Wti Oil Etc Discussion Threads

[pedro57] 05/3/2016 15:19

Does anybody else see WTI as significantly undervalued at today's copper price and exchange rates?

We know that 4Q15 (calendar) C1 costs were $4,080 per tonne, which compares to Oct 2015 C1 costs of $4,361 per tonne. This implies a Dec 2015 C1 cost of $3,800 per tonne when analyzing the evolution of the mine.

Since then NAD has depreciated by another 2%, we have had favourable agreement on acid costs, which lowers C1 costs by at least 0.5%. This implies C1 costs currently of $3,700 per tonne or maybe even lower. There could also be further efficiency gains now where Tschudi has reached 17,000 tonne run-rate.

This with the current $5,000 per tonne copper price would imply a gross profit of $22m for WTI, which after deducting $13m for interest cost and operating costs mean a net profit of around $9m. This would imply EPS of 0.6p, which putting on a 5x PE means a 3p valuation. This could go even higher if rally in copper continues or C1 cash costs continue to decline.

What are your thoughts on my calculations? WTI looks like a steal at these levels.

[xcap] 04/3/2016 21:18

Cu broken $5000

[kingivor] 04/3/2016 19:33

$4909!- What price the equity here with copper an extra 10% or $5409/t? making free cash circa $15,000,000 pa - MC £40m / 4p anyone?
Gotta be worth a few grand punt on the Cu price.

[888icb] 04/3/2016 14:53

Copper at 4909.

[leedskier] 04/3/2016 12:44

Bloomberg - Global Stocks Advance With Copper on China Stimulus Speculation

[xcap] 04/3/2016 06:45

Biffa, agreed. No miner can influence spot price but they can control cost.

"Life of mine C1 costs expected to be reduced by 9 per cent to USD 3,865 per tonne of copper cathode."

This is impressive by any measure.

This and the possibility of a 3000 tpa increase in production

"Identified opportunity to increase processing capacity from 17,000 to 20,000 tonnes per annum."

.... will augment support from Orion, who still occupy a seat on the Board which further signifies on-going support. I would not not be surprised if Orion next year, when Cu price has consolidated, provide the $1.5m capex for increased production.

Notwithstanding the debt compare with CAML whose mcap is £157m with 13000 tons of Cu. We produce 17000 (although CAML is a class act)

This reminds me of POG when it hit 2p. In my view WTI should be heading much higher with a mcap of over £10m in the short term.

[mattjos] 03/3/2016 22:02

Kombat Copper (TSX-V:KBT)have announced mining startup today and intention to further explore to the West of Kombat

[biffa18] 03/3/2016 15:41

Copper needs to go up a lot more yet ..loans have to be paid !

[panamabob] 03/3/2016 13:29

looking good.Topped up.Copper up.

Could double in short order.

[888icb] 03/3/2016 12:08

Copper at a 3 month high and WTI up 10% today

[spights] 01/3/2016 22:50

hxxp://knoema.com/prujshc/copper-prices-forecast-long-term-to-2025

[leedskier] 01/3/2016 16:19

There certainly was some buying earlier.

[dixi] 01/3/2016 16:16

Presumably somebody was expecting something more exciting, or just speculation on knowledge of results being published today had driven this higher.

[leedskier] 01/3/2016 16:04

I am not sure which is more stupid:Aramaco for producing too much oil or RIO Tinto for producing too much copper.

[dhymeri] 01/3/2016 15:59

Not a particularly amazing RNS though..

[spights] 01/3/2016 15:24

Yehaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[888icb] 01/3/2016 12:22

Now Number 4 UP 27%

[888icb] 01/3/2016 10:45

Top 14 riser today UP 12.7%

[888icb] 23/2/2016 22:23

Top 15 riser today UP 17%.

[stav5001] 27/1/2016 17:44

Longer-term chart says it all, not that long ago it was 10P. Another AIM disaster

[mattjos] 21/1/2016 18:22

Indeed Forest. Will still take a long time before The 'Webster' smell goes away here. All the time he is in any way linked to the company, most will not believe a word that's reported.They have continued to duck the extent of the fraud at Central Ops & advise a full cost to the company.At current copper price this is only just hanging by its finger tips & will remain so, given the huge crushing debt load.At best, merely a mechanism for payment of salaries, wages and interest, after which there is nada left.There may be a couple of cashflow +ve years near the end of the life of Tschudi if they are lucky

[forest owlet] 21/1/2016 09:59

If the copper price were $6,000 per ton we would be celebrating a job well done by the new management. As it is, silent gloom...