Vt Group Share Discussion Threads

[advfntom] 19/12/2008 02:07

Am following seems to be lots of small sells - maybe companies staff raising cash for xmas ?

[tourist07] 18/7/2008 01:15

Did I say nice holding? Lol, not at £5.63 it wasn't! Recovered a bit now.

Surprised no-one folows this, just look at the chart .... get all those calls right and you'd be a millionaire in no time ...

[tourist07] 02/6/2008 11:14

OK< first shoe drops, now got a nice holding at Avge £6.43.

[tourist07] 21/5/2008 14:25

Well, I'm back in at £6.61.

Aircraft Carrier contract 99% there, and further £6bn contract moving to fruition. Although I am expecting further downward movement in the market generally, these have proven to be relatively independent.

I expect some revisions to Broker Forecasts for 2009 and 2010 which will put these on a forward PE of 16-17 which feels too low for a stock which:
a) is growing profits;
b) is de-risking (with the JV);
c) is heading towards a re-rating as a Support Services Co'y; and
d) which has some M&A titillation interest.

I don't believe the above are all in the price and have a (round sum) target of £7.50. Happy to hear contrary views.

[tourist07] 30/4/2008 07:55

Good observation, given that they were at each others throats a year or so ago around the joint bid ....

And aren't they competitors? I mean direct competitors on some bids? If so, I would give it real significance ....

[trexpert] 29/4/2008 14:27

I wonder whether the appointment of the CEO of Balfour Beatty as a non-executive director has significance for the future?

[trexpert] 28/4/2008 14:16

Prelim results due on 13 May I think?

[tourist07] 28/4/2008 11:16

But what do I know ... price action this morning suggests an announcement is looming ... nearly always the last to know!

[tourist07] 24/4/2008 16:38

I'm out at the moment ... gov't spending too much money on financial sector and bailing out consumers ... makes me more worried for defence spending.

[enami] 18/4/2008 17:24

Interesting - got a buy signal last night from pattern recognition program.

Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish) Target 751.00 - 770.00

Seems plausible if it caN struggle up to close the gap at 708.



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[tourist07] 14/4/2008 16:37

These seem to have held up well today despite the article in the FT this morning saying that Defence Budget is under threat .... Aircraft Carrier contract specifically m entioned ... FT thought it would probably be annouced soon, but on a delayed implementation.

[tourist07] 30/3/2008 20:44

I suspect that with the Budget now completed that we will see some kind of announcement on the Aircraft Carriers, no? May well come before Mid May which would make that the next key information point.

The pre-close statement was "in line" if I recall, although I expect them to exceed by a little - but nothing earth shattering.

The other key information point, should it happen, would be Paul Lester moving to BAE .... although, if he does, again I would hope they would try to get the Aircraft Carriers (and therefore the JV) sorted before then. It would be very hard for Paul Lester to be sitting the other side of the table finalising that JV given all he knows about V's side of it ... an untenable and irresolvable conflict of interest, I would have thought.

[trexpert] 28/3/2008 20:17

I think it was the Times but there was an official RNS on 27th. On the carriers it is obvious the Treasury and MOD are in a bind as they can't contuinue with everything and they look to not have any planes to put on them anyway! The delays must mean postponed turnover and profit plus they will I assume be still incurring costs. Hence my caution. The results are due mid May and I will probably wait to see these.

[tourist07] 26/3/2008 23:28

Trexpert _ great news. Any particular paper? I would expect these to get back above 6.75 on any such news, unless the contract is materially delayed or reduced. And with a bit of a market rally, that could easily become 7.00

[trexpert] 26/3/2008 19:39

The PFI deal for the RAF tanker deal seems to have been sorted accoridng to he papers today which has to be good for VT. I am out till I see the carrier deal finalised but want to get back in once that is also sorted.

[tourist07] 13/2/2008 05:10

This is ridiculous ... 17.50 last night they were about to lose the order then at 7.07 this morning the gov't is going to express confidence ....

Anyway, a good day and feeling a lot better than when it was at £5.95.

Anyone else watching?

[tourist07] 28/1/2008 23:01

Are there any other thoughts? Or am I just talking to myself here, lol.

Anwyay, good relative strength today ... makes a change in recent weeks.

[tourist07] 27/1/2008 23:57

Hi merob, well I certainly hope not. And having held this far, and through the Interim Statement, I hope we can at least stabilise.

At the risk of stating the obvious, its down to newsflow on the Carrier contract at the moment. V. political, which is not an ideal place to be. If I had to make a guess (which is all it is) I would say that the Carrier Contract will be postponed for a year. This would:
a) allieviate the current PSBR issue which they clearly have;
b) be less of a "climbdown" than pushing it out 2 years - "stability" and all that;
c) enable the JV to move forward - lets not forget that this whole JV has been driven by the MOD

Personally, I suspect the financial impact on the JV will not be that great. I mean all the shipyards are busy at the moment. We will then have to wait while the analysts pore over the numbers and lets see where we get to. Investors in VTG and BAE are used to taking long term views.

My slight worry is that, in this 12mth postponement scenario, the MoD will try to keep some "wriggle room" ... why wouldn't they? If its too much wriggle, it could keep the share where it is for some time.

Just my thoughts, keen to hear others.

[merob] 27/1/2008 08:36

What next for VTG...further downside?

[tourist07] 14/1/2008 19:23

I'm still holding ... not sure I'm feeling that comfortable about it though. I feel there will be a delay, the downside for the share will depend on how long, and I don't really have a view on that. On a positive note, the shipyards are full for next year and the year after (as I understand it) without the Aircraft Carriers, however there was undoubtedly a synergy and re-rating premium pumped into the share over the past 6 months.

These kind of rumours are rarely without some substance, especially from the FT. Is the best hope that some journalist strikes up the theme that because the gov't is wasting taxpayer money at NRK, our strategic defences are "holed under the waterline"?

Maybe I should write to the Torygraph ....

[merob] 11/1/2008 22:37

It still just looks like an excuse for taking profits

at the moment..

[tourist07] 11/1/2008 17:45

Me and my big mouth ... FT Article says MoD may delay carrier contract. Effective "no comment" from VT ... hmmmm, holding for now. Delay is not cancellation ...

Note to self - if its too good to be true, it probably is!

[merob] 11/1/2008 11:12

LOL!

Profit taking?


Strong support @625p

It may get there..?

[tourist07] 10/1/2008 13:46

Sweet as a nut, isn't it? Short FTSE and Long VTG gives you so many "win win" days at the moment!

Plus more contract confirmations in the pipeline, plus the occasional takeover rumour .....