Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 11/8/2016 20:06

Immunocare has some of the hallmarks of a real game changer. Impressive looking.

[p1nkfish] 05/8/2016 16:41

There will be new issuance.
It's alluded to in the results.

I like the large listed holdings as they tend to also add ballast as soightly safer havens when a storm hits.

I hold and expect a fund raise.

[minerve] 05/8/2016 11:10

I sold at the start for about 14% profit. I have bought a tranche this week to start building up a long-term holding. Companies invested in here always take longer and need more capital than people expect or would like. I liked the idea of the fund holding blue chips as they help cash-calls with their dividend payments. Without them the spectre of Woodford new issuance looms; just another risk you need to manage.

[toffeeman] 05/8/2016 10:22

It is not easy to place a value on unquoted investments - that's one of the reasons for buying a stock like this (one hopes that the investment team is better than a single punter) - if a couple of the unquoted wildcats become a leader in a big market, then WPCT could double (or more) in value - that is the investment case for this stock.

I subscribed at the start and sold for a 13% profit (the Woody short-term effect) - but if I re-buy I would do so as a long term hold and so for me the question is gauging the entry point.

I would forecast that this is unlikely to go below 60p even in a market melt-down - so a purchase at 80 would seem a sensible entry point.

bwtfdik

[p1nkfish] 05/8/2016 10:22

The word 'patient' says it all. Patience in the markets is 5-10 yrs in my book. 12 months, 3 yrs, not really it. Patient, at least a full business cycle.

"The National Bureau of Economic Research is the private nonpartisan nonprofit organization that determines the official starts and ends of business cycles. The time from one economic peak to the next, or one recessive trough to the next, is considered a business cycle. From the year 1945 to the year 2009, the NBER defined eleven cycles, with the average cycle lasting a bit over 5-1/2 years."

[p1nkfish] 04/8/2016 21:05

They should be applying accepted valuation metrics.
Will be interested to see how it copes with any general market sell off.
It is one for a 5-10 yr outlook. If the 10.98% or so.down over the year is a worry then not one to consider and it could get hit a real pasting if a panic sets in. It is reasonaby well spread, very many holdings.

[the oxford whale] 04/8/2016 20:51

So if the value of the unquoted companies is based on sales projections then the current NAV here is even more overvalued than I thought. You can bet your bottom dollar that the real value (ie the valuation that they would be able to raise further cash at) of most of these companies is at least 25% below what woodford got in at (seeing as he bought a load of stuff at almost the peak of biotech valuations). Are they really being honest about what the true NAV here is?

[riskvsreward] 04/8/2016 17:48

I must say it is not impressive.

I know this is suppose to be about long term, but one needs to bear in mind long terms is made up of a few short terms.

True good fund manager is about consistency

True good fund manager is about superior risk adjusted return. But unfortunately we have here a high risk low return case.

[p1nkfish] 04/8/2016 17:15

Bio are will be coming back into favour. Down considerably in US but starting to look attractive again. CRX are part a bellwether to me now as contract research for ADMETOX prior to FDA (or epa for chemicals) and they are busy. A good sign for the pipeline.

WPCT have mentioned another raising but time wasn't appropriate. They will do so at some point.

Brexit expected to have no long term impact, other imbalances are likely to put it in shadow in terms of size and scale.

My thought is how 'risk off' sensitive will WPCT now be it has reduced some of the large cap stalwart holdings to further fund the smaller valuation holdings?

We could find out in the next 18 months. Shouldn't try to time it but a big risk off event might see this get hit more than it otherwise would now the large cap holdings (safety) are reduced as a %.

[netnut] 04/8/2016 13:01

Cut and pasted some points from the half year report. See the full report for finer details. ~ Netnut


-- good operational progress among many holdings
-- a number of companies have delivered strong returns
-- negative sentiment towards health care sector impacted returns
-- the Company's net asset value fell 10.8% to 86.81p
-- two additional directors appointed to the Board

[a0148009] 29/7/2016 16:20

Looking interesting ticking up, share price 3% discount to NAV and chart looks promising
touching on the 50 day MA and 15 months since the company came to the market. Portfolio progressing had a dip today cross with myself missing the low eighties. Not that long ago institutions were prepared to pay 120!
AO

[toffeeman] 22/7/2016 13:55

Liquid Kid MBA .
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MBA = Massive Bowel Action

[escapetohome] 21/7/2016 23:22

Timbo003 keep up the good work, i have always found your meeting reports to be very helpful and it is a comfort to know that you can bring many years experience to bear.

Re the gamble comment , i took the underlying thrust to mean, the financial experts dont always get it right, as they are financial people - not scientists. And also underlining your own exceptionally well reasoned call on this share.

So well done and keep up the truly outstanding work.

A talented investor calling this right where an expert perhaps hasnt failed, but now there is opportunity if investors choose to buy this share at a much lower price if they like the share ( if they followed timbos advice)

[timbo003] 21/7/2016 22:56

>>>>>pete-bane

I am not running any sort of Vendetta against OXP and I hold no grievance against the directors, it's just that I know the area they work on extremely well (it used to be my day job) and I have been predicting the demise of this technology for several years (you can see all of my polite well reasoned posts throughout the years if you go through the OXP thread).

If I have deterred some less well informed people from investing in OXP then they are now better off as a result and I have performed a useful service, so job well done.

[pete_bane] 21/7/2016 22:39

timbo. The 'news' might have been of passing interest to me (and possibly one or two others) if, a. I didn't know it already and if, b. it hadn't been presented in such an emotive fashion.

It's very apparent that you are conducting some sort of vendetta elsewhere against OXP and the people who are running it, and, it appears, in a rather paltry ineffectual way, against Woodford. Otherwise why "Another Woodford gamble"? That seems to be the modus operandi of the ineffable but hopefully departed numbskull.

I think your approach, and his, is essentially illogical and irrational. If you want me to, I'll explain why, although it's probable you already know.

[timbo003] 21/7/2016 18:28

>>>pete_bane

Would you rather not have known about this then?

[pete_bane] 21/7/2016 16:45

What was the relevance of your last post, timbo? (In a funny colour and using the word 'terrible') You refer to a glitch in one of 68 stocks in the portfolio.

Did you expect that to have an effect on the share price of WPCT? If you did, you were laughably mistaken. After your post the share price has gone up significantly, hasn't it?

Are you liquid bowels (the world's worst stockpicker) in disguise?

[timbo003] 20/7/2016 07:30

Another Woodford gamble reports terrible (but predictable) news this morning

He owned around 29% of this one

[woodpecker25] 12/7/2016 15:14

Thanks Minerve, makes sense.

[minerve] 12/7/2016 12:36

Valuation of the unquoted companies is based on sales projections that the company makes. The earlier the stage of development the more erroneous the projections tend to be and could be based on the projections of sales to one client, or via one partner which may or may not materialise. This is another reason that makes investment at this stage high risk. Personally, I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the price and discount if you are long-term. Believe in the companies, the portfolio and Neil and invest long-term on that basis.

[woodpecker25] 12/7/2016 10:04

Or on the flipside, could you argue that the valuation of non quoted companies is more fact based (i.e. based on the accounts) and less reliant on investor sentiment...?

[toffeeman] 11/7/2016 17:25

I am not sure about the certainty of discount/premium as a significant proportion of the portfolio is not quoted and so valuation is at best a guess.