Wpp Share Discussion Threads

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 20:46

Of course, FTSE may still be in correction mode. At today's intraday high of 7291 it has recovered, in 3 days, 62.78% of the second PW (7406:7097) and could easily move into a third PW down later on this week or even tomorrow. If that happens, we will then not make much profit on XUKS unless we are prepared to Buy @ higher prices which I don't like doing.

I will probably Add a further 50% to XUKS @ around about the 75.00% recovery mark (c7329) and then similar amounts at 50 point increments thereafter e.g. c7379, c7429, c7479 etc etc. Sooner or later the markets will crack!

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 20:32

Fair question, Gateside.

I see XUKS as something of a seed share which will bear fruit over time albeit possibly quicker than I would prefer.

If FTSE does go up another say 4% over the next month or so then we will make much more money than the small losses we will accrue on XKUS (current ratio is about 6:1). In fact, the losses on the Short position will be extremely limited as to be unnoticeable even when we have doubled and tripled the holding.

We will bank profits and reduce on our Long positions as well but, ultimately, FTSE is likely to drop at least (12.00%) between May and October and we will generate sizable profits on the short position which will partially offset the temporary reduction in value of the remaining long positions.

One needs to view the Long trackers and Short trackers as independent of each other!

[gateside] 25/4/2017 19:23

I'm not being critical of your strategy, I just don't understand the logic.Curious to know your reasoning.

[gateside] 25/4/2017 18:45

Pat... Can you explain the logic of buying XUKSWhy not just sell more VUKE instead?

[essentialinvestor] 25/4/2017 17:14

Hi Pat, on the shares sold yes, have a few higher up as well.

12.00 from memory will check, it fell sharply on the last report and was then
bought back quickly, I got down to 1517 on a buy.


EDIT, just checked and 12.00 BST it is.

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 17:07

So you've made a profit on GSK then, EI?

It usually goes up on results day...usually about 11:00AM isn't it?

[essentialinvestor] 25/4/2017 17:02

GSK report tomorrow, nice close today.
Was £1,970 exactly down by Friday's close, have sold small amounts
through yesterday and today.

I think there is a big move on the update, perhaps 4% approx,
can't call the direction.

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 16:57

Our portfolio was up 00.10% today and the stock level increased to 53.6% (although about 4.1% of that is now on the short side). Cashed a few more VUKE today as well as Buying XUKS and we now have 21 companies in our portfolio.

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 09:24

Paid a little too much for the initial stake in XUKS but, no worries, as could end up trebling the holding if FTSE does indeed put in a 5th Up Segment. So we now have 21 companies and stock level is 55.2% albeit we now have both Long & Short FTSE100 trackers which are competing against each other.

We will probably now hold the remaining 20 Long companies until new highs are achieved albeit there will be various Add and Reduce trades along the way.

[nasdaqpat] 25/4/2017 07:52

Both NAS Comp and NAS100 as well as DAX extended their Bull highs yesterday. In each case the upshot is that there was no correction. In the case of DAX, for example, it merely spent 11 days giving back a proportion of its 7th Up wave (11850:12376) and today will be Day 3 of its 8th Up wave starting from 11942 (20 Apr). In addition, neither DOW or SPX have confirmed they are in a definitive correction as neither have lowered the starting point of their last principal Up waves.

The one exception to this correctionless theme is, of course, FTSE100 which has at least put in a Segmental correction and given back, so far, [45.45%] of its 6677:7447 gains when it visited 7097 on 20 Apr.

In fact, the mini-correction for FTSE may well be over and it could now be in the process of establishing a fifth Segment since the Bear market low of 5500 on 12 Feb 2016 with a new Bull high beyond 7447 to follow in due course. However, if there is to be a fresh segment and a new high, I suspect it will be done and dusted in just 20-25 days (starting from 21 Apr) and then be followed by a mega (Phase) correction.

This scenario was discussed a few months ago (did ccr1958 favour it?) but I rejected it as unlikely due to there being insufficient time to have both a segmental and phase correction. I may well have been wrong (again).

Nevertheless and undaunted, I intend to Buy an initial stake in a 21st company first thing...XUKS (which is effectively a FTSE short).

[gateside] 24/4/2017 22:03

Didn't choose the best of days to sell the few shares outside of my ISA last Friday. Hoping to buy some of them back inside my ISA for a cheaper price, and some shot up today. Oh well.Hopefully the Market will fall back a bit in a while.

[nasdaqpat] 24/4/2017 16:59

Our portfolio was up 01.07% today and the stock level reduced to 50.7% following the sale of 3 small companies and the slimming down of the FTSE100 tracker funds. We now have just 20 companies in our portfolio.

[nasdaqpat] 24/4/2017 16:48

That's another advantage of the 'short kill' strategy, you can take a break whenever you fancy, especially if the market is presenting conflicting signals.

[essentialinvestor] 24/4/2017 16:36

Thanks Pat, however reserve judgement on that one!.


My plan was to take a few weeks break but that was scuppered by the snap
GE call, however may now do so and see where we go during May.

Finding it difficult to see decent risk/reward opportunities
on single stock ideas, LLOY was pretty much my last one used up.

[nasdaqpat] 24/4/2017 16:26

You appear canny to me, EI, not ridiculous.

The only person that has been out of the market in recent times has been Invisage and he has some kind of transference disorder.

[essentialinvestor] 24/4/2017 16:23

Pat, to answer the question more directly, have sold the ISF added last week.

Risks look to the downside to me, however on days like today that view
looks rather ridiculous, however it would be disingenuous to say otherwise,
even at the risk of looking ridiculous ) - and I always keep in mind my view may be wrong.

[nasdaqpat] 24/4/2017 16:17

Invisage, you mean just like you were leading up to the Referendum. LOL!

[essentialinvestor] 24/4/2017 16:10

Invisage, as mentioned last week that is how I view holding a large
cash position, as a high "risk" position.

[invisage] 24/4/2017 16:03

Nasdaq at all time high. The risk is being out of the markets imo.

[essentialinvestor] 24/4/2017 16:00

ISF 1,900 x 2.

Pat, the honest answer is .. wish I knew.

As mentioned yesterday if you wanted to take a bullish view
there is an abundance of current correction calls, that is usually
bullish.

Trump's tax plans, how they are viewed, and where crude is going
look the short term significant themes to me.

[nasdaqpat] 24/4/2017 15:45

EI, You bought some ISF didn't you. Have you held on to them all or, to put it another way, do you think FTSE's mini-correction is over?

[essentialinvestor] 24/4/2017 15:40

Just my take!, as always.

Let a few more GSK go.

[nasdaqpat] 24/4/2017 15:32

Fair enough, EI, I'm actually quite ambivalent on the matter.

Decided not to get rid of any of FTSE100 companies just yet awhile but, instead, reduced on the trackers a little more and ditched all 3 of our loss making micro caps (AEG, BHRD & REDS) in order to tighten up the portfolio somewhat. Stock level currently @ 50.7%.

[nasdaqpat] 24/4/2017 15:00

I wouldn't have thought the French presidency is as nailed on as markets seem to be suggesting. Surely the same people that deserted the main political parties will not want to take notice of who they say should be supported now. Possibly a case of BREXIT deja vu with Macron odds at 8/1 on.