Wichford Share Discussion Threads

[edward hopper] 22/10/2009 13:59

why are we being shorted like mad?

[harmonics] 20/10/2009 07:03

If any of 447 is pointed towards me I can't read it because it's filtered

[utsushi] 19/10/2009 22:08

Commercial property market delivered the highest monthly price growth for more than three years in September.

FT today, 19th October.

Real world perhaps catching up with valuation?

[quazie12] 19/10/2009 17:20

"There will have been holders here ranging from circa 180p down to 20p."

Not Harmonics tho...expert investor he he he

[patviera] 19/10/2009 13:27

21smithy....you are a bit confused...noone bought stk at 6p...they may have taken up rights but the ordinary stk fell from 30 to 12p to compensate...so anyone who bought at 30p and took up their rights will only have a small profit.The real reason shares have been weak is because the rump went into flippers hands..ie short term holders.

[harmonics] 19/10/2009 11:40

21Simthy
I guess we are all entitled to our opinion.
Maybe 10-11p is right for this share price at the moment.
The main gain imo will be when the sector picks up.
I don't see much downside to this share at current levels before it heads north (sometime soon hopefully)

[21simthy] 19/10/2009 11:28

Harmonics.

Do you think i care about what serial pump and dumpers post about me ?

Not in the slightest.

Surely after a 7 for 1 rights, it's wrong to look at the chart and compare
old price and say the current one is cheap.

So in old money the current price is equal to around say 60-70p so it's
hardly the bargain it first appears or maybe i have that wrong ?

[masurenguy] 19/10/2009 08:46

The 6p rights issue price is irrelevant. You had to be an existing holder to qualify. There will have been holders here ranging from circa 180p down to 20p. Even if you assume that recent holders who bought close to the bottom were averaged in at around 30p - 40p then their average cost after the rights issue would be 9p - 10p and in reality it is more likely to be a bit higher than that in overall terms.

Therefore there will be few holders or traders in a position to take a worthwhile profit at under 12p and of course there will be many who see this as a long term hold.

[21simthy] 19/10/2009 07:56

What you have wrote is a load of rubbish !

I'm sorry i'm not ramping it like everybody else but you cant
get away from that recent rights issue, that a lot of stock and
a lot of profit for those who took part at the current price.

I rarely short shares.

[harmonics] 19/10/2009 06:29

21simthy
You are one of the most infamous shorters on ADVFN, you need a new handle mate!
When anyone sees your handle they know it will be a deramp before they read the text!

[21simthy] 18/10/2009 21:21

I'm not laughing, 929 million new shares at 6p recently, punters
can ramp this as much as they want but i cannot see it going anywhere
in a rush especially as current price is a 50%+ profit for all those
who took part, take a while to clear those profit takers too !

[dnfa1975] 18/10/2009 19:55

seven-for-one rights issue at 6p per new share



6p would be a nice entry price

[patviera] 18/10/2009 18:40

masurenguy...what other link is there? i bought 500/= at 10.25...i believe its the weak holders from placing at 10p that are bailing out.

[harmonics] 18/10/2009 06:16

If I can buy at 10 or below I'm going to buy more.

[empirestate] 17/10/2009 19:21

picked up a decent amount yesterday at 10 and 10.25, looks like some decent support at 10 offered.
thx Mas

[quazie12] 17/10/2009 12:51

Masurenguy - 17 Oct'09 - 12:10 - 432 of 432

Excellent post Mas thanks for passing on

q

[masurenguy] 17/10/2009 12:10

Interesting and informative post from another thread commenting on the 28% of the lease portfolio that has less than 7 years to expiry.

I have looked at the lease durations of the portfolio in light of the highlighted risk of government tenants wishing to break leases due to cut backs. From the interim results: 71.8% of the UK portfolio has 7 years or more until expiry or break option on the lease (the UK Core Portfolio). The Active Portfolio contains the remaining 28.2% of the properties, with lease durations under 7 years. The WAULT being 3.60 years. These are properties that could perhaps cause consternation, however the board are also fully aware of that and are seeking renegotiations or sales.

Lets look at some of the individual properties in this portfolio:

Waterside Court, Leeds: leased to the Home Office department of immigration. Break in 2010. Taken from a government report: "Waterside Court in Leeds is fairly unique in the IND in that it has so many key areas in the asylum process in one place. 2. It has the immigration service, the reporting centre, the National Asylum Support Service (NASS), the management of Complex Cases Unit and has the removals team who are responsible for removing any final casework barriers and ensuringthat NASS support is terminated in a timely manner." They also have a detention centre there, for holding those being processed. My opinion on this property is that: a) there is unlikely to be a severe cutback here and: b) even if there is moving may be more costly than staying, to fit out a building for a pretty unique purpose, I imagine, would not be cheap.

St Anne House, Croydon: leased to Home Office department for Immigration. Break in 2012. Here there may be external pressure for the Home Office to relocate (apparently the building is known as "immigration central"!) as the queues of asylum seekers "project a bad image for Croydon". However the department's hub appears to be Croydon with the IND department having over 150k sq ft of leased space in Croydon so unless they feel they can pick up a well located property, that is either cheaper (currently roughly £18.30 p sq ft which isn't overly expensive but Wichford may negotiate) or is newer (the main concern in my eyes) then can't see them moving.

These two account for 15% of this portfolio's revenue and are the two I identify as being the closest to their break clauses. While I wouldn't say I am sure they are not going anywhere, I would say that I would be surprised if they did.

[rcktmn] 17/10/2009 09:04

thanks sandlab

[sandlab] 16/10/2009 22:37

Wichford building on recovery hopes
Created: 15 October 2009 Written by: Claer Barrett
BULL POINTS:
Rights issue underpins finances
Property markets perking up
Safe tenants
Highly geared to reviving property market

BEAR POINTS:
Share price far above net asset value
Threat of government cutbacks

Shares in property company Wichford have suffered an almighty de-rating since their 2007 peak of 64p, but the factors that pummelled them down could help build them back up now that the property market seems to be turning.

And by far the biggest plus? A stable occupancy rate of 99 per cent across its portfolio, because most of it is leased to government tenants in the UK and Europe. Furthermore, 80 per cent of the portfolio has about 10 years until lease expiry, and governments are hardly likely to default. "Rental risk is ultra low and, in the current environment, this marks Wichford out," says analyst Mike Foster at stockbroker Fairfax, who has just issued a buy note on the company.

Financial risk is also much reduced. Wichford has raised £52m in a heavily discounted but fully underwritten seven-for-one rights issue at 6p per new share. The proceeds will largely be used to repair and strengthen covenant breaches, and the debt maturity of its loans are set to be favourably extended as a result. However, £30m has been earmarked to purchase new properties on long leases. In addition, existing cash balances of £35m and an expected £20m from property disposals will be put towards further acquisitions as the market bottoms.

WICHFORD (WICH)
ORD PRICE: 11p MARKET VALUE: £117m
TOUCH: 10.5-11p 12M HIGH 19p LOW: 4.5p
DIVIDEND YIELD: 5.5% TRADING STOCK: nil
PREMIUM TO NAV: 162%
INVEST PROPERTIES: £541m NET DEBT: See text


Year to 30 Sep Net asset value (p) Pre-tax profit (£m) Earnings per share (p) Dividend per share (p)
2006 87 53.0 21.7 3.8
2007 84 -9.6 -3.4 4.1
2008 36 -130.0 -39.3 2.9
2009* 3 -44.4 -13.6 1.5
2010* 4 15.5 2.5 0.6
% change +24 - - -60
NMS: 20,000

Matched bargain trading

BETA: 0.5

The portfolio's European exposure is also attractive (a quarter of rents are received in Euros), and nearly two-thirds of Wichford's leases are index-linked and are thus protected against any jump in inflation.

The key risk is cutbacks in public-sector spending leading to options to break leases being exercised. That said, Wichford's portfolio isn't exactly at the expensive end - the average rent is just £12 per sq ft. Investors should also consider the risk that Wichford overpays for new investments because there is already lively competition for long-rented properties.

SHARE TIP SUMMARY:
BuyHigh occupancy rates and low risk of tenants defaulting explains the big premium to net assets at which Wichford's shares trade. Even so, Wichford is hugely geared to a reviving property market. Broker Fairfax estimates that just a 0.5 percentage point improvement in property yields would add 3.5p to Wichford's net assets, almost double their current level. The broker's forecast (see table) does not reflect an anticipated revaluation gain of £6m in 2009-10 as property values recover. The 0.6p dividend, which is promised by Wichford's bosses, helps to sweeten the risks, too. Buy.

[rcktmn] 16/10/2009 20:15

Yep, looks as though it was 6p... still, will top up if it gets to that level...have put these on the back burner... it's risky but some of my other shares are doing well so looking for speculatives that could recover/do well.

Anyone able to post the IC article ?

[dnfa1975] 16/10/2009 19:36

rcktmn - 16 Oct'09 - 16:33 - 426 of 427

Guys, despite the IC tip.. I'm now on board as of half an hr ago...can't see much more downside to this one now... onwards and upwards ! GL all



wasnt the placing 5p?

[harmonics] 16/10/2009 19:33

I am questioning my sanity here
I am thinking of buying more WICH stock.
I took a good look at the charts tonight I reckon this is ready for a rise how much rise and when I don't know

[rcktmn] 16/10/2009 16:33

Guys, despite the IC tip.. I'm now on board as of half an hr ago...can't see much more downside to this one now... onwards and upwards ! GL all