Wpp Share Discussion Threads

[gateside] 30/1/2017 17:51

5 up, 4 level, 15 downIf we get a correction, I'll add more to AMFW - it's still far from being anywhere near being my largest holding.

[nasdaqpat] 30/1/2017 17:07

Our shares ended up slightly outperforming FTSE100 with a decline of (0.81%) as opposed to a decline of (0.92%) for FTSE100. We had just 10 Shares Up, 33 Down and 2 Unchanged. Added to L100, HMCX & XASX so stock level climbed further to 62.3%.

[nasdaqpat] 30/1/2017 10:14

To qualify as a correction, a Down wave will invariably lower at least one wave base fairly early on but we could have an unusual situation now in that FTSE would need to sink lower than 6679 to qualify and that may well not happen anytime soon.

However, it could be that it drops to my target of c6937 (which is the c(61.80%) give back mark) in the first instance and then recovers c80.00% of the c(417) points and gets back to c7271 before diving again and eventually, possibly over several months, declining below 6679...that would be a correction albeit not that easy to identify in its early stages.

Do you two guys think we have started a correction by my definition?

[nasdaqpat] 30/1/2017 09:20

Nice bit of weakness this AM with FTSE100 extending its Down wave to 10 days & (03.22%) @ the earlier 7117. That is still only a [35.11%] give back of the prior 28 day Up wave (6679:7354) and should therefore, at this stage, in no way be considered a correction but merely a healthy give back.

Further downside likely but decided to Add to L100 and doubled up on HMCX & XASX. Not appropriate to sell out on any of our targeted companies so still 45 shares with stock level now up to 62.4%.

[gateside] 28/1/2017 16:08

Interesting thoughts... Thanks pat

Invisage... BMS have cut the dividend. As nasdaqpat says you'll be lucky to get 10p - which is a reduction from 26p - that's approx a 60% cut - but alas the company could not bring themselves to say it has been 'cut'. In today's speak it is 'rebased'. It's been CUT!

I agree, I think we have not seen the end of the bad news from BMS and took the decision to put the money in another 'recovery' stock AMFW, which in my opinion is nearer the recovery stage.

In 2015 I sold GLEN at 120p at a large percentage loss, (but only a small investment) and put the money in BLT when they were about 850p in order to average down BLT

I watched GLEN go down to about 40p and was happy with the decision I made. OK Glen have recovered to much higher prices (near 300p I think) but BLT have recovered as well - at the time when GLEN was plummeting, there was talk of them going out of business. So I took the safer option of recovering some of my losses in BLT

I'm comfortable selling at a loss if I reinvest the cash in a share that I think has greater potential of recovering my losses.

[nasdaqpat] 28/1/2017 12:02

BTW, VLK was an example of a share I abandoned after a profit warning...it already had a history and the warning looked pretty severe. I sold @ 21p for a hefty loss and it then went down to 7.5p. It has subsequently got lucky by managing to sell the underperforming division leaving it with a very attractive rump. I should have re-bought as it is now back to 17.75p.

[nasdaqpat] 28/1/2017 11:55

Looking at the issue from a sector viewpoint is also important. Banks have been in recovery mode for years and it is only recently with the interest rate cycle starting to turn Up that the sector looks attractive. In fact, it could be a go to sector for several years to come.

Certainly, once STAN, HSBA and PAG put in their corrections, I will be jumping on board again in preference to many other shares in other sectors.

[nasdaqpat] 28/1/2017 11:20

They have cut the dividend for BMS...you will be lucky to get 10p next year...they have said they are rebasing it.

Also, it will take years for it to recover and the money would be much better invested in a better recovery story just as Gateside has done by investing in AMFW.

[nasdaqpat] 28/1/2017 11:12

Good question Gateside.

I think it partly depends on whether the market has acted too severely or not to the bad news. Invariably, these days, SPs are initially marked down disproportionately to the problem and this is then compounded when the shorting vultures force it down further. It is a judgement issue but I tend to try and avoid crystalizing large losses wherever possible albeit the adage that profit warnings come in threes is frequently true.

If you remember, I managed to avoid holding BMS for its first profit warning as I smelled a rat and haven't been particularly hurt following its second. I did Buy 50% more on Tuesday @ 243.9p reducing our average to 299p but have resolved to sell the lot @ >= 262p next week.

BT.A is a different kettle of fish...I believe the market has over-reacted and I will be playing the long game with them. Our average is already quite good @ 344.73p but I have already banked a small amount of losses in anticipation of further short-term downside after which we will Add further.

CPI was a bit of a headache and we have had to bank some losses to regain control but our average is now only 538.2p so we have weathered the storm. However, it seems to have run out of steam and there will probably be further weakness to come and it is likely to be booted out of FTSE100 in March so I have resolved to sell next week @ >= 526p.

I think it is all about making the best of bad situations by minimizing losses as much as possible through Adding on weakness and Reducing on strength without going too overweight other than at the very early stages of the battle.

[invisage] 28/1/2017 10:54

No point taking paper losses if the share is likely to recover long term.

Not sure why you took a hit on BMS .. It pays you to wait whilst it recovers.

If they cut the dividend that would be sending a different message to investors..maintaining the dividend implies confidence from the board

[gateside] 28/1/2017 10:20

When a share has gone down and your sitting on a loss, you seem to usually average down. Do you ever sell loss making shares or just hang onto them till they are (eventually) in profit. Just curious about different investing strategies.

[gateside] 28/1/2017 10:14

Correction.... portfolio is -0.17%It was a very poor week for my shares last week. Not quite sure why I underperformed the FTSE so much last week.

[nasdaqpat] 28/1/2017 08:26

Buying HSBC's FTSE250 tracker yesterday has highlighted the recent under performance of the FTSE250 in comparison to FTSE100. Having said that, it did put in an ath of 18607 on 4 Oct 2016 which represented a 24.44% rally from the 27 Jun 2016 low of 14952...it closed yesterday @ 18191.

Good to have some domestic focus because the International focus is largely catered for by the dollar earning heavyweights in the FTSE100 albeit companies like RTO (FTSE250) also generate most of their earnings in dollars.

Will be looking to de-risk our portfolio further next week by offloading more individual companies that have had satisfactory rallies and then, if appropriate, beef up the trackers or Add to anchor stocks like BARC or SHP. I have set exit targets for 16 of our 45 companies albeit, if the UK market deteriorates further, many of these target SPs will not be reached and we will therefore likely continue to hold.

[gateside] 27/1/2017 23:21

Even worse!

PZC dropped on results

And badly received results from Whitbread and Unilever hurt ABF

ABF had a good trading update this month and the company are doing well, but they went down when Next has poor results and now down when Unilever had poor results. But Primark and ABF's Groceries sector of the Market are doing well. There seems to be no end in sight of their share price decline, despite good results.

Add to that mix, you also have my Utility shares which have been lackluster, again despite good results! The Markets are mad!

Portfolio is -0.1%

[invisage] 27/1/2017 22:58

My YTD is -0.1%

[nasdaqpat] 27/1/2017 22:29

Invisage had a good day today - possibly up c0.50% - but I may also have over egged his performance for the week so I have lowered my estimate for him as well.

[nasdaqpat] 27/1/2017 22:26

Yes, I forgot about BMS for you and VOD was down (06.19%) on the week. Add to that weakness in AZN, GSK, ABF, BP. & PZC only partially offset by strength in HSBA, RIO & DGE...so maybe you lost as much as c(0.75%) on the week so my revised estimate leaves you @ +0.11%.

[gateside] 27/1/2017 19:37

Think my week has been far worse than your prediction. I'll reluctantly check my figures!

[nasdaqpat] 27/1/2017 17:09

Our investments market performed against the FTSE100 today with a 0.25% improvement as opposed to 0.32% for FTSE100. Of our remaining 45 shares, we had 27 Shares Up, 14 Down & 4 Unchanged.

The week as a whole was difficult with various companies posting adverse updates. Our investments ended up declining (00.84%) which was a significant under performance against the FTSE100 which was Down (00.19%) (7198:7184). Overall, our assets were Down (00.48%) on the week. The calendar year performance table is shown below :-

FTSE AS~~~~~+00.91%~~(3873:3897 + 00.29% Dividend Yield)
FTSE100~~~~~+00.88%~~(7143:7184 + 00.31% Dividend Yield)
FTSE250~~~~~+00.85%~~(18077:18191 + 00.22% Dividend Yield)
Videans~~~~~+00.24%~~(Too many profit warnings)
Invisage~~~(00.10%)~~(Tobacco helped partially offset broader losses)
Gateside~~~(00.17%)~~(Quite a few blobs amongst larger caps)

Overall stock level increased to 59.6% from 57.3% at the end of last week. Decided to move further away from individual companies and, consequently, sold 7 of our shares and partially replaced with 2 more tracker shares for our SIPPs (a FTSE 250 and an All Share tracker). These will be Added to in due course.

[nasdaqpat] 27/1/2017 15:49

Also eliminated IWG from our portfolio so back to 45 companies with stock level @ 59.7%.

[nasdaqpat] 27/1/2017 10:18

Bought an initial tranche of XASX (DB X-Trackers FTSE All Share Tracker) in my SIPP. Now 46 companies and stock level 60.7%.

[nasdaqpat] 27/1/2017 09:56

Bought an initial tranche of HMCX (HSBC FTSE250 Tracker) in wife's SIPP. Now 45 companies and stock level 59.9%.