|Wren (See LSE:WREN)
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Wren (See LSE:WREN) (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|sandbank: The share price seems to be oscillating in a channel. However the real move ahead won't come here until mortgage finance improves. Yes - Wren have an elderly client base - most of whom don't have any outstanding mortgage - but their ability to dispose of their existing home depends on the availability of funding to the buyer.
Wren is certainly worth watching.|
|affc21: section below from the above note (GROWTH EQUITIES & COMPANY RESEARCH):
Valuation and Conclusion
Wren creates Extra Care schemes focussing on the fast growing, emerging market for Extra-Care retirement homes and the perception of its prospects being intertwined with those of the overall residential housing market, should gradually fade - particularly with the Company's rental proposition.
However, the UK residential housing market is in a severe recession which is clearly demonstrated by the appalling results and forecast expectations for most of the quoted housebuilders.
However, we believe that the worst of the downturn is over and even only a slight recovery is likely to translate into growing investor appetite for housebuilders. Although, house builders are not necessarily a good valuation proxy for Wren, they do nonetheless provide an indication of possible value. Additionally, it is the sector that most investor's will value the Company against during the current transitional phase.
Price Earnings multiples do not provide much guidance but the Price Sales (per share) multiples do and, as the recovery develops and investor appetite builds, the expectation has to be for the Price Sales multiples of the depressed companies to converge with those of Berkeley Group (1.7x) and Bovis Homes (1.9x). Wren is trading on a 2011 Price/Sales multiple of 0.3x and it could be argued that a premium multiple - because of its unique investment proposition and potential for higher growth rates due to the increasing demands from an aging population is merited. However, even a Price Sales multiple of just 1 would imply a share price of 26.3p based on 2011 forecasts
We have also looked at Wren from the perspective of possible forward P/E multiples for the acknowledged, not ideal, Construction sector but also Support Services and Healthcare. We have discounted these sector multiples by 10% (arguably overly aggressive in the current economic climate) and these suggest a possible 2011 target price of around 49p (1.9x forecast sales); using Wren's implied earnings per share (annualised to 31 December 2011 and after a full tax charge).|
|what is a login ?: In the absence of any news from the company and in the light of the drastic fall in the share price I put forward two possible scenarios:
1) This company is the new McCarthy and Stone.It has even employed a McCarthey and Stone manager. With it's winning formula and competitive edge it provides amenable homes for delighted Grannies up and down the land and it will be a multi-bagger for shareholders. It has tons of plots of land in prime locations The only problem is that sentiment towards building stocks is low. This is the baby that has been thrown out with the bathwater. But you can't keep a good stock down....
2) The Company is unable to sell its properties as they are far too expensive. The executivwe chairman has abandoned ship. Yes, there are people who give themselves airs of being directors and pay themselves high salaries but their main task is to direct the activities of telephonists on ten quid an hour who try and persuade elderly people who live in houses with big gardens to part with their property. Another of their jobs is to sweeten up journalists who write for papers who then put a buy recommendation on the shares at 60p.
Mr Treadaway himself says that profits will be "lumpy". But now the failure to sell finished properties is hampering the ability to finance new projects. A vicious circle and downward spiral in the share price.
Well, perhaps the reality is somewhere between the two. I have been in and out three times with only small purchases. Made a small gain once and made small losses twice. At the monment I'm out and I will stay out until there is less uncertainty. I had great hopes for this stock and I like its name and the way it used to sit at the bottom of my portfolio on the monitor just beneath VTG. Bonne chance à tout le monde.|
|what is a login ?: This is the article:
Wren may be good home for a nest-egg
Brian O'Connor, Daily Mail
2 July 2007, 10:20am
If you live in a four or five-bedroom house in southern England with a good-sized garden, in a nice area with shops and services handy, you might one day get a call from Wren Homes chairman Peter West.
He will ask you about the possibility of turning the site into retirement apartments. If your home is worth £600,000, he might offer you £720,000 subject to planning permission.
If you like the idea, having taken legal advice, you sign an option to sell at that price within a year. He seeks planning consent and if he succeeds, he will come back and give you six months to move.
In this way, Wren has collected options which could enable it to build 440 apartments. The first 28 at Warlingham in Surrey were completed a year ago. The firm plans 60 more at a nearby site and another 61 at Carshalton and Crowborough.
West, an experienced developer, founded the group with Paul Treadaway in 1994. He says: 'By 2021 one in five people in Britain will be over 65. By 2040 there will be 15m. Yet the number of retirement homes being built is minuscule.'
Wren's apartments are not care homes. The company's target customers are still active, though some may need help. Typically, they pay £340,000 for a two-bedroom apartment, with use of garden and a communal area.
Each room has an alarm button reaching a call centre. Service charges and ground rent add about £180 a month.
West and Treadaway floated Wren on the Ofex (now Plus) market in 2001 and moved to Aim last November, raising £5.8m in a placing at 36p. They sold £1.4m of shares each, but still hold 49%.
City investors snapped up the shares, lifting them to 66½p, where Wren is valued at £27m. West says: 'There is a great big gap in the retirement business which gives us a lot of room for growth. We are a very ambitious company. We are looking to be the next McCarthy & Stone.'
That would be some achievement. McCarthy, an Investment Extra favourite since Michael Walters wrote the column, was taken private last year for a stonking £1.1bn. Last tipped here at 501p, it went out at 1075p for a healthy profit. Wren's sales were £3.3m (and pretax profits £1.7m) last year so it is a long way from the big league yet.
West hopes to get there partly by buying private housing developers. Issuing more shares could be a drag on the share price. Risks abound. The cycle from finding a site identification to selling an apartment can take five years. Since schemes are funded partly by bank loans, delay could be costly. Any shortfall in the quality of its homes could damage its brand.
Ageing has an unglamorous side, but unquestionably many will need suitable homes. Estate agent Savills estimates the UK has only 40 retirement villages - upwards of 400 are needed.|
|affc21: philjeans - nice rise in the share price here today.
I am not in but they are on my monitor.
|philjeans: Just announced by the company today that the promotion to AIM is going ahead, with a fund raising exercise concurrently, to raise £3M.
Excellent news and confirms the press speculation, and my comments above, that this was imminent.
I see significant further share price appreciation as and when we get further info.|
|philjeans: A small but highly profitable home counties specialist builder, currently traded on OFEX. Successfully operating over the past 12 years, the company has focussed on obtaining planning consent on brown field sites (often large gardens of detached houses in the stockbroker belt) and building much needed residential units of all sizes around London.
Wren has recently begun to specialise in retirement houses and apartments and currently has options outstanding on 350 residential units (290 retirement properties) which , if all succesfull, would have a gross sale value, after build/conversion, of over £100M!
But t/o last year was only £2.4M as they need finance, and time, to develop. They came to OFEX in late 2001 at about 14p and the shares have gone nowhere since; currently 12p but have gyrated between 9p and 24p over the past 4 years.
REASONS TO BUY
* profit in last f/y to 31/07/05 was £1,027,000
* current P/E is therefore around 4; and falling
* last report announced they were considering promotion to AIM to gain higher profile; raise more cash and improve share price - directors have been disappointed with market perception, and reception, to date. I understand plans are now well advanced.
* I know that current trading is very strong and total earnings this year will be well up - however, with these small builders, timing of sales is critical and completions either side of the date line severely impact results in the short term. That happened a couple of years ago, but things caught up in 2005.
* co has EXCELLENT web site, providing full info - wrenhomesplc.co.uk and the business uses up to the minute digital mapping software for its planning applications and builds.
* share price is currently bumping along the bottom but; AN ANNOUNCEMENT ON 13TH MARCH REVEALED £500K OF NEW SHARES HAD BEEN ISSUED AT 22.3P - ALMOST DOUBLE THE CURRENT TRADING PRICE.
* two founding directors own 93% of issued shares; this means there are very few available in the market and prices can be volatile
An unknown, highly profitable, specialist housebuilder in the frantically sought after south east catchment, soon to be listed on Aim; has issued new shares at almost double the current price but you can still buy at 12.5p!
As ever DYOR etc. I hold.
NOTE - As shares are traded on OFEX at present, I can't seem to get current charts or figs across from that site, but see Ofex.com for full details of co.|
Wren (See LSE:WREN) share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange