Volex Share Discussion Threads

[brownr0] 13/4/2015 23:15

Massive volume here today down 2% on about 13 quids worth.Moving averages definitely appear to have levelled out around here, MACD tightened up to the point of flat lining too. Patience has been required, even since arrival a few weeks back. Reminds me, must go check how the paints drying.....will let you know when it's done ;).

[imastu pidgitaswell] 10/4/2015 11:27

Burning or spending?

Before saying 'what's the difference?' we need to see cash generation - net operating cashflow. That gives us how much money is being produced from the revenue and cost base, and the cash/debt level shows how much of that cash generation (if it was negative it would be cash burn) is being spent on capital items (i.e. cash spent).

The headline net debt levels ($32m and $12m) don't tell us that (generated versus spent) - previous announcements have said they will be cash neutral. We'll have to see the results in June. But even then, what about the main issue - the future?

It's always a medium term issue - one year's cash generation or indeed cash spend is never a reliable indicator. Capital expenditure by its nature is 'lumpy' - they spent a shed in 2012/13 and 2013/14 on their factory in China (and elsewhere). That will not need to be repeated for a while - but will eventually.

The trouble is, the analyst input on this is pathetic, with the commercial insight of a slug, so we are left with the company's own info - the best source is usually the presentation they give, which include market overviews and future plans. But even those have limited financial visibility.

I guess you have to look at it in terms of risk and reward - at this point, not looking backwards - and make your own judgement. And then pray...

[woodcutter] 09/4/2015 14:58

watching with interest!

i like the director purchases but the continuing history of exceptionals which will appear again in H2 is a concern as is the net debt, which at the last TS was down from $32.2m to $12.2m. They raised nearly $28m in a placing so without looking too much into the detail of working capital etc they seem to be still burning cash.

i guess i need to do much more research berfore considering an investment.

At some point it must reach a floor!

woody

[phowdo] 09/4/2015 10:45

Interesting, chart has one of those spike down (last november) followed by a rounded bowl to same level bottoming patterns. Bulkowski calls them adam & eve bottoms(*). Seen them quite often.

(*)

[cockneyrebel] 09/4/2015 10:40

From Victrex today:

"The first half performance reflects a continuing positive contribution from Consumer Electronics"

CR

[luckymouse] 08/4/2015 13:01

Forming a base here - curving up from spt

[cockneyrebel] 07/4/2015 19:05

Only ugly if you're looking from the top buywell imo.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


The stock is actually up from the mid Nov low - you have to go back some time to find VLX where it wasn't lower 5 months down from a given point like that.

All imo

CR

[buywell2] 07/4/2015 15:01

buywell2 - 30 Jul 2013 - 16:17:29 - 1238 of 2263
None the less the chart looks very dodgy now

Any more negative news and it's a big move south

50p even perhaps

Not for widows or orphans

dyor

[luckymouse] 31/3/2015 19:12

IP - committing suicide on this board really helping everyone lots - tks mate

EDIT - I like your name though fella - clever - keep your spirits up chap. LM

[imastu pidgitaswell] 30/3/2015 12:48

The chart is showing tentative signs of progress - but we have seen that quite a number of times before.

What usually happens then is that Golden Peaks Active Management come out and stomp all over it, dumping more of their formerly 12%+ holding (now c5%) and slamming the price down. Presumably the brilliant intellect that had them buying at higher prices and selling for a loss (to their client - so not their problem, really, as long as the fees keep rolling in...) also cannot compute that if they just laid off the selling for a short period, it might encourage some buyers and the price would rise - at which point they could at least sell some for a lower loss.

But I'm rambling. Nothing else to be done until the bloody share price rises - although still a few more to pick up once the tax relief gets paid in to the SIPP later in April. Probably...

[cockneyrebel] 30/3/2015 10:49

Okay, cheers, perhaps I had the date from last year but if the website says 10th that will be correct imo.

CR

[cockerhoop] 30/3/2015 10:41

Cr,

XPP Q1 IMS is released on the 10th April (at least according to their website)

[cockneyrebel] 30/3/2015 09:16

Toffeeman - I'm not down on my 2013 purchase - I sold out. But then I've bought back in and sold out several times since, each at a loss so it's a bit like I am!

The board changes here and the director buying is what interests me. I suspect I and many others expected too much too fast from the new board when China was slowing down too.

Pretty clear that most people hate VLX now which should mean no good sentiment in the price at all imo - bourn out by little reaction to the trading update imo.

Anyway, Investec out with a buy and a 95p target.

I haven't a clue how long till it gets back to where it was but the decent on the chart definitely looks to have halted imo. Rising copper price might indicate a pick up in demand in the electrical sector - XPP have a trading update on April 13th which might give a better clue perhaps.

All imo

CR

[luckymouse] 29/3/2015 16:55

Close Up

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[luckymouse] 29/3/2015 16:34

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[toffeeman] 28/3/2015 18:35

Hi CR - like many I guess you are down 30% on your 2013 purchase - how long before it get's back to par do you reckon?

[brownr0] 27/3/2015 13:36

Pretty insignificant volume here today considering there's been a trading update. Any thoughts on why this is? Thanks

[imastu pidgitaswell] 27/3/2015 10:35

The booking of "the final exceptional costs in relation to VTP" in the year at least draws a line under all the grief of the past two(+) years - no more rights issues, restructurings, hirings, firings, reorganisations, business process re-engineering, exceptional costs, yada, yada yada...

From now on, from April 6th, (once this year is finally published), the numbers should be clean. All done, now make some, er, flipping money...

[philanderer] 27/3/2015 09:38

On the watchlist.

Investec retains 'buy' increases tp from 87p to 93p

N+1 Singer 'hold' (retains)

finnCap 'buy' target 85p (retains)

[steveo18] 27/3/2015 07:40

We will book exceptional costs in relation to VTP in H2



Yeah sock it to us. Another exceptional

[rathkum] 27/3/2015 07:36

Let's wait and see what the market reaction is.

[cockneyrebel] 27/3/2015 07:17

Positive trading update - quite a rarity!

Explains the recent director buying perhaps.

Think a lot sold when there wasn't a trading update recently which has kept the stock this low imo.

All imo

CR