Wpp Share Discussion Threads

[gateside] 23/11/2016 21:15

I think it's impossible to say where the FTSE100 is going this year and next.

There have been so many unpredictable events. The Polls did not suggest Brexit would win or a Trump victory. Both events were forecast to be catastrophic for the Markets, but both have seen the Markets go up, especially for Brexit.

What will happen in 2017 - We have elections in France and Germany - will mainstream parties win? No-one knows? Will May call a UK election in 2017? Will May actually trigger Article 50 in March?

What will happen between the Russians and NATO?

What will happen to Oil and OPEC?

Then there are always 'Black swan' events that will always happen from time to time!

.... Verdict - stay invested and re-invest those dividends and ride the ups and downs.

[gateside] 23/11/2016 18:22

8 up, 2 level, 14 down.

[invisage] 23/11/2016 17:00

12 up 20 down

[nasdaqpat] 23/11/2016 16:39

Modestly under performed FTSE100 today with just 14 Shares Up, 32 Down and 2 Unchanged. Took a few gains early on so stock level reduced to 62.9%.

[nasdaqpat] 23/11/2016 16:16

Hammond appears to have taken a leaf out of the City Slickers book by suggesting low key targets e.g National Debt up to just under £2 trillion to make the deficit/borrowing figures easier to beat in the future. Generally uninspiring and disappointing, IMHO.

[invisage] 23/11/2016 11:52

I've let go of NICL for a small profit.

Down to 34 holdings now.

[nasdaqpat] 23/11/2016 09:54

FTSE took just 1 day to decline (04.10%) from 6997 on 10 Nov to 6710 on 11 Nov. Compare that with the 8 days it has taken to reach the earlier today 6881 which is still only a 59.58% recovery of 6997:6710.

Doesn't bode well, IMHO!

[invisage] 22/11/2016 19:26

Yep very good day

26 up, 2 flat, 6 down

ADM and DLG best performers, DTG, BMS, ABF, RMV continues to rally

GENL was up 5% one point but ended the day down 4.7% rather annoyingly

[gateside] 22/11/2016 18:10

Excellent day today.18 up2 levelJust 4 down

[nasdaqpat] 22/11/2016 16:45

Our Shares market performed today with 32 Shares Up, 14 Down and 2 Unchanged. Stock level 64.3%.

Pharmies dire today and XAR is giving me cause for concern.

[nasdaqpat] 22/11/2016 09:20

I agree with some of what you say, Invisage, and it is certainly difficult to 'time' the market. However, no one is suggesting that a sensible course of action is to be out of the equity market completely. It is merely a matter of degree.

Clearly, if a market is in a Bull run (and there are different types of Bull) and has put in a decent size correction then a larger investment percentage is warranted (personally I would only have up to 85% invested as there may be further downside and opportunities to Buy or Add at ridiculously cheap prices). Similarly, if the market looks to have reached an interim top (need to differentiate between a Segmental and Phase top) then profits should be taken and an investment level of about 30% would not be unreasonable.

Currently we are occupying the middle ground @ c64% because it could go either way although further upside next year should be forthcoming as the current cyclical Bull started in Feb 2016 and we are currently, IMHO, in a secular/super cycle Bull. Of course, the real challenge is to make money when the market is is in a Secular Bear which, hopefully, won't start for another 6 or 7 years or so.

[invisage] 22/11/2016 08:56

Pat I guess I'm reasonably bullish on the markets given I'm almost fully investedI think best to stay invested very hard to call markets Imo....too many emotions flying around and rallies come out of nowhere.If your not in it you lose. Ultimately markets go up over the long term so it makes more sense Imo to be invested than not especially when the alternative is almost 0% on cash!I've read more people lose from trying to call the top and thus being out of the market then they do in a crash. When markets crash they tend to bounce back very quickly obviously the depression and Japan are rare exceptions.

[invisage] 22/11/2016 08:40

Decent start to the day.

[gateside] 21/11/2016 23:31

Sounds like your onto a good strategy and using Trackers for it makes every sense. Sometimes one has to endure the extra costs of re-jigging ones portfolio, and hopefully you'll soon recoup the costs involved. And then go onto out perform the market.

[nasdaqpat] 21/11/2016 21:37

Another point regarding your question, Gateside, is that individual companies are liable to surprise to the upside (and downside) but it is quite unusual for indices to 'break out'...especially FTSE100.

At what level do you guys think FTSE will finish 2016 on and for that matter what about the next couple of years?

[nasdaqpat] 21/11/2016 21:23

Yes, one won't get it right every time but staggering your sales helps. For example, you might sell 20% after a 4% rally, another 20% after 5% and another 20% after 6% etc etc. However, I would expect to be shrewder than that because I would have a reasonable idea of how much each wave & segment is likely to accrue and adapt my Reductions and Adds accordingly.

In any event, there is always another rally waiting in the wings as long as one is patient.

[gateside] 21/11/2016 21:15

But what happens when you sell at high levels and the Market keeps on rising. How will missing out on extended rallies limit the performance of your portfolio?

[nasdaqpat] 21/11/2016 21:14

LOL! Thought as much.

[gateside] 21/11/2016 21:12

Today was a Gateside day. 13 up, 2 level and just 9 down.

[nasdaqpat] 21/11/2016 19:27

Difficult question but I would estimate about 4% of portfolio expended on costs. However, based on a portfolio of 60 companies, I reckon to make about 6% extra by Reducing at high levels and Adding back at lower levels.

By using FTSE trackers, I expect to reduce the number of companies held to about 36 so that will reduce costs and, as I've already partially explained, the use of Trackers is tailor made for the Add & Reduce game so further benefits should accrue.

[invisage] 21/11/2016 18:42

pat

What % of your portfolio have you spent YTD on broker commissions and stamp duty?

I have spent about 2% but have received 1% in dividends to offset this cost.

I think this is too expensive to run a portfolio and this is the main reason I have gone more into trackers.

I basically asked myself what would I be comfortable holding regardless of market conditions, it is trackers. Obviously not fun losing money in a down market....but at least it is more than likely to come back up so it is ok if you have time to wait plus dividends to average down etc.

[invisage] 21/11/2016 18:37

Underperformed FTSE today

GENL best performer though up 10% but well placed for a decent day tomorrow, futures are up.

[nasdaqpat] 21/11/2016 16:39

Our shares significantly under performed FTSE100 today with only 12 shares finishing Up, 32 Down and 4 Unchanged. Overall stock level is 64.1% with FTSE trackers @ 44.2%.

Would have done better to dump those 9 shares held in KV's cash a/c but that would have meant a significant reduction in stock as not too keen on Adding to tracker funds at current level!

Today was a Gateside day with Oils and Miners outperforming!

[nasdaqpat] 21/11/2016 15:06

As there is no stamp duty with trackers and the spreads are relatively tight then costs are more or less irrelevant (certainly for our portfolio @ £4.95 per trade) so trading can be carried out as often as necessary. The important thing is to be heavily loaded towards the base of a wave and to bank gains/profits towards the top of a wave and thereby reduce ones's holding.

My analysis has focused on discernible rallies of 4% or more on the FTSE and over the last 4 years starting from 2013 the number of such rallies has been 9, 5, 12 & 11 respectively which is a lot fewer than I expected so it is important to make money on each rally. The average share price of one's holding will fluctuate based on when one Adds to the holding and it is important to keep this as low as possible.

Assuming you had a sum of money available in your tracker pot, how much would you currently have invested? In other words, are we on the verge of a 4%+ rally or not because, if we are not, then ideally one will be holding the minimum amount (which might be zero)?