Whitbread Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 08/5/2019 13:40

FT Alphaville:

BE
And a weird little volume spike in Whitbread earlier.

Whitbread PLC (WTB:LSE): Last: 4,571, up 46 (+1.02%), High: 4,770, Low: 4,506, Volume: 387.44k

BE
............. leading to some speculation that Elliott may be adding. Very strictly speculation at this point, to be clear.

[essentialinvestor] 07/5/2019 15:54

Underlines the staff recruitment challenges:

[porsche1945] 07/5/2019 11:10

Airbnb is a much bigger threat to these hotel chains than people are taking on board, Hilton been around 100 years worth 20 bil air been around a few years and worth 35, they are huge and there will be others. The competion is huge and ugly. All this stuff, retailers, estate agents, hotels, all of it, are standing on a burning platform, these businesses are all going to come under pressure becos the management isnt great and the business models are backward looking, so much of this stuff with declining business models and the ftse 350 full of it compared to US market.

[philanderer] 07/5/2019 10:00

updated:

7th may Numis hold -
2nd may JP Morgan Caz overweight tp 5100p
2nd may Barclays overweight tp 5000p
2nd may UBS neutral tp 4800p
1st may JP Morgan overweight tp 5100p
30th april Morgan Stanley equal weight -
30th april RBC sector perform tp 4500p


30th april ++++ Results ++++

[philanderer] 05/5/2019 09:34

Activist Elliott renews attack on Whitbread by plotting radical overhaul of Premier Inn


Revered Wall Street activist Elliott Advisors is poised to renew its attack on Whitbread, putting it on a collision course with boss Alison Brittain for the second time in little over a year.

The Sunday Telegraph understands that Elliott is becoming increasingly frustrated by the leisure giant’s strategy of owning Premier Inn hotels outright, claiming that such a move is depressing the company’s share price and leaving it open to a cut-price hostile takeover.

Sources said the Paul Singer-founded fund, one of Whitbread’s biggest investors, wants it to offload chunks of its £5.8bn property portfolio.

...City sources said that Elliott, known for being one of the world’s most ­aggressive fund managers, wants Whitbread to sell 10-15pc of its hotel portfolio and “continue to be open-minded about the rest”.

Those close to the $35bn (£27bn) fund manager say it, and a number of other Whitbread investors, want Premier Inn to start operating hotels owned by other companies.

“It’s a strange position to be in to not have franchising or a management company,” said one person. “It’s a real outlier and the markets are punishing them for it.

“The biggest risk is that is someone comes and buys this whole business.”

[philanderer] 03/5/2019 16:14

Small top up today. Still my smallest holding :-)

[philanderer] 02/5/2019 08:40

Morning EI , you may get that price today or tomorrow.

[palace3] 01/5/2019 19:44

Typical dead cat bounce after dreadful fall. The loss of Costa ( money back to shareholders?) and reliant on one product too dicey business wise. Only saviour a take over.

[essentialinvestor] 01/5/2019 13:14

Should have had a few of these yesterday, thought we would see at least a
temporary oversold bounce, never mind will keep it on a watchlist.
Had hoped for under 44.

[ygor705] 01/5/2019 13:07

I do not understand why Barclays are buying WTB in what looks to be its proprietary fund (ie for its own account). Any views? Also see another institution now has a notifiable interest.

[philanderer] 01/5/2019 10:34

JP Morgan. OVERWEIGHT. TP 5100p. Cut from 5400p

[philanderer] 01/5/2019 08:33

I'll stick with what I hold for now as it's not one of my larger holdings.

RBC retain SECTOR PERFORM. TP 4500p. Cut from 4700p

[bountyhunter] 01/5/2019 07:00

Thanks but I didn't quite get the timing right. There might be some value here going forwards especially if taken over but too early to invest for that prospect imho.

[philanderer] 01/5/2019 06:56

bh, looks like a very good call made there.

[bountyhunter] 30/4/2019 22:26

They will be awarding themselves more options next now that they have depressed the share price! I got out a while ago after the Costa announcement due to lack of confidence in the current board.

[philanderer] 30/4/2019 20:24

Morgan Stanley noted that previous guidance for flat full-year profit before tax has been dropped and said the update points a £40mln-£50mln PBT headwind, suggesting modest downside to its £415m estimate but more to the City consensus of £443m. Analysts at the bank estimate that every 1% on RevPAR feeds through to £8m-£13m to EBIT, and that every 1,000 new rooms is roughly £8-10m to EBIT.

Looking at the shares Morgan Stanley said have "we no longer see the valuation as that attractive", with an 'equal-weight' rating.

Numis said its current assumption of a 2% fall in RevPAR "looks too optimistic and we see mid single digit downside to consensus estimates as a result" and while noting the structural growth prospects in both the UK and Germany and the strength of operating model and returns, expects the weak market RevPAR and negative earnings momentum will weigh on the share price in the near term.

Numis added that the £2bn tender offer "is an important part of the return of capital", noting that the use of a "variable price" offer will mean the price range is based on a volume-weighted average price of Whitbread's shares in a short period up to and including closing of the tender offer at the point of completion.

Proactiveinvestors.co.uk

[philanderer] 30/4/2019 16:33

First downgrade..

Numis to 'hold' from 'add'

[spacecake] 30/4/2019 16:19

I do hope WTB German hotel plan works out and can get some eps growth recovery going.

[philanderer] 30/4/2019 16:08

"Evident with the latest results is that the loss of Whitbread's diversification blanket, namely selling Costa, has left the business extremely dependent on a single industry. Therefore you should expect the market to now scrutinise every part of its hotel operations rather than just looking at the headline figures for a broader leisure conglomerate," said AJ Bell's Russ Mould.

Alliance News

[essentialinvestor] 30/4/2019 14:50

Occupancy is key in the hotel business, so a booming AirBnB sector
may be worth watching.

I'm not saying it's in any way a game changer, but a few points off occupancy
makes a difference to a company like WTB.

[jeffian] 30/4/2019 14:13

I really, really, HATE share buybacks, especially when described as a 'return of cash' to shareholders. Yes, yes, I understand the principle that reducing shares in issue bumps up NAV and EPS on the remaining shares, but in practice that does not often correlate to an equivalent rise in the share price. If I want to sell some of my shares, I can do so in the market; if I don't, where's my share of the cash being 'returned to shareholders'? In a case like this where a substantial part of the company's assets have been sold for cash, surely the appropriate action is to make a Return of Capital to all shareholders equally then carry out a general share consolidation?

[ygor705] 30/4/2019 13:49

Personally I am not too concerned about AirBnb.....the new Hub concept plus other initiatives in places like Cardiff to offer rooms at as low a price as £19 per night should keep WTB more competitive than many of its peers. Also, the longer BREXIT goes on then the more likely that UK hotel demand is likely to hold up. I am more concerned about the absence of news on the tender offer. To my mind, the Company's Board is in complete conflict with its shareholders on this issue and needs to tread carefully. The downbeat nature of today's announcement makes me wonder if the share price is being deliberately managed downwards for the benefit of the Board.

[essentialinvestor] 30/4/2019 11:31

There is one other aspect, and I've not seen this get any mention -Air BnB.

This is growing like a weed in the UK atm.

[essentialinvestor] 30/4/2019 11:21

A bit of an oversimplification here, but I think as a medium term investment
it boils down to whether WTB will be bid for before the next recession arrives.
There was some caution on the last update, which has been repeated today.

[porsche1945] 30/4/2019 09:55

A company that never fails to dissapoint, poor lacklustre management, the boss ex Lloyds, another terminal investment, these are heading back to 3800 trading range, think I would have sold the indebted hotel chain (uk brexit recession looming) and kept the coffee, Coke not daft. Shareholders get a poor ride with these, as Terry Smith says, ftse 350 filled with dross.