Wogen Share Discussion Threads

[kamitora] 07/3/2006 09:26

LONDON (AFX) - Shares in Wogen ran back 7 pence to 162-1/2 after the
international specialty metals and minerals trader cautioned that trading
conditions since the year end have been more challenging and since then have not
altered materially.
Turnover has remained in line with the its expectations, but the company has
seen a fall in prices for a number of key trading metals. Margins on trading
activities so far this year have been towards the lower end of the board's and
analysts' expectations.
Bridgewell Securities analyst Geoff Miller continued to recommend long term
investors regard any weakness in the shares on the back of the update as a
buying opportunity.
Miller downgraded his earnings forecasts, but he still expects a return on
equity in excess of the company's long term average.

[valhamos] 07/3/2006 09:14

Slapdash "As suspected not a secular growth story"

Did anybody say it was? And if it was, would it have floated last year at a P/E of 4 ? It's a commodity business in specialty metals where Wogen adds value through its knowledge base and customer relationships.

I bought just after the float and thought it was (and still is) good value. But the share price is always going to be volatile, like the price of the metals it trades. Investment success will come to those who can exploit that volatility.

Over the last few months you have been quite negative. Fair enough - obviously not your cup of tea; but why are you here?

[skyracer] 07/3/2006 08:36

Yes, nobody should be surprised, the CE flagged this in his 17 Jan results statement. Your first sentence sums it up Slap.

[slapdash] 07/3/2006 08:13

As suspected not a secular growth story just a highly cyclical geared play without any predictability. Floated just at the right time for the company but maybe not investors...

Slapper

[aleman] 10/2/2006 18:50

As the continuing short supply of tungsten mineral, increasing export cost, and deceasing export quantity, price of tungsten will continue to increase internationally in 2006. Price of APT may possibly reach USD300/MTU.

[aleman] 06/2/2006 16:01

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (6); Aluminum Products (2); Caustic Soda (21); Chemicals (24); Copper (8); Copper Products (2); Corrugated Containers (3)*; Energy (12); Natural Gas (42)*; Nickel; Oil Products; Paper; Plastics (18); Resins (7)*; Rubber (3); Steel (28); and Titanium.

Commodities Down in Price
Corrugated Containers*; Natural Gas*; Propylene; and Resins (2)*.

Commodities in Short Supply
Titanium is the only commodity reported in short supply.






RTI International Metals (RTI, news, msgs) is a metals company, it's true, but perhaps it's more accurate to think of this producer of titanium as a leveraged play on the continued recovery of the airline industry and the fortunes of big suppliers such as Boeing (BA, news, msgs). Sure, RTI International sells to other markets -- the chemical industry uses its strip and plate products and the oil drilling industry uses the company's subsea manifolds, but RTI lives and dies with aerospace sector. Right now the living is good. Airbus booked record plane orders in 2005, and Boeing beat its rival on the value of orders $120 billion to $100 billion. No wonder that the few analysts who follow RTI are looking for earnings growth of 106% in 2006. RTI is actually more leveraged to the aerospace recovery than even Boeing is. For Boeing's stock, the last 52 weeks have been great -- its shares returned 35% as of Jan. 17. RTI did better -- its shares returned 101% for the 52 weeks. All those orders booked in 2005 by Boeing and Airbus should keep RTI shares humming in 2006.




Titanium Stocks are Hot

Global Shortage is Driving Prices

Today, titanium can be found in the golf clubs and Ray-Ban sunglasses of China's newly rich and in aircraft parts. Growing demand for metals has boosted global prices to record highs in the past year, leaving metals such as titanium in short supply for producers.

Ferro-titanium prices have risen more than sixfold in the last two years to about US$26 (HK$202.8) a kilogram, as a resurgence of the aircraft and arms sectors have worsened a global deficit. Spot titanium sponge, extracted from ore to make the ingots, is trading at about US$31.50 a kg, more than five times what it cost a year ago. Mainland spot prices have more than quadrupled to between 200,000 yuan and 220,000 yuan (HK$188,120 and HK$206,932) a tonne.

China consumed about one-eighth of the world's titanium last year and imported 4,197 tonnes, up 10.8 percent from a year earlier. Analysts predict the global titanium sponge output will rise to about 100,000 tonnes this year from about 80,000 tonnes in 2002. This year's output is expected to result in a 10,000-tonne shortfall for the raw material.

China's consumption of titanium products reached an all-time peak of 10,629 tonnes last year. Titanium sponge output rose 17 percent to 4,809 tonnes, while ingot output climbed 9 percent to 11,820 tonnes, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association.

Sumitomo Titanium and Toho Titanium Stocks Soar on Exploding Earnings

Sumitomo Titanium (5726) has seen its operating earnings balloon from JPY1,123 million in FY03.3 to a forecast JPY14,250 million in FY07.03, while Toho Titanium's (5727) operating earnings have soared from JPY1,970 million to a forecast JPY12,833 million in FY07.03. Titanium demand could tighten further with the introduction of new fighter aircraft in the US and UK.

[siskinbird] 03/2/2006 13:50

jg1882
Have a look back through the thread to see plenty of discussion on why the valuation is "undemanding" as you put it, and in particular look at the statements from the company itself in the recent results. In summary, it appears to be a very unpredictable business.

If demand and prices stay high (and increasing) then this should be a real winner, in my opinion, but it's a risky one.

[aleman] 02/2/2006 13:45

Can the great results from RTZ today tell us anything about the outlook for WGN?

"Global economic growth in 2005 showed continued resilience and demand from
China remained strong. The low level of inventories and limited additional
supply kept markets tight. 2006 has opened strongly and, notwithstanding global
economic imbalances, the outlook remains positive."

[krishall] 31/1/2006 14:20

In 3 months there have been 'only' 129 postings on a single WGN thread on advfn - which by advfn bb standards is pretty low - therefore not much of a retail following even given a few newspaper mentions.
I think the present forecasts for 2006 for WGN are fairly conservative.If this becomes more apparent later in the year then there might be reasonable retail interest. Haven't got a crystal ball but would personally anticipate the share price to be about 220p before the summer (and at that price will still have lots of potential for further gains).

[jg1882] 31/1/2006 10:07

Its all a bit quiet on here considering that we have had a fairly useful rise out of this since results.... A bit of discussion on future prospects would help everyone i think in the longer term. Valuation from my perspective remains hideously undemanding in the context of a high yield and continuing high metals prices. Management retain a fairly significant interest in the company so interests of shareholders and management seem to be very much in line. All of this points to a good story for the forseeable future. Holding from 151 so very happy with how things have been going to date.

[krishall] 18/1/2006 18:47

ram2... my feelings entirely.
Also most metal plays have the present favourable sentiment / commodity prices factored in. WGN does not yet... so more potential for significant if the management get it right ( - and the management of WGN do seem somewhat better than some of the companies out there.

[rambutan2] 18/1/2006 17:22

but their track record certainly suggests that they will make the best of the macro conditions out there. plus, they are expanding operations. im happy to hold and gain access to an area of the metals mkt which i otherwise couldnt.

[thecleaner] 18/1/2006 16:49

Slapper

Its all a bit of a mystery, thats half the fun.

TC

[slapdash] 18/1/2006 11:57

Well personally I'm glad I'm not in this.... we have no idea what the next year's results could be... losses/profits.... growth/decline.... all a mystery....

just a gamble..

Slapper

[kamitora] 18/1/2006 07:49

Tempus (hold):

[fromtheblue] 17/1/2006 11:22

As Bridgewell have a neutral stance I decided to completely sell out and take my profits (from 130). I agree with krishall on trading with such a wide spread. However the volatility may be more than we expect - I have little knowledge of metals trading. I am not taking any short position - others may, but I will wait for a price to re-enter if it drops sufficiently (140p).

[krishall] 17/1/2006 10:02

Jaygino... my feelings entirely - it certainly was no surprise that this years trading conditions / returns would be forecast to be noticably worse than last years. Wogan are a specialist company with the experience and contacts to take advantage of the 'China' factor.

[jaygino] 17/1/2006 09:46

Results as expected, although was hoping for a bit guidance for current year.
Management probably being cautious with statements and guidance from house broker. IMO, a strategic move from management - as this is their 1st year as a listed company any suprises to the upside would give them much more credibility. Growth in China and India should ensure that there are no dramatic falls in metal prices and I expect that the current forecast EPS of 20.79p may well be revised up during the year. Even with no upgrades, at current prices, it still leaves them on a PER of ca. 8 - together with a yield of over 4.3%, it still looks much too cheap. I will be looking to accumulate on any further dips.

[krishall] 17/1/2006 09:34

As regards trading on it's volatilty it has a rather large spread which would seem a deterrent.

[spooky] 17/1/2006 09:24

Wogen is a well run organisation,it is not the only company that operates in an unpredictable business.It will take time for the market to work out what it is willing to pay for the likely medium term earnings stream.This will probably be a volatile investment for an extended period,perhaps permanently,which obviously presents opportunities to make money for the astute investor :-o)

[stevemarkus] 17/1/2006 08:41

I like the look of it too. Note that the chairman does not say that current trading is sluggish, just that the outlook is less likely to be exceptional than this year. Having said that, have you seen prices of precious metals such as palladium, platinum? I think we may see some short-term selling, but I am happy to hold for the time being.

[siskinbird] 17/1/2006 08:39

Spooky
Parts of the company's statement seem to go out of their way to emphasise that this is an unpredictable business (eg "The turnover and margins achieved on individual metals can vary significantly from one year to the next, depending on supply and demand dynamics in the market."). If it is difficult for the management to predict turnover and margins, then there isn't much chance for brokers and punters like ourselves. In other words it's a fairly risky investment. Having said that, it's an established company new to market, making a profit, which is a fairly rare beast, and I rather like the look of it.

[fromtheblue] 17/1/2006 08:31

It all explains why the float price was so low, factoring in the expectation of more challenging conditions - however the company continues to make substantial profits and will also pay a dividend in future. I have reduced my stake this morning, but still think this is a good long term stock to be in with the exposure to China where growth will continure unabated IMO.