want most of the reward.

I would value the preclinical stuff at $0. Harsh perhaps, but I have seen too many of those come to nothing.

The other issue I have with trials outside the EU/US is that it is wasting patent time. The clock starts ticking when you file the drug - if they are going to have to redo the trials then it probably means the best it would get would be the minimum 10(?)years exclusivity. I did some work with a well known US pharma and they try to think of every day you save getting a drug through trials is potentially £1m of sales. Unfortunately they were still tightwads when it came to purchasing our equipment though.

As for the share price we will see, I am an interested observer, but as mentioned before I wouldn't touch OTC.

[holly_dog] 18/6/2014 12:51

Dr B - interesting to hear your opinions, as you seem reasonably balanced and not ramping/de-ramping. Your point on the risk for me is intrinsically linked to the valuation. If you have a high valuation, then your 'buffer' or risk is dramatically increased, as a lot is assumed. However at prices in the 30s / 40s, with a market cap of $50m, very little 'success' is priced in. That's how I look at it, when I bought in UK-side with a sub £20m market cap.

As for the 'second world country' trials, I think you have misunderstood the strategy. I believe their aim is to get rich data which allows them to be more informed before embarking on more expensive Western trials. They also outlicense deals with partners in these 'second world countries'. No attempt to use the data to fast-track Western trials, except the Aus/NZ trial which is a proven way to cost-effectively launch in EU/US.

Finally, the share price. My simple view is when we migrated, UK holders were sitting on a really nice re-rating. Over many months they have been selling down, but the company does not seem to have been as good at lining up a lot of new US buyers. They held a conference a few weeks ago to rectify this. I watch level 2 most days, and on the surface it looks as though there are indeed buyers, but due to high illiquidity can work the price down to allow an attractive entry point. The sharp drop to 30c was on 1.6k of volume, and there does not seem to be any appetite to provide shares at this point.

The next 10 days will be interesting given expectations for P2 EPO data in Aus, OncoHist data and NASDAQ update. Let's see what happens

[buywell2] 18/6/2014 07:32

Baxter know Factor V111 is going to be big

Xenetic are on circa $130m re this one deal alone

OTC is only temporary ... NASDAQ listing plans for later this year

EPO results out before end of june , less than 2 weeks

Following recent presentations, my understanding is that several Institutional investors in the USA want stock in QUANTITY

BUT

There ain't any to be had



Anyone selling XBIO stock now is a PRAT

[jammytass] 18/6/2014 05:31

lol nice one

[dr biotech] 17/6/2014 21:35

For them its a low risk way of getting into something that might work out. The cost of getting a drug to market is extortionate - some research manager sees potential and strikes a deal that has low upfront fee. Cheaper way of finding a preclinical/early stage candidate than doing it in house.

If I could find 30 horses that had bookies odds of 35-1 to win but say a 1 in 30 chance of winning I would bet on them all, but none of them individually. As mere PIs we can not take that approach but a big player can.

Xen may succeed, but I am holding my wallet, not my breath.

[jammytass] 17/6/2014 20:55

dr bio so why would baxters invest in here

[dr biotech] 17/6/2014 20:23

No, I am not a holder here. I used to hold in another bio which had the Xen ticker (xenova) and countless other bios. With a couple of exceptions they all ended in tears. Badly run by overpaid directors.

I have a PhD in Biochemistry so for me there was always a natural interest in this type of share. Having learned my lesson the closest thing I hold to a bio is GSK, which in fairness is not close at all.

I looked at this one but decided against it. It wasn't hard.

I don't like the OTC, or the fact that they decided to go to the US. I know bios are more highly rated over there, but it has shafted most of the UK based shareholders. Also if the products were strong enough I think they would have been OK over here. I would be interested to see the levels of remuneration when based in the UK compared to the US too.

I'm also not impressed with the progress they have made with the pipeline, or the pipeline itself. Too early stage and the trials are outside the EU/US - I think that would make it very hard to get approval and the trials may well end having to be re-run.

But other than that its fine. Todays fall may be a leak of bad news or just a vagary of being on the OTC. I'd like to think the latter.

[corrientes] 17/6/2014 18:51

Why would some big hitters join this outfit if its as bad as some here are making out ?

That wouldn't do their reputations any good.

[jammytass] 17/6/2014 17:32

at this price baxters should buy out xen

[holly_dog] 17/6/2014 17:24

The OTC is a complete pain, but it was the most cost effective way to get to NASDAQ, which is a primary goal and should be announced soon based on recent presentations. Whoever is selling now is daft. They have assembled a very strong team, and would have given them an inside track on the strategy, technology and planned progress to NASDAQ. $10m is not big, agreed, but why invest it if you don't think you will get a return.

I'm not clear if your issue is OTC, the company, its portfolio? Out of curiosity do you hold? Been on this board awhile and have not seen you here before. UK/US based?

[dr biotech] 17/6/2014 17:10

Baxters investment in this one is trivial. I know you could say they would pay up to $150m in milestones etc (which would not be trivial) but they are hard to hit - for example how much have they actually paid since the first "$76m" deal in 2006?

Also I doubt they bought the shares through the OTC market - as a PI its something I would avoid at all costs. Might as well put your money OTC at William Hill.

You never know as with all small caps they might pull a rabbit out of the bag, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[corrientes] 17/6/2014 16:27

Oh well ! Back to square one, but not for long I suspect.

[holly_dog] 17/6/2014 16:22

So Baxter, a company with a market cap of $40bn, who bought 10% of the company at 93c, needs their head examined?